Meteorologist Bob Rose of the Lower Colorado River Authority offers some thoughts on the dry spell.
"Weather conditions have been unusually dry this month, with most areas so far reporting little to no rain. The outlook for rain the next few days looks bleak and it’s possible we may end the month with no additional rain. So far this month, Austin Mabry has reported 0.04 inches [the 10th driest on record], [and] Austin-Bergstrom 0.05 inches…the 3rd driest on record…"
"Most climate experts are puzzled as to why the pattern across Texas and the southern US has recently turned so dry and why the expected wet signal from El Nino has failed to develop. [They] do expect a change in the overall pattern beginning in December, with most calling for a trend toward increased precipitation. The current situation does point out that most El Nino’s are different from each other, with each one producing different results across Texas."
Bob says other El Nino winters have started dry and ended with plenty of rain–notably 1987-88, 1991-92, and 1997-98. So flash floods could be just around the corner.