Tag Archives: AF 447

Still Air Chance

The Popular Mechanics analysis of the flight deck transcript of the 2009 Air France crash into the Atlantic is chilling:

02:14:23 (Robert) Putain, on va taper… C’est pas vrai!
Damn it, we’re going to crash… This can’t be happening!

02:14:25 (Bonin) Mais qu’est-ce que se passe?
But what’s happening?

02:14:27 (Captain) 10 degrès d’assiette…
Ten degrees of pitch…

When I was young, in the 1950s, Air France was rather widely known as Air Chance. Seems it would still be a good idea, if you can help it, not to fly Air Frog.

Black boxes search goes on

The French research vessel, the Pourquoi Pas? (the Why Not?) is still searching for AF 447 and its black boxes, an effort due to end in mid-August. Now Airbus is offering to pay for another search after that.

Giving up on the black boxes

The U.S. Navy has stopped searching for the flight deck and data recorders that went down with the remains of Air France 447 in the Atlantic off Brazil. French surface ships gave up Friday, though a French submarine continues to prowl the depths, and there is talk of more searching begining July 14. So, with still no clear proof of what happened, let the speculation continue in earnest.

The Electric Jet

Computer scientist Edsger Dijkstra invented much of software technology yet only used a computer for email and browsing the Web. He was still writing with a fountain pen when he died in 2002.

Dijkstra once told me that he would never consent to fly on the space shuttle because he didn’t trust the software that controlled it.

With the coming introduction of the Boeing 787, we’re all pretty soon going to be flying in craft controlled by software. Dave, an Airbus pilot who already does, explains why we shouldn’t worry.

But some still do, and, especially since the loss of AF 447, I must admit that I’m one of them.

AF 447’s breakup

af447tail.jpeg

This photoshopped image, by a commenter on this pilot’s forum, shows where the jet’s recovered vertical stabilizer apparently tore off–though whether in mid-air or on impact with the ocean is unknown. Meanwhile, previous notions of a superbolt of lightning frying the plane’s electronics apparently have been quashed by this updated meteorological analysis:

"* Lightning — Though in earlier versions of this study I had identified lightning as occurring in this mesoscale convective system, recent evidence from spaceborne and sferic sensors is pointing to the possibility that this system contained no lightning. Soundings do indicate moderate levels of instability, but there are indications in the literature that cumulonimbus clouds in oceanic equatorial regions entrain considerable quantities of drier, cooler air that dampen upward vertical motion in the lower portions of the storm, and in some way this reduces charge separation. In any case it does look fairly likely that we can rule out a lightning strike as being a factor in the A330 crash."

Indicating that turbulence within the storm apparently was the cause of the breakup at altitude unless there was some other factor which only analysis of the debris and/or the voice and data recordings could show.

AF 447: Informed speculation

Now that the Brazilian air force’s media-assisted "debris trail" has been debunked, it’s probably best to ignore whatever the mainstream media produces on the disappearance. But several good sources remain. One of the best is the (mostly) informed speculation at Airliners.net. Best weather analysis still is here.

UPDATE:  Well, make that debunked, and then resucitated with more detail than before.