You might think, with all the AGW hysteria, and the Dems rushing to double our electric bills, that the whole globe would be saturated in CO2. You would be wrong. Sure, this satellite mapping of the earth's atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide is a year old. But it's also the first one ever made, and was assembled from data collected between '02 and '08. The first one ever made. Think about that for a minute. I'm no great hand at graphics, but it sure looks to me like the major culprits are California and China. So how about it Speaker Pelosi? How about starting by doubling your energy bills?

Via Baby Troll.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The NYTime's shrill economist Paul Krugman is the latest shouter to accuse AGW critics of insufficient fealty to the planet. As if we had any place else to go, thanks to our greedy pols who effectively killed the space travel program after Apollo. Henceforth, we got low orbit "travel," and no more.

Here's an easy-reading answer to Krugman, et al. Reminds me of a chat I had with a local meteorologist friend not long ago. He's often told me how the best computer forecast models struggle with predicting Texas weather more than a few days out. The atmosphere is just too complicated.

Yet he believes in AGW predictions out to fifty years because "those are different models." Smile. I suspect, since he can see as well as me that temperature data since 1998 has conflicted with the predictions, his belief has more to do with the politics of his employers who pay his salary. As for Krugman, well, he's been predicting economic collapse since, oh, 2001. How's that coming, Paul?

Via Fresh Bilge.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rain, rain, glorious rain. Boy did it pour this morning. For a good ten minutes, overwhelming the gutters as always, raising anew the question of why we have gutters at all. Water even ponded in the Back Forty. It kept our high temp for the day at no more than 88 degrees. Whoo-hoo.

Mrs. Charm said she had left the "rain magnets" out, meaning the cushions on the aluminum chairs on the patio, and that must be what did it. Uh, actually it was a weak cold front. But, whatever. We'll take it--especially considering that some people missed it altogether.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 06:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Mr. Boy went off to four weeks of day camp at the JCC this morning. He rebuffed Mrs. Charm's offer to help him find his group at the flag raising. Being a rising fourth grader he's too big for nanny stuff. He was looking forward to a hot game of Ga-ga, an Israeli form of dodge ball. With a forecast high of 102, it definitely will be hot.

Meanwhile, I was honored to have two posts linked in the new Haveil Havalim, a carnival of Jewish blog posts founded way back when by Soccer Dad. It is, appropriately, the Hot and Humid Edition. Haveil Havalim means Vanity of Vanities, a reference to King Solomon's discovery that materialism for its own sake is a dead end. Or something like that.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well, a reasonable chance for some tomorrow night, anyhow, which will feel good after today's hundred degree heat (it's 100 in the city at the moment). But the real chances, according to the federal Climate Prediction Center begin in October and last through April of next year. Thanks to the anticipated return of El Nino, they're forecasting precip to be above normal for that period. After two years of dry, that would be sweet.

Via KVUE's Mark Murray.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 03:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Surprise, surprise. Barry's EPA hasn't done its homework:

"EPA has not done its own evaluation of the global warming theory. Rather, it has relied on analyses by others, mostly the U.N.'s IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report. That report, however, was a political document, not a scientific one."

EPA has, however, quashed an in-house rebuttal of the Dictator's Club. Can't have dissension, oh no. That wouldn't be, uh, scientific.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

"As the U.S. House of Representatives [narrowly passed] a climate-change bill, the Australian Parliament is preparing to kill its own country's carbon-emissions scheme. Why? A growing number of Australian politicians, scientists and citizens once again doubt the science of human-caused global warming."

Well jolly good for them. Finally some common sense. Not that it will have any influence on our political crooks. Now to see whether the Senate has more honesty. I suspect not. Some think the American electorate will not remember who done this deed when their electricity bills double and the economy craters. I think they will, and the Dems will pay big time.

Hairnet and giveaway is the translation of the bill's cap and trade title by Steve Hayward at No Left Turns who suspects the last-minute bill has so many loopholes for favored (read big contributor) outfits that it will have no measureable effect on "the risks of global warming." But, come on, we can't change the climate. How smart do you have to be to figure that out?

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

"Since June 12, Austin-Travis County EMS paramedics have responded to 37 heat emergencies. Included in the elevated response data for heat emergencies [were] construction workers, patients with pre-existing conditions including pregnancy, also several very young patients."

Meanwhile, the forecast is for more of the same through the July 4 weekend. And probably thereafter.

UPDATE:  Thursday's highs at Camp Mabry and the airport were records: 106 at Mabry, 107 at ABIA. The LCRA's Bob Rose says those were the second hottest June days in recorded Austin history, which I might add only goes back to the 1840s or so.

The warmists will say this is Global Warming. That's what  they say when it's freezing, too. And, probably, when there's a big sale on at Fry's. Nevertheless, with the ground thoroughly heated after weeks of this, we can expect plenty more records ahead.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Six days (through Thursday) of triple-digit highs (was only 97 today) with, fortunately, some relief in sight, according to Bob Rose:

A few coastal showers will be possible the latter part of next week, but the majority of the region looks to stay dry.  If this pattern develops as currently forecast, we should break out of our streak of 100-degree temperatures the latter part of next week.

That would be nice. Sunday morning is Summer Solstice, after all. Cooler days are coming...

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This photoshopped image, by a commenter on this pilot's forum, shows where the jet's recovered vertical stabilizer apparently tore off--though whether in mid-air or on impact with the ocean is unknown. Meanwhile, previous notions of a superbolt of lightning frying the plane's electronics apparently have been quashed by this updated meteorological analysis:

"* Lightning -- Though in earlier versions of this study I had identified lightning as occurring in this mesoscale convective system, recent evidence from spaceborne and sferic sensors is pointing to the possibility that this system contained no lightning. Soundings do indicate moderate levels of instability, but there are indications in the literature that cumulonimbus clouds in oceanic equatorial regions entrain considerable quantities of drier, cooler air that dampen upward vertical motion in the lower portions of the storm, and in some way this reduces charge separation. In any case it does look fairly likely that we can rule out a lightning strike as being a factor in the A330 crash."

Indicating that turbulence within the storm apparently was the cause of the breakup at altitude unless there was some other factor which only analysis of the debris and/or the voice and data recordings could show.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

Burger King apparently quashed the right of franchisee Mirabile Investment Corporation (MIC), which owns more than 40 Burger Kings across Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi, to continue these signs. Nice try, Mirabile. Way to conform, Burger King. No wonder Wendy's has you beat.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

It doesn't do most people any good to question the assertions of the acolytes of the First Church of Global Warming. Except, uh, when you're a famous physicist named Freeman Dyson:

"The change that’s now going on is very strongly concentrated in the Arctic. In fact in three respects, it’s not global, which I think is very important. First of all, it is mainly in the Arctic. Secondly, it’s mainly in the winter rather than summer. And thirdly, it’s mainly in the night rather than at the daytime. In all three respects, the warming is happening where it is cold, not where it is hot."

You're still mocked and shouted down, of course. But, uh, you know, you don't care. Good thing heretics are no longer burned. Yet.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Fifty percent composite airframe (read plastic) and its first fly-by-wire is Boeing's new airliner aborning. If, as some speculate, Air France 447 crashed into the Atlantic May 31 because of lightning-induced electrical problems with its computers, Boeing's robotic Dreamliner could turn into its Nightmare--and ours. But, then, with half the airline market already invested in fly-by-wire Airbus, well... There'll be plenty of pain to go around.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

I was willing to hear out the warmists on their Chicken Little bit until the Dictator's Club weighed into it. I mean, come on, this is the outfit whose human rights council is run by tyrants who spend its time condemning Israel, while its Muslim members oppress women, gays, Christians, Jews, etc.

Now comes that paragon of corruption, Kofi Annan, issuing a phony little warmist addendum that draws a sneer from an expert that it is "a poster child for how to lie with statistics...worse than fiction." Isn't it about time somebody figured out what's going on here? It ain't science, that's for sure.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 04:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Now that the Brazilian air force's media-assisted "debris trail" has been debunked, it's probably best to ignore whatever the mainstream media produces on the disappearance. But several good sources remain. One of the best is the (mostly) informed speculation at Airliners.net. Best weather analysis still is here.

UPDATE:  Well, make that debunked, and then resucitated with more detail than before.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Scientists are getting so desperate for the return of sunspots that they are now counting sunspecks. The one on the left is fading away, the one in the middle is a "dead pixel," an artifact of the SOHO spacecraft, and the two on the right are the latest candidates for sunspots. I'm wondering if the lack of activity will mean a cooler-than-usual summer. Well, I can dream, anyhow, as our daytime temps at the rancho climb steadily into the 90s.

 Via Watts Up With That.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)

Back in the day, Air Force pilots used to joke about "Air Chance." Some civilians still mutter darkly about the fly-by-wire, automated Airbus, although this apparently is its first major crash with passengers. For now the proposed explanation for the disappearance of Flight 447 over the mid-Atlantic, is severe turbulence, a possible lightning strike and hail damage.

Yet airliners are designed and pilots are trained to handle weather. It's tempting, in this day of terrorism, to assume it was a bomb. Reports of simultaneous electrical failure and loss of cabin pressure suggest something like that. But they'll have to find the wreckage, and hopefully the black (actually orange) flight data and voice recorders before we will ever know the cause for certain. If then.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The USS Skate surfaces at the North Pole in March. The forty-year-old photo undermines global warmists' recurrent complaint that the pole is melting due to our SUV's, coal-burning power plants and other Gorebot fantasies. In fact, the melting has been recurring for a long time--at least since 1817.

Via, in part, Numberwatch.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 02:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

It's always hard to tell with the Hill Country Fruit Council's guide to finding peaches, whether the "closed for season" remarks for some growers are for this year or refer to last year and just haven't been updated yet. But the April 7 freeze appears to have zapped more than a few of them, including the Marburger Orchard in Fredericksburg. They say "No Peaches" straight out on their site. So I expect we will see a slimmer supply at the H.E.B. than usual this year. Alas.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

The next time you hear Democrats assert that they must stop the use of coal to make electricity because the North Pole is melting from warming sea water, remember this planned assessment of a month ago, and its finding this week. The north polar ice is a hundred percent thicker than expected. Instead of the two meters anticipated, it is four meters thick. Twelve feet, y'all. What warming sea water?

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Even if you don't believe the globe is warming, painting roofs and roads white, or some other light color, would sure cut air-conditioning bills and go far in eliminating the heat-island effect. Not that I want the rancho's roof white. But I don't have to worry. Simple solutions never appeal to big government. They don't produce new jobs for the bureaucracy or more tax money for pet projects. Still... Painting roofs and roads white. What a concept.

Via Instapundit.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (6)

We thought the smoke in the air yesterday was the usual spring influx from the Chiapan farmers of southern Mexico burning the scrub off their fields to prepare for planting.

But it was actually coming from the northwest, above Fort Worth, where the drought-induced wildfires have burned-out a couple of small towns. Since some one hundred ninety-nine counties are affected so far, the governor has called for help from the national guard and FEMA. More wildfires appear to be burning around the Fort Hood area which is closer to the rancho but still a comfortable distance. Forecast rain tonight and tomorrow will help, if it shows up.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The climate change sheeple want everybody to swtich off their lights for an hour at 8:30 p.m. tonight in protest. A far better idea would be to leave them on and, instead, watch this video.

Via Instapundit.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 06:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

This is shaping up to be a major disaster for thousands of people. The Seablogger, having lived in the area and his mother still living there, has quite a bit to say about it--as well as correcting some of Big Media's usual laziness. You'd think they could get and read some topo maps. But noooo... Google it, you goofuses.

UPDATE:  The river seems, mercifully, to have crested.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

We got lucky in yesterday afternoon's thunderstorm. We got at least half an inch that will further green up the lawn and trees at the rancho--and sprout some more yellow and pink wildflowers in the bar ditches, among the sparse bluebonnets. Mr. B. and I read right through it. Missed the hail entirely, said to be of the three-inch variety nearby, smashing vehicle windows at one car dealership. Everything was still wet from overnight rains when Mrs. Charm and I took our morning walk thirty minutes ago. Some big storms--green, yellow and red on the weather service radar--are pounding Uvalde at this hour. But they're headed for San Antonio, not Austin.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Watts Up With That documents yet another (number 85, in fact) lazy, half-witted location for a weather service temperature guage. You know, the dandy devices that keep assuring us we're all going to die from AGW unless we turn our money over to Al Gore? Something tells me the best antitode antidote for run-a-muck government, for once, may be a book - and old-fashioned revolution.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well, trying to, anyhow, before Barry & Co. further ruin the economy with cap and trade.

I have meteorologist friends whose opinions I respect on most things weather subjects who solemnly believe the global warming stuff. But, try as I may, I just can't accept the idea that puny man could be damaging the whole planet -- especially not with a gas which trees and plants need to grow. I do not trust the UN, and the so-called climate models, backed by shrill alarmists like Al Gore and James Hansen, have just never impressed me. There's too much evidence against them.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

These are the days of spring in Central Texas, and one only wishes they would last all year. With what little rain we've had so far, alas, the ditches along the highways aren't filling with the usual red, yellow and pink flowers, and bluebonnets have hardly made an appearance and probably won't be abundant in any case. And the scorching days are coming. You can feel them when the early evening hours are still hovering around seventy-five degrees, before the natural dip back into the low sixties.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The flood advisory passed away as the rain pretty much stopped at the rancho by late morning. But more is expected overnight tonight and all day tomorrow--none of it likely to be heavy enough to cause flooding, according to KXAN meteorologist Jim Spencer. Just enough to green things up nicely for spring. Good deal.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

We're under a flood advisory from the Austin-San Antonio office of the National Weather Service :

"AT 644 AM CDT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WERE FALLING AT RATES
APPROACHING AN INCH AN HOUR.  RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT
HAS BEGUN TO SATURATE THE SOIL AND AREA CREEKS ARE RESPONDING.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN MORE RUNOFF."

LCRA Hydrologic gauges around Austin show almost two inches of rain at many spots in the past forty-eight hours. (Three to four inches seems to be the norm out in the hills.) And more rain is forecast through Saturday. Remains to be seen if this is the big one. But our droughts almost always end with floods.

MORE:  We're unlikely, however, to get anywhere near the fifteen to eighteen inches we'd need to permanently end the drought, according to KVUE meteorologist Mark Murray. It will help green things up for spring.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The months-long drought combined with a downed power line due to today's strong wind started a forest fire in Bastrop County just east of Austin. Ten homes have been destroyed so far, with another two hundred threatened. No rain at all in the forecast, but the wind is expected to subside by tomorrow night.

UPDATE:  At least twenty-three homes and nine businesses taken by the fire through the Bastrop pines so far. More wind forecast tomorrow. SUNDAY: Wind is light and the fire seems to be mostly under control.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 06:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Lightning, as you've never seen it before. It comes in the first few seconds of the video, so don't miss it. Of course, you can always play it over again.

Via meteorologist Mark Murray, KVUE.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Rain is good. We're supposed to be getting more of it this afternoon and into tonight. But there's also a watch out for tornadoes that could be popping out of the severe thunderstorms. Not good. Fortunately it's mostly northeast of us.

Via the Seablogger.

UPDATE:  The thunderstorms swept through about 10 p.m., leaving behind about a half an inch of rain and some pea-size hail. Fortunately the storms, with wind gusts to sixty mph, were moving pretty fast so were gone in about fifteen minutes. Looks like Oklahoma got the tornadoes.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Wind's really picking up at the rancho, gusting to twenty-five thirty-five out of the southeast whence normally cometh our rain-making Gulf moisture. Indeed, the forecast is for thunderstorms overnight. LCRA meteorologist Bob Rose thinks we may get some real rain over the next three days, possibly the most we've had since mid-November.

In fact, Rose, noticing that the southern Jet Stream is becoming more active (and thus capable of guiding Pacific storm fronts our way), is thinking something I was wondering about the other day: that the 2008 drought might just finally get busted later this month into March. If so, it would be by a flood, of course. Floods are the way droughts break hereabouts. But we'll take it.

UPDATE:  By 9 a.m. Monday, according to LCRA's hydrologic system of rain gauges, one-half to three-quarters of an inch of rain seems to be the norm over the area since midnight. Nice to see water ponding in the gutters again.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

So, according to Henrik Svensmark:

No sunspots = more clouds = lower temperatures.

The Central Texas winter, which began quite early last year, should be more or less over by March 1. Let's just hope.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

Having sold the family sloop, we no longer pay much attention to the ups and downs of the reservoir called Lake Travis. It has been quite low in previous droughts, but seems to be trying to set a new record in the ongoing one. It is now at six hundred and fifty-five feet below above mean sea level, which is roughly twenty-six feet below normal. Worse, it is forecast to continue its plunge to around six hundred and twenty feet. 

Nevertheless, in the interest of soothing hysterics who worry about the droughts of global warming (though it is the potential rising of sea water rather than the falling of lake surfaces that has them upset), this has happened before, and quickly (say, within thirty days) has come back to this. So, in other words, unless you own a lakeside home (which is now a gully-side home) there's almost certainly nothing to worry about. What goes down has, historically, come right back up.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

...John Theon of NASA, says Hansen's global warming data is bosh. No surprise, there. When science turns messianic, it's time to watch out. Hansen has even declared that energy industry execs who question his data should be jailed. Sweet reversal.

UPDATE:  Ah but, meanwhile, in Obamalot, the warnings continue as if nothing had changed. How brilliant.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Here in Central Texas, anyhow. Severe to moderate. Yesterday's drizzle, meanwhile, preceded a deep cold front. We're back in the icebox.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 04:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Just a light drizzle. Not enough to even nudge the drought. But it should take some of the ash juniper pollen out of the air--which will help diminish my "cedar fever" allergy.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Looks like this morning's low of eighteen at the airport and thirty in the central city will be the worst we get even after the advertised Arctic air mass dives east and southeast on Thursday. It's expected to bypass us in South Central Texas, partly because of another air mass of Gulf moisture pushing northwest tonight. So we'll sympathize with all you freezing snow bunnies but rejoice that we don't have to join you in the misery.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Finally, I awaken to sunshine and a moderate warm morning. Temps are climbing into the seventies. Now that's the real Central Texas Christmas I remember. Others may crave cold. But not me.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well, I made it past another solstice, without feeling the need for an Anglo-Saxon costume drama. Just a quiet day, despite the frigid aftermath of another overnight Blue Norther. Finishing Iron Sunrise, another good Charles Stross SF novel, and thinking of the seasonal carols of my youth, Adeste Fideles and Hark The Herald Angels Sing. Then I did the annual reading of his Maccabees book to Mr. Boy before we lit the first Hanukkah candle. For the next few days we will be singing Santa and Reindeer songs for his and Mrs. Charm's secular celebration of Christmas.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Finally, it's warming up again at the rancho after a seemingly endless period of thrity-degree days and nights. But meteorologist Bob Rose says we're due for more blasts of arctic cold this weekend and next week. How long, as AGW's critics like to say, does the climate have to cool before the warmists recognize that Al Gore's warnings are lies? Not to mention the hitherto unremarked but probable climatic effects of the solar wind's surprise assault.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (11)

It's well below freezing out in the hills, with the twenty-three at Menard the lowest. Just thirty-one degrees at the rancho but we're inside the urban heat island. Bit of freezing rain, but not enough to jog the gauges of the Lower Colorado River Authority, much less crack the regional drought.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

A family friend, recently removed from Maryland to Houston, leaves a phone message not to bother to return the call just to share in her amazement: "It's snowing in Houston!" Fortunately, it's merely freezing in Austin.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

November ended very dry, putting Austin in the exceptional drought category, i.e. the worst possible. We're surrounded by an extreme drought area (the red on the map) with no end in sight. Our driest year since 1956. Odd combination: no rain and an early winter of chilly days andfrigid nights. Yech.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 02:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Not good, says Lower Colorado River Authority meteorologist Bob Rose, and not likely to get better soon:

"Year to date rainfall at Austin-Camp Mabry through Tuesday total[ed] only 15.61 inches, over 15 inches below normal.  As of today, 2008 is the 4th driest year on record, dating back to 1856 and is the driest year since 1956!  This is a very intense drought, rivaling some of the terrible drought years of the 1950s. And long-range forecasts are not very encouraging for rain going into early 2009."

It is worth pointing out, for Global Warmists and other hysterics, that 1856, when reliable weather records began being kept in the central city, was only one hundred fifty-two years ago. A lot of droughts certainly occurred before then, and some of them undoubtedly were worse than this one. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (8)

Al Gore, call your office. Seems those allegedly "indisputable" climate forecast models lack a reliable estimate of the soil's significant (but very slow) contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide. Meaning global warming predictions are overestimated.

Via Hot Air.

MORE GLOBAL WARMING DEBUNKING: From, of all places, the U.S. Senate. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

What a laugher. No science is beyond dispute. Dispute is what science does. Only a pol would say something so stupid.

Via the Seablogger.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Nevermind Barry's cult of personality, it's the global warmists we have to fear. The ones who want to remake our economy to resolve their notion of eco-pocolypse. Though Barry apparently will step up offshore drilling, he is also likely to back the EPA's impending enforcement of carbon dioxide reductions (better hold your breath), and maybe buy up Detroit for the UAW to make teenie, weenie greenie cars. (Just so long as the Dems don't require us to buy them.)

Meanwhile the Seablogger, freshly home from a blogged cruise to the Virgin Islands, sees perfidy behind the recent alleged NASA "blunder" in announcing October as the warmest month ever--when, in fact, it was one of the coolest. Anything to promote the Gorebot cult and Nancy Pelosi's green "recovery," don't you know. Big Media may get its long-touted depression yet if Barry and his party deepen the recession. At least we'd have the pleasure of seeing him voted out after one term. Or is he, perhaps, smarter than that? We're going to find out.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Another chill night at the rancho, which brought out a duet between a Hoot Owl and a Screech Owl, high in the maples of the upper forty a while ago. The cry of the hooty sounds like his name. The cry of the Screech is more bizarre--rather like the repeated whinney of a horse.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday morning's low was only about forty at the rancho, but the airport recorded two degrees below freezing. After a blistering summer, I was looking forward to a mild fall. Instead... Was only thirty-one in the back forty by first light today. Brrrr. All part of what the LCRA's Bob Rose says looks like an early winter. The good part is his forecast of normal fall rain, though we haven't seen it yet.

ONE GOOD THING:  LCRA has updated their Hydromet Web site to make the maps easier to read.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)

Hope you can read the key. We are only in moderate drought, which is unusual considering this has been the sixth driest January thru October, at 14.95 total inches of rain at Camp Mabry, since 1856. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

His Holland America cruise ship has "a nice deep sea heave," Alan Sullivan reports, as he sails into hurricane weather out of Miami. The water in the upper deck swimming pools is "jumping and sliding like limbo dancers." He had to pay one hundred dollars for two hundred fifty minutes of Web connection time via satellite, so he's limited in what he can do. But he's already promising photos soon. Click on the blog title at the top of the page to check for the latest post.

UPDATE:  A nautical tracking map shows where his ship, the Noordam, is at the moment. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 03:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Cylindrical magnetic passageways about the width of Earth, depicted here with a measuring satellite in the foreground, open and close between Earth and the Sun every eight minutes. They allow tons of high-energy particles to flow one-way across ninety-three million miles as they form above the equator and then roll over the poles.

Satellites have flown through them, measured their dimensions and sensed the particles flowing past. Now scientists are studying the portals to see how they work and what they do. Among the unanswered questions: why do they form every eight minutes? Here's betting they affect our climate a lot more than carbon dioxide does. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

As carbon dioxide goes up, the global average temperature keeps coming down. Not exactly news this month--in the record cold and snow in the USA, London, Switzerland, etc.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 02:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tonight will be our fourth campout in the woods with Mr. B.'s cub scout den. This time we'll only be a few miles from the rancho. It's forecast to be in the high seventies during the day but drop into the upper forties overnight.

I'm bringing two radios, just in case, in order to listen to the Longhorns game. I expect them to beat Missouri, but I want to be sure to hear them do it. Watching it would be nice, but I never bought one of those portable televisions. No, that isn't true. We had one on the family sloop years ago, but it was stolen. Anyway, where we're going is in a valley between two hills, so the teevee reception might be poor. If necessary, I'll hike up the shortest hill to listen to the game. But it probably won't be.

UPDATE:  It was fun sitting in a camp chair, watching Orion climb the sky and listening to the Longhorns as they thrashed Missouri, 56-31. Next up, Oklahoma State, should be a bit tougher.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

NASA, for one, considers unproven Henrik Svensmark's theory that cosmic rays provide seed nuclei for the low-altitude clouds that keep earth's temperature low, thus having much more effect on climate than the favorite notion of the carbon dioxide movement. "Speculation," said the agency scientists who recently pronounced the current solar minimum the least since the space age began--meaning the solar wind is subsiding and cosmic rays are increasing.

Svensmark's and  science writer Nigel Calder's 2007 book, The Chilling Stars, A New Theory of Climate Change, shows the theory has ample evidence to be respectable, far more than the U.N.'s notion that industrial and automotive carbon dioxide will make the seas rise, the tropics move north, and give the Democrats another tax (carbon footprint) on which to hang their favorite boondoggles. It's a theory that invites collaboration from scientists as diverse as particle physicists, astronomers and biologists, and it really should interest NASA, as it involves such climate drivers as supernovae and the solar system's passage through the spiral arms of the Milky Way galaxy.

But, even as a growing bunch of amateur scientists wonder if the sun's lack of solar-wind-increasing sunspots this year could mean we're headed for global cooling, even a mini Ice Age, Svensmark isn't assuming the leadership of a cosmic ray movement. He says it would be "scientifically rash" to use his theory to offer any firm climate forecast for decades ahead. Instead, he's hard at work searching for even more evidence for it.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 06:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The mosquitoes, however, are hanging on, even in the mid-day. I planted a new Bourbon, the Souvenir de Malmaison, shortly after noon today, and wound up with four mosquito bites for my trouble. Hey, it's already October, and the nights are in the upper fifties. So where's the fall we usually get around this time? You know, the one where the yellowjackets and mosquitoes give it up for another year? At least we don't have any kudzu.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 04:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

The liars in the U.S. Congress snuck plenty of pork into their credit "crisis" giveaway, but none so obnoxious as the one that lays the groundwork for a carbon tax. The global warmists would never be able to get such a thing passed in open discussion, especially not during a recession. So they cheated.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 02:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Officially, only twenty-seven people died when Hurricane Ike hit Texas on Sept. 13. But hundreds are still missing, at least three-hundred and thirty-one of them, to be exact. Many of the missing could also be dead, if rumors of bodies still being pulled from Galveston Bay are accurate. Some of them may have been trapped on Bolivar Peninsula, but many more also are from Galveston Island.

Via Houblog.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

NASA says observers are seeing the birth of a true sunspot on the sun's face, the first of its kind since the solar minimum began in January. That should alleviate any concerns about a new Ice Age coming in the years ahead. But some worriers say it's really too soon to tell if this spot will grow and last or merely fade like others of its class have done.

UPDATE:  The Seablogger prefers to call it a "sun-sputter," and, indeed, the day after the announcement, it's almost gone. Meanwhile, NASA held a presser to announce the sun's output of solar wind is at a fifty-year low. What that means for us, they didn't say, except that more cosmic rays will get into the inner solar system. There is a theory about the rays, however, which calls global warming into question.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 02:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

They loved the sunsets in Gilchrist, the working-class people in the seashore homes, but the people are just about all gone now. Hurricane Ike wiped most of the little village away. Its collection of mainly homes on stilts, just above the flat ground of the narrowest point on Bolivar Peninsula, was just east of devastated Galveston.

The peninsula in general, and Gilchrist in particular, took the fierce right side of the Category 2 hurricane: the 110-mph winds and a storm surge estimated at 15 feet or more (topped by 20-foot high battering waves). Combined, they swept much of Gilchrist clean, as shown in the Accuweather shot above, and in these before and after photos. No one knows how many residents elected to stay to ride out the storm. Apparently few survived. There isn't even enough debris to search. Gilchrist was one place whose peril was not overestimated.

Via Jeff Masters.

UPDATE:  The owners of the lone, surviving house above finally return to it. Turns out the photo is not by Accuweather, but by Smiley N. Pool, now at the Houston Chronicle, formerly of the Austin daily.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 03:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (6)

The Texas Rainmaker, who did not evacuate, has a good post on the storm, the aftermath, and the continued deprivations in the old (1830s-40s) capital of Texas. His photographs tell the story of downed trees and signage, blocked roads and long lines at gas stations and groceries better than words. Our evacuated friends from Kingwood, on Houston's northwest side, are still in Austin, but not staying at the rancho as they have two dogs. A wonder they found a hotel that would take the dogs, but they did.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Not hardly. It was something a lot bigger, a lot nosier, and still necessary after all these years.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

It's bad enough to have no air-conditioning on a sticky, hot September night in Houston and Galveston, where most neighborhoods have no power and aren't likely to get any for some days yet.

But the mosquitoes. Yipes. Especially if you hadn't stocked up on repellant beforehand. And, now, with all that standing water. Fortunately, a cold front is due through Texas this afternoon. These are the last days of summer. A few nights at sixty degrees should cut back on the mosquito population pretty thoroughly. But getting the electricity back on may take longer. Glad we haven't lost it in Austin.

UPDATE:  We actually got some rain overnight. Well, a sprinkle or two. Probably due to the impending cold front more than whatever's left of Ike, which is way far east of here.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A Galveston landmark, in the city's East End Historical District, the Sonnentheil House appears to have survived Hurricane Ike handily. And why not? It survived the 1900 hurricane that stripped the island city of many homes, and four others.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)

Drilling is a good start, nuclear power plants are, too. But Hurricane Ike will show why they won't be enough:

"I think people need to understand how profoundly the [Houston area] refining being down is going to affect the nation. Even if the refineries could get back going the minute the storm passes, it will take at least a week to get going again. And, it should be noted, the refineries will not get going the minute the storm passes. America needs to build more."  --Dr. Melissa Clouthier, Houston blogger.

Via Instapundit.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This could be my last post for a while, if the power goes out tonight or early tomorrow, as it may. The wind is picking up. No rain yet. But we have an upgrade in the weather forecast and there is an abundance of trees around power lines in Austin.

Weather service is now looking at 50 percent chance of thunderstorms tonight and wind gusts to 45 mph. Then, early Saturday, 100 percent change of rain, heavy at times, with gusts to 50 mph. Still looks like a normal fall thunderstorm, even with the wind gusts, so long as they're not sustained for long periods. Fortunately for us, Ike's core is forecast to stay well to our east. If you want to follow events in Houston and Galveston, where the worst is certain to occur, go to KHOU television for their video reports as long as they have at least generator power to stay on the web. Also this Houston area blogger, and this one. Both have local blog rolls for more. And Houston Chronicle's blog.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

It doesn't say much for education when the Austin public school system joins in hyping a hurricane hundreds of miles away from its forecast path. They're letting Mr. B. and his chums out three hours early today.

He called me this morning from a teacher-telephone station on the playground, sounding worried, as of course he would be since he's in the midst of group-think and not likely getting the local forecast for clear skies this afternoon and only normally-gusty winds tonight with just a forty percent chance of rain. What nonsense. There is some, but only just, concern that the wobbly storm may track farther west than the now-forecast radical curve northeast through East Texas, which would miss us entirely. It's a wide storm, true enough, but the west side of it, where we'll be, isn't likely to carry much wind or rain this far inland.

MORE: Not saying there's no danger, just that it's not likely here. Coastal Texas already is seeing flooding with a big storm surge expected to seriously threaten life and property in the Galveston-Houston area. Could be Indianola, 1886, all over again down there. JD, at Mouth of the Brazos, already has fled. Check out this KHOU Houston aerial video of Galveston taken about 4 p.m. Friday showing waves routinely topping the seawall. That can only get worse as Ike crosses the coast.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Lots of folks at the grocery this morning buying up bottled water, batteries and canned goods, in anticipation of possible lengthy power outages if Ike's core comes close to Austin after crossing the coast early Saturday. Mom, visiting friends in Maryland, is scheduled to come back Saturday but now may have to wait until Sunday, if Austin's airport is closed. Texas Longhorns home game Saturday with Arkansas has already been postponed. 

Local forecast sounded dire yesterday: Not just torrential rain all-day and all-night Saturday, but sustained winds of 50 to 70 mph. Meaning trees downed and flying limbs and other debris. Today's forecast is milder, with winds only gusting to 45 mph and less rain. Evacuees from the coast still may be sorry they came. All depends on how close the core comes to us. Fifty miles east would be good. Ten miles west would be a true disaster. Meanwhile Ike is already bigger than Katrina in '05. It's pussyfooting through a patch of cool water in mid-Gulf this morning, but is expected to strengthen. Lots of uncertainy yet, but Houston looks now to bare the brunt of the winds and rain, and the storm surge is expected to be a killer on the coast, sweeping miles inland. Possibly overtopping Galveston's seventeen-foot seawall.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)

Accuweather meteorologist Joe Bastardi (a Texas A&M grad) believes Ike could come ashore in Tejas early Saturday as a Category 4 (winds 131-155 mph; storm surge 13 to 18 feet above normal) and be reminiscent of the 1886 hurricane that finally wiped Indianola--once a major port--from the map, after an 1875 storm began its demise. Them's scary words, especially if you own one of the many pastel beach houses and condos on, say, Mustang Island.

He's also comparing Ike to Carla, a Category 5, which did extensive damage to the Texas coast, and inland as far as Dallas, in 1961. She spawned twenty-six tornadoes which did even more damage. Think I prefer the Indianola example, if I have to choose. More worrisome for us is what Ike's core might do, as it is expected to be sucked north by a trough of low pressure dropping south out of the Rockies, either right before landfall, in which case it might go to Galveston, or after, which could bring what's left of it up to Austin.

Fortunately, Bob Rose is only calling for Ike to be a Category 3 (bad enough with 111 to 130 mph winds and storm surge of 9 to 12 feet above normal)--still big, powerful and very destructive, with a possible 4 to 6 inches of rain for us by Sunday morning. But there's always Gustav to consider. He was going to the final slayer of New Orleans until he turned into a pussycat in the last few hours before he struck. Atmospheric conditions don't look to be the same for Ike, but we've still got three days to keep our fingers crossed that they will change. Otherwise, it's time to give thanks that we don't live on the coast and get the leaves out of the gutters!

MORE:  The state's already ordering mandatory evactuation for people all along the coast. Yipes.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Too soon to be sure but Lower Colorado River Authority meteorologist Bob Rose says we could be in for heavy rain and strong winds if, after going ashore near Corpus Christi Saturday morning, the remnants of Ike decide to head north to Austin. It's more likely now, as the new track has it coming to us as still a tropical storm. So we'll plan on battening the hatches.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well, not quite "meow." Hurricane Gustav still ain't exactly a pussycat. But he's weakened sufficiently to where he also isn't Katrina II. So, as Mr. B. would say, let's turn the volume from 4 to 2 on this one. I had a gut feeling this would happen. Nice to see the Pajamas' weather geek also can downshift in a timely fashion.

UPDATE: More weather from Jeff Masters. Weaker means less damage. But it's still strong, and liveblogging from Biloxi, MS, shows how much.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 03:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

They're desperate, I tell you. Absolutely desperate over Baby Barry and Old Joe having to face the combination of Mac and Sarah. Faux filmmaker and famous fatso Michael Moore is even celebrating Gustav. He doesn't care how many the storm kills so long as it disrupts the Repub convention. Old news actually, considering all the lies he's told in his "documentaries."

Via Instapundit.

UPDATE:  A quick lesson in how an anti-Palin site was set up by one of Baby Barry's supporters. And, inevitably, she's being dissed for being a smalltown beauty queen. But by another woman?

MORE: MSM: Mac, "the underdog," is taking a big risk with Sarah. Yeah, $7 million worth in 24 hours!

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Where, oh, where will this little sheep Gustav go? And how loud will be its baaa by the time it gets there, Sunday or Monday? Possibly a Cat 3 or 4 say the LCRA's Bob Rose (no permalink) and Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (subscription only), and anywhere from the Florida panhandle to the upper Texas coast. As you can see from this graphic by the Interior Department's Mineral Management Services (via meteorologist Jeff Masters' Wunderblog) that big a sheep is likely to cause some spikes in your gas prices for a week or so, depending... 

Word is the crews are already leaving the platforms. In New Orleans, meanwhile, where the pols apparently have made few improvements to the levee since the last devastating hurricane, they're talking about evacuating the city. Also cranking up their "It's all Bush's fault" arguments, I'm sure. But the meteorologists ain't sure ole Gustav, which has already killed twenty-two people in the Carribean, is actually going there. Fortunately, the meteors seem to agree that the two following storms, and possibly a third one (this is the height of the hurricane season) won't be getting into the Gulf. They'll be the East Coast's worry.

UPDATE: Via Instapundit: more on the possibilities. But they remain just that.

UPDATE Aug. 31: I'm not going to start a new post on Gustav until it goes ashore. It was weakened by crossing Cuba. Accuweather's Joe Bastardi thinks it will stay weakened, and possibly change course to hit the Florida panhandle, partly because of a theory he has that Fay's "wake" left cooler water and drier air behind her. The Seablogger disagrees. Jeff Masters says we'll see strengthening tonight with landfall near New Orleans Monday morning. I just think this thing's being hyped by the old media, for political as well as meteorology reasons. Wait and see.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

With forecasters already talking about a Category 4 or 5 for this thing, it's not pleasant to see the direction it's pointed. Fortunately, a lot of things can change between now and whenever, wherever it arrives.

UPDATE: By Wednesday, the 27th, while Gustav is battering Haiti, there's enough windshear in the northwest Gulf, from the subtropical jet, to weaken Gustav considerably should it come our way.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 06:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Looks like Fay will not be joining us at Port Aransas, although some big waves from her intensity as she sweeps through Florida just might. It happened with Ivan in 2006. In any case we're outta here until Thursday. Off to see the likes of Ruby Begonia, the Presidio La Bahia, and other familiar but still amazing attractions, along the trail to Port A, which is on Mustang Island in the Gulf of Mexico. Adios.

UPDATE: Returned sunburned but happy on the 21st. Drove down in the rain, and it rained off and on for a few days. But there were some afternoons when the sun came out, so the gang had a good one. Mr. B. even got to try boogie boarding, similar to surf boarding, which he pronounced strenuous but fun.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It's been cloudy all day. The drought-breaking rain we've been promised has yet to appear, thougn the temperature is a relatively-cool 89F at this hour. LCRA meteorologist Bob Rose says we're scheduled for a good chance of light-to-heavy rain through the end of next week, and he adds that there is "much uncertainty" in the ultimate path of Tropical Storm Fay. She's now predicted to turn north and strike the west coast of Florida, but just might decide to head west, instead. That would be a bummer as we are leaving the rancho on Monday for our annual jaunt to the beach at Port Aransas before Mr. B.'s school resumes on Aug. 25. Even her hitting Florida might raise some big waves that sweep across the Gulf of Mexico and pound the beach where we're going. It's happened before.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 03:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Got a brief shower at the rancho this morning, with the weather service saying there's a fifty percent chance of more to come. More than two inches fell at Harper, northwest of Fredericksburg in the hills out west. Doubt we'd get that much. The LCRA's Bob Rose says the cause is a couple of unusual cold fronts sliding south into Texas after a shift in the Jet Stream moved the dome of high pressure that's made recent weeks so hot south to where's now over northern Mexico.

Bob says this is on track to be the hottest summer on record, 87.2 degrees average temp vs. the previous hottest of 87.1 in 1998. But the city records he's talking about only go back to the 1840s, so that's nothing to get very excited about, all you global warmists. Rain chances are expected to end later today but a "cooling" trend, at least dropping temps into the nineties, could last a week to ten days. That would be nice.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Not referring to the Russian-Georgian deal, or even Baby Barry's vacation before his presumed coronation two weeks away, but the two three tropical waves from the African coast which seem likely to become hurricanes before the week is out. It's selfish to wish one of them on the Gulf of Mexico, just so we might get a little more rain, given the chance of death and destruction. So we won't go there.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (11)

Sprinkles, mainly sprinkles. We got a quarter inch overnight, most places around here got much less. So much for the hotshot tropical storm. The LCRA's Bob Rose (whose employers don't provide him with a permalink) says forecasts of much more didn't come true because the computer models failed to accurately predict the eastward shift of a high pressure ridge, which drew Edouard's rain well north of us.

Rose: "This will definitely be a research project to see why almost all of the computer and human solutions missed this forecast track."

Fat lot of good it will do us in the meantime. Although the radar showed a good deal of it went south, as well. At least we had a relatively cool evening last night. Felt cool, anyhow, as the temps dropped into the mid-seventies by dawn. But the drought continues.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall with maximum sixty-five mph winds this morning on the upper Texas coast, between High Island and Sabine Pass, but did little more than soak the beaches on Galveston Island. Right now, it's rapidly falling apart as it moves inland, headed our way. We await its outer rain bands this afternoon amid a flash flood watch and predictions of up to six inches of rain by tomorrow morning. Sky's still clear, but radar shows patches of green and yellow still formed in a loosening ball that's rolling towards us. Promises to cool us down to about ninety degrees for a high on Wednesday.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

I've set the air-conditioning thermostat at eighty degrees at the rancho and am closing curtains and blinds on the south and west sides. Reason being, the state's electric grid operator, ERCOT, is asking Texans to do so to avoid afternoon brownouts in the extreme hundred-degree heat. Demand is just really high, due mainly to population increases in recent years. No problems are expected if everyone cooperates. It's nice having your own state grid.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 02:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Finally, a good chance for some good rain and at least a day or so relief from the heat, after what seems like months of hundred degree days, though it's actually been only forty-one days in Austin since May. But there've been a lot of ninety-nines mixed in there as well. More from Weather Underground's  Jeff Masters and the Lower Colorado River Authority's Bob Rose if this is a permalink.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This thing fascinated me the first time I saw it at Creaky Pavillion, where it was art for a post on Warmism. No explanation there (which is not meant as a criticism, Tatyana), but there was a link to the Flickr account where it originated. There it was identified as the Zugspitze weather station, atop the Zugspitze, the highest spot in Germany, at a little under ten thousand feet. Looks like a defensive outpost of some kind in the Lord of the Rings, or else a flour sifter turned on its side. Can't find an explanation for why it looks the way it does, but it certainly is cool. The peak in the distance has a Christian cross atop it, viewable in the image as posted at Flickr.

UPDATE:  Tatyana, at Creaky Pavillion, added this link to a larger photo of the station, which isn't as dramatic looking, but gives a better idea of what it actually looks like. I'd still like to know what's in there.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Here's the very best view of Hurricane Dolly to watch today, and local stations to check on for news and weather. The Brownsville Herald is updating quickly.

UPDATE:  By 9:30 a.m., tornadoes were already popping up on radar west of Corpus Christi. By 1 p.m., Dolly had grown to a category 2 hurricane, its eyewall was moving ashore a bit north of Brownsville and it was pounding the coastline with hundred mph winds.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I've exhausted the easy rhymes on Tropical Storm Dolly, which is finally nudging hurricane status at seventy-four mph but seems headed for northern Mexico instead of southern Texas. But the right quandrant of a storm is the hardiest and so the Rio Grande Valley will get the worst of whatever she has when coming ashore sometime tomorrow. In Cameron County they're getting up the plywood and preparing for flooding. Looks like Central Texas will get no rain at all, not even enough wind to worry about, unless one of the tornadoes these things often spawn should wander up our way. Which is doubtful.

UPDATE:  The LCRA's Bob Rose thinks we'll get some rain, anyhow: "Rain amounts will be fairly low, generally around 0.5 inch to as high as about 1 inch.  The remnants of Dolly are forecast to track west and dissipate over the mountains of northern Mexico Friday into Saturday.  For our region, the chance for rain will decrease beginning Friday and weather conditions will return to hot and dry this weekend."

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It's beginning to look more and more like Dolly will go in near the mouth of the Rio Grande, about where the hurricane center originally had it pegged. So agrees Eric Berger at the Chron. And maybe only barely a minimal, category one, hurricane, she's been so weak so far at just fifty mph. That would be good news for most on the Texas coast, but bring us less rain than we might otherwise get to cool off our long string of hundred degree days. Heck, I even have the landscapers coming tomorrow to trim one of the back forty's live oaks where its branches are dragging on the rancho's roof, to save the shingles, if there were high winds from the storm's remnants coming inland. Looks like I jumped the gun. But we'll know more about that tomorrow.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Via Rene's Apple.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The New Braunfels office of the weather service is forecasting potentially heavy rains south of the rancho from Dolly's inland track, starting Wednesday night into Thursday, although no one is sure what the track will be, specifically how far north of the mouth of the Rio Grande. All depends on the track and how big the storm is, certainly probably a hurricane when it goes ashore, but how fast will it fall apart after that? Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (subsrcibers only) is ranting (as usual) at the hurricane center for allegedly missing Dolly's actual location this morning, which could bring it ashore well north of Laguna Madre, in which case we could likely get a lot more rain.

UPDATE:  The Seablogger, presumably still enjoying his northeastern cruise, nevertheless has taken time out to predict a possibly severe Dolly striking as far north as Galveston! Pajamas has a nice roundup of views.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

So where's the first tropical storm in the Gulf this season likely to wind up? So far Jeff Masters' prediction above calls for a landfall as a minimal hurricane somewhere along the Texas-Mexico border, i.e. around Brownsville or Matamoros. For once, reduced as we often are to wishing for a hurricane to bring us some summer rain, we've got one that could do the job for us with a minimum of pain to others. But Accuweather's Joe Bastardi thinks Dolly could be at least a Cat 2 by the time she reaches the border. More rain for us in Central Texas, maybe, but possibly also more pain for others along the Rio Grande.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Oops, another dissenter. This time the dean of hurricane forecasters, Colorado State University storm prognosticator William Gray, who says not only are we unlikely to be causing global warming, but what there is of it is unlikely to foster stronger hurricanes or destroy the earth.

Quick, Al, find someone to shut him up before he imperils your scheme. Unless you're already too busy answering other dissenters. Maybe Barbara Boxer can handle this one.

Via Fresh Bilge, which led me to this lengthy, but readable, scientific argument against Anthropogenic (human-caused) Global Warming, which led to the link above on Gray.

UPDATE:  Oops is right. Now many of the American Physical Society's almost 50,000 physicists also are out of Al's and Barbara's box. Oh, where will it end?

MORE:  Then, mirabile dictu, the physicists changed their minds, again, sort of. So the scheme is still, sort of, safe for now, Gorebot. But watch the gas guzzling, okay? It's bad for your image, oh sainted one.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Not here, no. In Sacramento, on Wednesday, where we left last Saturday after a week of what everyone there said was an unusual period of very pleasant temperatures, despite their lengthening drought and smoke from wildfires to the north.

Still, it's hot enough here, though not quite as bad as when we left to go out there--a few degrees lower on the daily highs. But Jim Spencer's forecast at KXAN is for the highs to get back to ninety-nine by the weekend with more to come. The triple-digit days are going to come back. This is the time of year when they normally start. This year they just started early, in late May. Maybe they'll be too exhausted to return. Hope, hope.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

One of these years, probably long after I am dead and gone, the MSM is going to do its homework, which should eliminate stories like this. But, really guys, all you have to do is learn to use Google. I hope Varifrank doesn't sue me for stealing his picture, but who could resist?

Via The Fat Guy

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

But, alas, it seems your Category Three-ness will be used mainly for making long-period swells for East Coast surfers. So says Alan at Fresh Bilge, and he's as good an amateur meteorologist as we're likely to find. The hurricane center also is predicting your northward motion, and Wonder Underground's Jess Masters sees you affecting Newfoundland. There's no chance of your visiting the Gulf of Mexico. So we'll just have to await our own Big Bertha to whip up and head our way. I'm optimistic we'll get one or more of your cousins by fall.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

One of the benefits of summer in the Northern Hemisphere is the appearance of noctilucent clouds, and despite all the heat we've had since mid-May, the summer solstice doesn't kick in until 6:59 p.m. CDT today. SpaceWeather dot com says: "These glow-in-the-dark clouds are a 100+ year old mystery under investigation now by NASA's AIM spacecraft. Originally confined to arctic latitudes, NLCs have spread in recent years with sightings in the United States as far south as Utah and Colorado." A gallery of photos is here. Wish they'd come to Texas. Maybe they will someday.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 02:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Moisture in the upper atmosphere over the Bay of Campeche seems to be slipping into South Central Texas, thanks to a slight westward shift in the ridge that's made Texas so brutally hot and dry this month. Sprinkles over the rancho a few minutes ago while I was sitting reading on the patio. Alas, it is not expected to linger, nor to bring us much rain, though northwestern parts of the Hill Country, such as Mason and Richland Springs, have had more than an inch, according to the Lower Colorado River Authority. At least it could lower the daily high temperatures ten to fifteen degrees. Maybe.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Started considering this concept the other day while playing catch with Mr. B. He was whining about the heat. I realized that he's never known anything except air conditioning while I grew up without it. It wasn't common until the early 1960s when I was in my twenties. Did that help acclimate me to heat? Maybe. But the notion falls apart when I think of the volunteers serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. Many of them are in their late teens and early twenties. So they were part of the air-conditioning generation, too, and they aren't getting much, or any, of it over there. Maybe Mr. B. just has to toughen up by growing up. I hope so. Father worries.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Ten days of a hundred degrees and four of ninety-nine so far this month. The front forty at the rancho is turning brown, despite our best efforts to water it after midnight--which is illegal now that Austin is on mandatory water rationing for things like lawns. Meaning you can water two days a week only. Trying to balance whether the five hundred dollar fine for watering other days would be cheaper than buying new sod and starting over. Probably not.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Don't ask me what it is, I can't find a single reference to it on any of the weather terminology sites. But the National Weather Service says we have one sitting over us today and it's drawing in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. So far it's produced only a little rain, less than half an inch in the past few days, but it has had the virtue of cooling things off a bit, by five or so degrees, anyhow. So welcome Tropical Tap. Don't be a stranger.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Meteorologists are saying our high winds, with gusts to 25 mph, bring back memories of the Dust Bowl era. I guess you'd have to be in your eighties to know for sure. But just being outside last evening, while Mr. B.'s tournament team practiced for its first game next week, I got a thin coating of dust. Got some in my eyes when I took my glasses off. Seen here, the Austin area is still in moderate fire danger, but high danger is creeping eastward towards us. The wind, the dry and the heatwave are combining to make it so.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

We've had four five 100-degree days (and a slew of ninety-nines) already this year, according to the National Weather Service, and June has hardly begun. Usually we don't see more than a fluke one of them before early July. Accuweather's Joe Bastardi is calling this weather our Fry Pan Olympics. Sure feels like it.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 04:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

After today's second scrimmage for the Northwest Austin Little League's Blue team, the team mom passed out watermelon slices. The temperature was, then, close to a hundred degrees, and the kids were clearly wilting. So the scrimmage was halted after three innings. Mr. B., who is playing right field when he isn't warming the bench (there are twelve players) got a hit but was thrown out at first. Did better yesterday, with a single, a walk and a run. Tomorrow's third scrimmage is expected to be even hotter. So who knows how long it will last. Summer's brutality is early this year, and the meteorologists are saying that only the rain from a hurricane or tropical storm can cool us off now. After a week of high nineties, even the St. Augustine grass at the rancho is turning crispy.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

They wanted to see the Arctic Sea ice before global warming made it all disappear. But when they got there, it didn't seem to be in a hurry to melt.

A hoot from Rene's Apple.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

That would be nice, but, so far, the radar shows most of it well to our north. What a strange May, as even LCRA meterologist Bob Rose admits, with evidence:

"...according to Dr. John Nielson-Gammon, the Texas State Climatologist, for the Central Texas region as a whole, this May is on track to be the 7th driest on record, the 13th driest March through May period on record, and the 7th driest December through May period on record. So if you think the weather has been a little unusual lately, you're right."

So, come on rain. We need you.

UPDATE:  Well, there's hope in River City. The temperature at the rancho has dropped twenty degrees in the last twenty minutes. An hour or so later, we had a brief shower. Pleasant, anyhow.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 06:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

KVUE meteorologists are predicting another unseasonably hot day, with a high of 97 degrees and a low in the 70s overnight, and similar temps through what has usually been a cool and wet Memorial Day weekend. That should bring smiles to the Global Warming apocolyptees, though these warm and cool periods came and went long before anyone heard of the Gorebot and his minions. And with cooling oceans, a decline in the average worldwide land temperature and the U.S. average temeprature, a thickening of the pack ice in the Arctic and more hints of global cooling, GW is looking more like a fraud every day.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tom Higdon, an old Army buddy in Newtonia, MO, finally checks in with our email group to say that his family survived the tornadoes that killed twenty-one people in Southwest Missouri and Oklahoma on the night of May 10:

"WE are okay for the most part. Lost a garage, but the house pulled through. Newtonia is a war zone for sure. No injuries, but unbelievable destruction all over....No phone service since last Saturday until today...The tornado destroyed about 15 homes in the other end of town and damaged all others. We were very lucky on this one. We lost about 15 trees and everything not tied down in the yard. Yard and field are a mess." 

As always in these kinds of natural disasters, if you want to help, you should donate to the Red Cross (Missouri address here) or the Salvation Army nearest you. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

April may the cruelest month, but May definitely is the wettest, at least in Central Texas. Think of Austin at the center of the circle and you have the radar situation last night a little after eleven. This morning the rancho had received almost an inch in twenty-four hours. But Tow, near Lake Buchanan, had had almost four inches. No rising lakes yet, and none forecast. I like the rain. It keeps the nights cool. The only bad part is that it makes the grass in the upper forty grow faster.

UPDATE:  Some others weren't so lucky, mainly south, north and east of us. We missed it all.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

"Oooh, so Mother Nature needs a favor?! Well maybe she should have thought of that when she was besetting us with droughts and floods and poison monkeys! Nature started the fight for survival, and now she wants to quit because she's losing. Well I say, hard cheese." -- Mr. Burns

More where this one came from, here. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Gorebot's fixed fee these days is a hundred thou for one his "environmental multimedia" lectures, presumably on the Global Warming Scam. The Smoking Gun has a copy of his standard contract, complete with the stipulations that there be no questions, no news media allowed in the hall, and he gets to approve all photographs before they are released. He must be gaining weight again.

Via  Doug Ross @ Journal

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It's 90 degrees this afternoon. Yipes. It's only April. But the polar jet already is retreating and the sub-tropical jet is pushing north, according to meteorologist Mark Murray of KVUE. A couple of fronts will try to get in later this week, and interact with a flow of warm. moist air off the Gulf of Mexico. But the sub-tropical jet, Mark says, will keep any cooling down and rain chances small. Rats.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 05:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Iowahawk features Global Climate Destruction, 2008. Or, IOW, Mother Earth: The Ultimate MILF(tm).

But, seriously, says Instapundit, addressing the Church of Carbon. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 06:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The docu answer to the Gorebot's scam. I wonder if this'll be showing in the schools? Probably not. Think of all the thousands of people who would thrown out of work if the scam was allowed to die. Not to mention Gore himself.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Hey, Al, the oceans don't seem to be warming. Even National Progressive Radio has noticed.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Just in time to boost the bluebonnet crop, the rancho is under a flash-flood watch today through tomorrow--with low-level moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico while a Pacific storm system tracks across the southwest tonight. The Austin-New Braunfels radar so far is showing only pockets of dappled green, but I guess that's going to chance by this afternoon--possibly, unfortunately, smack in the middle of Mr. B.'s little league team's second game of the season.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

We already knew the global-warming temperature data was skewed by simple bureaucratic ineptitude. Now we learn that the eighty-six-year-old equation greenhouse-effect believers use is flawed. Making the whole global warming scam even scammier that it looked before. Al Gore, call your banker.

Via Fresh Bilge. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 04:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Kid clerk at the hardware store got my attention a while ago when he said there was a tornado down around Goliad that the TV said was headed this way, along with a storm bringing freezing rain. Winter's last gasp, I guess. As for the tornado, I doubt it. We are under a severe thunderstorm alert, but mainly to the east and southeast of the rancho. The last time a tornado hit in Austin was eighty-six years ago--May 4, 1922, pictured above--and, while it killed thirteen and injured forty-four, it didn't do much damage as it wasn't on the ground for long. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Global warming threat or global warming bamboozle? Get both sides of the alleged anthropogenic issue, daily. I like this new site by two New Zealand professors so much that I blogrolled it. It's the very thing the poltroonish MSM should be giving us, but, having pretty much come down on the threat side, can't be trusted to do it consistently.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Nice town, Lampassas. Just a few score miles northwest of the rancho, actually. The snickup referred to, to use Mr. Boy's term, is by the federal government, of course: A government temperature sensor right smack in the middle of the urban heat island. Brilliant. Result? An artificial warming trend. One more part of the Global Warming Scam beloved by politicians, like Al Gore, who have nothing better to do. Like closing the border or winning the war. A previous example shows Lampassas is not alone.

Thanks to Rene's Apple.

UPDATE: Despite such obvious flaws in the ointment, the Californicators want to teach GW in the schools.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Says here, via KVUE, that it's medium, but it feels like a lot less, at least around the rancho. Yesterday when I ventured out to pick up Mr. B. from school I came back with a snootfull, itching eyes and plenty of sneezing. Today, nothing. Usually, all the high wind we've been having the last few days, stirs more pollen into the air. But, this time, it seems to have blown what was there away, which probably means the season is almost over. Which is fine with me.

UPDATE:  Down even more Saturday morning. No more Prisoner of Zenda routine for me. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 03:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Wet and Despair: What he calls these gray, overcast and rainy days we've been having. More here.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The rains Friday cleared a lot of the cedar pollen out of the air (despite today's moderate reading via KVUE above), and the rains forecast for this week, starting Monday, should complete the process. I'm still sneezing occasionally, possibly from pollen drawn into the rancho's heating system. Normal enough. Another week should do it. Then it's adios cedar fever for another year. Good riddance.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Not quite enough to completely clear the air of cedar/juniper pollen. But I had a snootfull yesterday, and it eased when it started raining at the rancho after dark. Quit overnight, unfortunately. But the weather service says more is possible for Thursday night.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Thank God, rain is finally in the forecast, scheduled to start Tuesday night and continue for a few days. Something has to get this cedar pollen out of the air. For two weeks now I haven't been able to go outside or get near anyone who has been without a long bout of sneezing, watering eyes and running nose. Bleh.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

I go out only when I have to, such as when picking up Mr. B. from school in the afternoon, but otherwise... KVUE's pollen counter Illona Torok explains:

"Another day, another huge jump in the Cedar pollen. Close to 5000 grains were counted today. A weak cold front will kick up the winds today, further increasing levels for Friday..."

Sure be glad when this is over. Good thing I have a Neti pot to clear my nose and sinuses. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Looks like I can go out to the lake tomorrow and check on the family sloop. KVUE, the only news outfit in town that makes its own allergy readings, found cedar pollen in decline today, rated low. Even without a rain shower to clear the air. My eyes have been itching for a week now, nose stuffed and sneezes coming and going--sure signs of cedar fever. So I was trying to stay home and inside. Be nice to get out.

UPDATE  I didn't make it because my nose is still running and my eyes still hurt from the pollen in the air. The pollen counters must have missed a few million grains in the annual juniper mating ritual. Patrician Sharp says the malaise is supposed to be over in a week, but, as usual, mine is hanging on. Nature's hazing ritual for Texans, indeed. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 05:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It's sixty-two degrees outside el rancho, the warmest night in weeks, and this is just the beginning, according to the folks at the National Weather Service. Courtesy of a northwesterly flow of good Gulf moisture which has the humidity in the seventies. Tomorrow, the temperature is supposed to be in the mid-seventies and broaching eighty degrees by Sunday afternoon. Even a cold front due through Monday night isn't expected to cool things off much. Of course, Alan-the-Seablogger doesn't expect it will last long. But a week to ten days of it will be a nice change.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

This has been the coldest fall I remember in Central Texas. I can remember Christmas eves and days in the 70s. Not this year. But, after a bitterly cold New Year's Day, according to LCRA meteorologist Bob Rose, we could be in for a nice change:

"Most recent long-range data indicates the month of January will be unseasonably mild and generally dry," Bob reports in his latest forecast, for which there is, alas, no permalink.

Sounds wonderful. If I wanted to have a cold winter, after all, I would move where the winters are cold. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)

Gracious. It's 10 a.m. and the temperature is only just now rising into the lower forties. Winter has come awfully early. I hope this means January will be warmish. Nothing like a leisurely sail in January's sun to remind why one lives in Tejas.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Joe Bol, an OCS classmate, rare reader and sometime commenter hereabouts, checked himself into the hospital this morning with his laptop and may be facing an angioplasty on Monday. Good timing, actually, as he will miss the nor'easter expected to plaster his part of Vermont on Sunday with up to twenty inches of snow. Good luck, Joe. We'll be thinking about you.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

Rats. Mr. B. and I were just at Lowe's to pick up a replacement flapper for the one that's leaking in the toilet in the guest bathroom, causing it to run and run. Now I discover we're to have a freeze tonight and a deeper one tomorrow night. Don't think I have enough covers for the outdoor faucets. Could have bought more at Lowe's. Come to think of it, they had several big boxes of them arrayed up and down the center aisle near the registers. I wondered about it. Now I know why. Will have to use a towel for one or two faucets, I guess. Curiously enough, there's also a possible brush fire warning from all the wind today. But, having little brush around the rancho, I believe we can just let that one go.

UPDATE: The freezes went okay, but I couldn't get the toilet's inflow shut off to fix the flapper. Something tells me something worse is going on. I called a plumber and await his ministrations.

MORE: He came, he tinkered, he resolved the problem with a new fill valve, wall shutoff and water hose. Said the flapper was okay all along. Problems that start out small have a way of becoming larger at the rancho. Sigh. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 05:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

No ice storms, thank goodness, just a radical shift from yesterday's high of almost 80 degrees to today's forecast high of almost thirty degrees lower. Gentle rain out there this morning. Typical winter in South Central Texas, though a bit earlier than usual this year.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

What that freak Hawaii blizzard looked like on weather radar. Accuweather's Jesse Ferrell says it's happened before.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Up to six inches of snow possible. Gore the Bore must be in the islands for a Global Warming Scam conference. Wonder if the happy Hawaiians even know how to make snowballs, let alone snowmen?

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Anything Al Gore, Hollywood, the United Nations and the European Union agree on must be a crock.

UPDATE:  At least Gore's web site is good for something, i.e. hawking pharmaceuticals. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

It's a little early for an overnight freeze, and it's only forecast to be a light one of a few hours. But it's the perfect topper to a dreary, rainy, and cold weekend. There's five days left in the official hurricane season, but it's probably already over.

UPDATE: At midnight, we're at 37 degrees, and the mercury is headed south.  

Posted by Dick Stanley at 04:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Strong cold front out of northwestern Canada is due through here tonight, after a week of cool mornings getting us ready to change seasons. Bit early for a freeze, but the LCRA's Bob Rose and other meteorologists say there'll be a light one tonight in hills west of the Rancho--while today's forecast high of 87 degrees will plunge 25 degrees to just 63 by tomorrow afternoon.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)

Storm pictures at Fresh Bilge show the intensity of Tropical Storm Noel on the beaches of South Florida, a storm that has already killed more people than Hurricane Dean, and the death toll may rise.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Amazing. It's 41 degrees at the rancho. Been a chilly week. Bit early for this sort of thing.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 06:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Hurricane Katrina supposedly was the clincher in the notion that global warming is caused by nefarious human greed. But, two years later and with nothing like it to have come again, the most famous hurricane-forecasting meteorologist, William Grey, blames the salt content of the oceans. He says Al Gore and the Nobel peace prize committee are doing a disservice to humanity for saying otherwise. Grey believes the climate will swing to global cooling soon enough. It's been said--I forget by who--that Gore et al are only pushing this phony apocalypse to give the Dems something to run on since, as much as they dislike Bush's Iraq policy, they know in their hearts that they very likely would have been forced by events to do exactly the same thing--and, for the good of the country, they'd better not interfere with it too much.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A Texas scientist I know has a sloop on Lake Travis named "Gravity Wave," which is handily explained here, but the link and this post is about another, much larger kind of gravity wave called an "undular bore." Stupid name, but an impressive event, as a train of thunderstorms recently spawned four gravity waves rolling through the atmosphere over Des Moines, Iowa.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Daytime highs are running 3.2 to 9.2 degrees above normal, the summer's unusual rain has stopped, and it all looks to continue hot and dry for at least another week. So says LCRA meteorologist Bob Rose who blames a persistent area of high pressure, which would have been more appropriate in the summer but never materialized for long back then. He also blames a strengthening La Nina, which usually means a dry fall and winter for us. More here. It's not a permalink. LCRA doesn't seem to believe in them. But it should stay good through the weekend.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Some people worry a lot about Lake Travis, especially when new municipalities start negotiating with the Lower Colorado River Authority for access. The lake is a reservoir, with customers downstream, and a certain vulnerability to the weather. So it goes up and down, and up and down. Last year it was waaaayyy down. Which is when this outfit got started and used one of my photos, which they have finally attributed, for which I am grateful. Cute cartoon, too. Check it out.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Joe Bastardi sees one coming. So does Jeff Masters. And Alan Sullivan. From Masters:

"The four reliable computer models for forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones have been very busy the past few runs cooking up some nasty storms in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the coming week. Neither the timing nor the location of these hypothetical storms has been consistent. However, the models are insistent enough that something might happen, that I believe there is about a 40% chance we'll see a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by week's end."

So hold onto your hats, down there on the Texas coast. Hurricane season ain't over until it's over.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Now that there is a genuine Northwest Passage through the Arctic, it's time to recall Stan Rogers' lyrics on the subject:

Northwest Passage
(Stan Rogers 1949-1983)

Westward from the Davis Strait 'tis there 'twas said to lie
The sea route to the Orient for which so many died;
Seeking gold and glory, leaving weathered, broken bones
And a long-forgotten lonely cairn of stones.

Chorus: Ah, for just one time I would take the Northwest Passage
To find the hand of Franklin reaching for the Beaufort Sea;
Tracing one warm line through a land so wild and savage
And make a Northwest Passage to the sea. 

Three centuries thereafter, I take passage overland
In the footsteps of brave Kelso, where his "sea of flowers" began
Watching cities rise before me, then behind me sink again
This tardiest explorer, driving hard across the plain.

And through the night, behind the wheel, the mileage clicking west
I think upon Mackenzie, David Thompson and the rest
Who cracked the mountain ramparts and did show a path for me
To race the roaring Fraser to the sea.

How then am I so different from the first men through this way?
Like them, I left a settled life, I threw it all away.
To seek a Northwest Passage at the call of many men
To find there but the road back home again.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Ice melting in the Arctic has created a long-sought fabled sea route from Europe to Asia across the top of the world. The usual suspects, of course, are blaming global warming. It could be, but I rather doubt it. The record is simply too young to know for certain if this hasn't happened before. Hopefully, the Seablogger will enlighten us on the subject, once he gets his pitiable personal work completed.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)

This is why the annual fall rains are not going to be as appreciated as usual this year. What do you know? Texas is a blue state, afterall. This year, anyway.

Via Banjo Jones 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

"BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES, HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS.  TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE, NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL.  IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW, SOMEDAY, WHY THIS HAPPENED." 

UPDATE: The Seablogger, never shy about the weather, has an idea. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

TS Humberto quickly spun up to a hurricane overnight and went ashore in Galveston County east of High Island at 2 a.m., dumping sixteen inches of rain, but sparing Houston and much of the upper Texas coast. By 8 a.m. today the National Weather Service still had it listed as a hurricane while it moved northeast across southwestern Louisiana. It could have been worse, said meteorologist Jeff Masters:

"Storms like Humberto give us the sobering reminder that as much as hurricane forecasting has improved in recent years, there is still much we do not understand--particularly in regards to intensity forecasting. If Humberto had had another 12-24 hours over water, it could have been a major hurricane that would have hit without enough time to evacuate those at risk."

Nevertheless, Port Arthur took a hit, with downed trees, flooding and power outages, and two tornadoes were reported near Galveston. JD, in Brazoria County, seems to have been spared, though he isn't posting this early yet. Hurricane center does not show it, but Accuweather's Joe Bastardi is wondering if Humberto might not curve around and get back over water...

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Austin-Travis County EMS and the Texas Army National Guard left this afternoon for the coast to help anyone hurt by TS Humberto.

"Five rescue medics will be assigned to a boat squad; four rescue medics will be assigned to staff two helicopter squads and will be teamed with military pilots and rescue personnel aboard Texas National Guard Blackhawk helicopters."

Humberto is gathering strength little by little and could go ashore near Galveston sometime tonight. JD, at the Mouth of the Brazos blog, is wondering what, if anything, Brazoria County will get, and musing about a beach house he lost to similar storms. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

That low that's been churning off the Texas coast for several days has now been declared a tropical depression, south-southwest of Galveston and moving north at six mph. Tropical storm warnings have been issued from Port O'Conner, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana. It's forecast to be a tropical storm shortly before making landfall on the Texas coast tonight.

UPDATE: Whew. That didn't long. It's Tropical Storm Humberto now and it's cooking and ready to go. An AF recon sent to measure it returned to base with mechanical problems. But another is on the way. It better be. This thing is moving as fast as Allison did six years ago. Hope it doesn't have as much rain in it. The ground all along there is ripe for flooding as it is already saturated.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Accuweather meteorologist Joe Bastardi isn't predicting another weather bomb like Tropical Storm Allison--which dropped thirty-plus inches of rain on Houston in June of 2001--he just thinks this thing dubbed 90L that's turning lazily off the northwestern Texas coast could become nasty by Tursday and might even head northeast to Louisiana: "Moral is people on the Texas and Louisiana gulf coasts should be keeping a wary eye open for this, if they have not been already."

UPDATE: KVET meteorologist Troy Kimmel alerts us to the Miami Hurricane Center's dispatch of Air Force recon into 90L, which is "becoming better organized" and could be a tropical depression later today.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Not considered terribly likely to become a tropical depression, much less a storm, but worth watching if you're on the coast. Scroll to the second image at the second link.

UPDATE: Instead, it looks like Central Texas gets clobbered tonight and tomorrow by a passing cold front out of the northwest, followed by another one on Friday.

MORE ON TUESDAY: Can't get LCRA meteorologist Bob Rose's permalink to work, but he says this thing (which might become a tropical depression tonight) will contribute to what looks like a week of rain. Familiar. It poured at the rancho this morning as Mr. Boy left for school. Finally quit at noon. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This isn't precisely new. It's just so much fun to look at. Texas rarely has no drought anywhere. Just look at how different it was less than thirteen months ago. Texas would be even more of (chauvinism alert) a garden than it already is if we got this much rain every year. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Seven-minute video takes you into a C-130 flight deck inside Hurricane Felix, at Cat 5 strength. It's the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, measuring the storm for the National Hurricane Center in Miami. With appropriate music audio to keep you from getting bored between lightning flashes, and stills at the end of the moon rising over the eye wall. Wouldn't be my idea of fun.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

All that Hill Country rain yesterday has the Llano and Pedernales rivers running almost 4,000 cubic feet per second. Since both feed into the Highland Lakes, it's just a matter of time before Lake Travis starts climbing again. In fact, the LCRA is predicting a rise of about half a foot by this evening. Fortunately that would be only about 683 feet msl, and the rain is expected to be over by tonight.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 02:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Some parts of the Hill Country have had almost three inches of rain since midnight. Much of it is under a flood watch until 7 a.m. tomorrow. The National Weather Service says the usual tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is being augmented by high-level Pacific moisture from Hurricane Henriette. The radar images certainly show it: masses of green and occasional blobs of yellow moving northeast from out of the southwest--in other words, in the direction of where Henriette is poking around on Baja California. I just hope it doesn't start Lake Travis rising again.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

...sailor take warning. Had a red sky this morning, which generally signifies a high moisture content in the atmosphere, so it's a good thing I wasn't planning to sail today, anyhow. We've had a fair amount of rain the past 24 hours, and judging from the projected track of minimal (Cat 1) Hurricane Henriette, now approaching Baja California, it looks like we're going to be getting more by Wednesday. A moisture tap from Henriette on Monday helped bring us a few downpours.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

But no longer the ferocious Lion it seemed to be just a few hours ago. The Seablogger explains why.

UPDATE: Felix returned to Lion status overnight, but remained compact, and went ashore this (Tuesday) morning in a sparsely populated area of Central America where mountains are expected to tear it apart. More from the Seablogger, who I would thank directly for his good work but leaving comments on his blog doesn't work for me anymore, so I'll do it here. Thanks, Alan. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 03:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

 Cool photo of last night's moon, rising over the eyewall, taken by NOAA Hurricane Hunters flying into the storm to measure it. There is now some discussion that, once Felix is in Campeche Bay, even as a minimal Cat 1, it might be sucked north by low pressure and hit the Texas coast. But the Houston Chronicle's Eric Berger disagrees. Still worth keeping an eye on, so to speak.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

So strong at Category 5, with sustained 165 mph winds and gusts to 200 mph, that a Hurricane Hunter plane sent to investigate it had to retreat. Now expected to hit poor Belize on Tuesday morning. Belize is still trying to forget Dean, i.e. "We're tired,  many people are broke, and given the scope of the storm there seems no sure safe haven." First, it will brush northeastern Honduras which might slow it down to a Cat 4. By Thursday it could be into Campeche Bay as a greatly diminished Cat 1. No hit on Texas expected. Let's hope it stays that way.

Centex is expected to get wet tomorrow, but not from Felix. Rather a result of tropical moisture surging in from the western Gulf and a moisture tap from Hurricane Henriette in the eastern Pacific. Both to be set off by a slow-moving closed low. A flood watch is expected.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

 Subsequent model runs show threat to Texas diminishing. Whew.

Via Seablogger 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

 The link to this Colorado State page in the previous post kept going bad, so I put up the graphic.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 06:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

As it stands now, according to meteorologist Jeff Masters, Felix could grow to a dangerous Cat 2 or 3 by Monday night when, on its present course, it approaches the border between Honduras and Nicaragua. But the forecast models are split over its direction, with some taking it farther north into the northwestern Caribbean where, on Tuesday or Wednesday, a low pressure trough could lift it up into the Gulf of Mexico, just clipping the northeast corner of the Yucatan. If that happens, the Texas coast could be in for a beating. Wait and see.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Seablogger is still talking about a chance that Felix, now a TS and probably a H by nightfall, could get into the Gulf at full strength, by just clipping the northeast corner of the Yucatan. Hurricane center still has it going to Yucatan/Belize/Honduras area like Dean did. But if Alan is right, then where? Texas may be evacuating parts of its coastline yet. Definitely a storm to watch.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 03:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It was a dump and a tourist trap to begin with. Now, despite a large drop in population since Hurricane Katrina, people still there are killing each other at a forty percent greater rate than they did before. So convenient to blame racism, the feds, Bush the Younger, etc. But local and state corruption prevented adequate flood protection in the first place, and an adequate response after nature sent the storm. The feds have spent $127 billion of our money on the Gulf Region. It's time to let the alligators have sin city.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Seablogger (who lives in a vulnerable cabin cruiser docked on Florida's east coast, and so keeps an eye on approaching storms) thinks Felix, the likely next Atlantic tropical storm (possibly to be named later today), could wind up in the Gulf of Mexico, though he isn't predicting where it might go ashore. Even if it didn't head for Texas, we're likely to see some serious rain this Labor Day Weekend and next week out of TS Henriette, which the hurricane center expects to track up the Pacific coast of Mexico today. Tropical storms and hurricanes that do that often send heavy rain across the mountains into Central Texas. I can't find any of the usual-suspect meteorologists around here predicting it yet, but Accuweather's Joe Bastardi is.

UPDATE: It's not Felix yet, but it is Tropical Depression Six and, so far, the hurricane center has it aimed south of where Dean hit the Yucatan. Unless it moves a bit north, it won't make the Gulf.

MORE: Finally it became Felix, and still, more or less, aimed at Belize. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

But the LCRA's Bob Rose says not to worry about the tropical wave crossing the Yucatan:

"This system could experience some limited tropical development as it moves over the Bay of Campeche on Thursday.The system will have little effect on our region as it moves inland over Mexico on Friday. An area of clouds and showers is located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands in the central Atlantic. This system has some potential to develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days. Another area of clouds and showers is flaring up off the coast of the southeastern US. [It] is drifting south and also shows some potential for development over the next couple of days."

Meanwhile, he does expect a weak cold front sagging into Centex to stall and increase our rain chances tomorrow through the weekend. I'm still hoping to get in a sail on Friday morning, but not at the risk of covering the sails wet.

UPDATE:  It came a little early, the rain. Storms all around us, with lightning and thunder. Gotta go.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 05:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Nice taste of autumn this morning. The thermometer on the patio hovered right at 69 degrees. Cloudy, of course, considering the 40 percent chance of heavy rain this afternoon. A similar forecast all week, but mainly after 1 p.m. so I'll have a chance to sail again tomorrow morning. My guess is the lunar eclipse wasn't visible. Sky shows usually aren't here, thanks to the clouds. I don't know for sure. I was asleep at the time.

UPDATE: Actually KVUE caught some nice lunar views on video. Requires free registration. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Comes a hearty, happy email from my American Express account touting an untimely trip to Jamaica:

"Use your Card to book three nights in an ocean-view accommodation at the AAA Five Diamond Ritz-Carlton Golf & Spa Resort in Rose Hall, Jamaica."

Rose Hall is on Montego Bay, on the north side of the island, which got not so much of Dean, as it happens. Reports from there (scroll down) are that the hotels are okay, with only a few fallen trees, but still trying to get the power back on. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 06:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Looks like Old Mexico is going to get the schnitz (with Cancun turned into Rangoon), tomorrow through Thursday. Hopefully, after crossing the Yucatan's jungled, hilly waist, however, Dean will be a shadow of its former self. At least the cenotes will get recharged.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The road to the docks was covered by rising water yesterday at Anderson Mill Marina. I had to turn around on the steep hill descending to the road, in order to retreat. I noticed half a dozen cars and trucks parked on the hill, as if their owners had come early to taken their boats out before the water came up. They would be be in for a surprise, I thought, when they came back and found the water had risen to block their retreat. But I see now that it didn't. In fact, it has fallen a little, by this morning, to 686.43 feet msl. Mr. B. and I might be able to sail, after all, in this last week before school resumes-- if Hurricane Dean stays well south of Texas. So far it looks like it will.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, as usual, has some out-of-the-box thinking on hurricanes, such as the saving grace of the high peaks of the Hispaniola mountain ranges:

"I can remember my [meteorologist] dad saying to me '[D]o you realize how much worse things would be for the southeast United States if there was no Hispaniola?'...as big as Flora [1963] was it never got its core back, nor did Inez in 1966 until it was out in the gulf and even then it never got back to what it was before Hispaniola...In 1998, Georges did battle with the island and because of that, was not the storm it could have been. And in 2005 Jeanne got tangled up there for a while."

The mountains, guarding part of the entrance to the Gulf of Mexico, have skimmed the intensity of more than one big hurricane. Unfortunately, those peaks only tugged on Hurricane Dean as it passed well to the south instead of trying to cross them.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

All eyes are still on Dean, as it gets ready to clobber Jamaica tomorrow. Inevitably, someone has put up a page of nothing but hurricane and Gulf of Mexico graphics (some of them in motion) to facilitate the Dean watchers. Stare at them long and hard. Repeat after me: "Dean will stay away from the Texas coast. He will stay away from the Texas coast."

UPDATE: Be a voyeur. Read the "Pleas for Help" bulletin board at stormCARIB, the Caribbean Hurricane Network. Be glad you're not there.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Lake Travis is getting an unfortunate boost from heavy Hill Country rains (12 inches in 24 hours along the Pedernales River which feeds the lake) generated by the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin. The LCRA is forecasting the lake to rise to 690 feet msl by Monday--and higher if we get more rain by then--which is about four feet too high for the dock extension to shore at Anderson Mill Marina. Six ninety is one foot below the height that the Army Corps of Engineers allows flood gates to be opened on Mansfield Dam to quickly lower the lake. Once again, lake levels are taking the family sloop out of our reach. At least we got the rerigging done. Too bad we can't use it. What a year!

UPDATE  This morning, they revised the peak rise to just 688 feet msl by Sunday afternoon, still two feet too high for the docks at the marina. Also three feet below where they'd open flood gates, though they are running the hydrogeneration gates which lets some water out. So the 688 will linger awhile. Then, we'll see if Hurricane Dean sends us a lot more rain to raise it still higher.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

This sucker doesn't compress well, but it shows something hopeful for Texas. Namely that the models like Hurricane Dean going into Mexico instead of the Texas coast. Crossing the Yucatan should slow it down a lot, and if it doesn't get stalled when it comes out, it could be a minimal storm after that. Link via Fresh Bilge where Alan has more.

UPDATE  LCRA's Bob Rose doesn't see Texas getting off easy at all, and notes that the Hurricane Center now sees Dean only clipping the northern Yucatan, which would hardly slow it down, and a low pressure area moving toward Texas could pull it farther north: "...Dean will be a large storm upon landfall and could threaten much of the Texas [coast?] with high winds and torrential rain even if it makes landfall along the lower coast."

MORE  I do like this note of Accuweather's Joe Bastardi: "Here is what the weather over the past has done... Through the Yucatan channel, most major storms hit the US. Through the Yucatan from east to west, they dont." 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Dean looks like another story. Hopefully, it will hit Mexico. Terrible to hope someone else gets the grief, but there it is. Down at Port A we watched the precursor storms of Erin gather strength on Monday and Tuesday, and weathered the Weather Channel's exaggerations, wishing all the while we had a laptop so we could be checking the Web for the detail the talking heads seldom got around to. Long on coiffed beauty and emotion and short on everything else. But when Erin arrived Thursday morning, we got about five inches of rain which mostly was gathered up by the sand. A little ponding on the roads. Nothing special. The waves were steeper--if still short--than usual, and the backwash was a little frightening, such that neither Mr. B. nor the teenage boogie boarders ventured too far into the surf. It was actually sunny by noon on Thursday, a few hours after Erin had swept ashore and fallen apart. Back here in Austin, the rancho got almost an inch of new rain from Erin's northward careering remnants. Dean, well, it's been Biblical in the Caribbean, so stay tuned.

UPDATE  Well, Erin was a pussycat on the coast, but not in West Texas where it caused floods that killed and is doing the same thing now in Oklahoma, of all places. Almost a week later!

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Leaving tomorrow on our annual trek to the beach at Port Aransas, so no posts until we return on Friday. Only glitch might be the storm brewing in the western Caribbean, which  Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, among other meteorologists, forsees sweeping into the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, possibly as a tropical storm. Maybe Dean unless an Atlantic one gets the name first. But he sees the chances of landfall as better for Mexico than the Texas coast. More tropical storm/hurricane argument here on what has been a quiet season so far. We will keep our fingers crossed that Bastardi's right. Not like in 2004 when Ivan, crashing into western Florida and Alabama, sent huge waves across the Gulf to hit and close the beaches at Port A. I remember one almost washed away a family from West Texas who had incautiously spread out their blanket on the sand. They were awash in an instant and struggled up a dune with what remained of their stuff to escape the water.

UPDATE  It looks like the name Dean may go to another storm, first, making the Gulf one (if there is a Gulf one) Erin. Unless Dean goes into the Gulf first. Which might not occur before we are back in Central Texas, which would be good. We shall see.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Take that, global warming ideologues. And this: five of the 10 warmest years on record all occurred before World War II.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Now that we're getting ready to head for the beach on the middle Texas coast on Monday, the Seablogger is watching something brewing down around Hispaniola that could become a storm in the Gulf of Mexico before long. It certainly is time for some hurricanes, as we near their late August peak season. Just not around Port Aransas, please.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 02:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

The National Weather Service says it's our wet ground, from the record rain we've had the first seven months of the year, that's keeping our daily highs from reaching a hundred so far. The heat index is there but not the actual temp. I had thought we'd roll right into triple-digit days this week and next, but apparently the wet ground is going to hold our highs two or three degrees below that for a while longer. Maybe into next week, as the high-pressure dome that normally creates such heat isn't over us at the moment, but out over the Red River where it is expected to slide away to the northwest starting tomorrow. We might even get a slight cold front through here on Sunday, but without any rain. We're leaving Monday, in any case, for our annual trip of a few days to the beach at Port Aransas.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 04:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

We were going to take the newish Honda CRV and drive out to the Hill Country near Fredericksburg to see if any summer peaches are left for sale. But the radar shows big green blobs of rain headed that way from west of San Antone. Guess we'll try Lake Travis, instead. Looks like the rain won't get there for hours yet. Reprieve due this week, according to some forecasters, with sun and highs in the mid-90s. I'd take highs in the mid-100s, at this point, if it meant the rain would stop for a few days.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Area creeks and streams aren't the only things running fast and high these days. So's the upper forty at the rancho, in the sense that the ground is thoroughly saturated. So when it rains hard for an hour or two like it did yesterday morning (bringing our rain total for the week to six inches) and is expected to do again today, it runs off quickly. In fact, it turns into a waterfall on the stone steps leading down to the house, gradually pooling on the patio, rising and threatening to come inside. What we need is a few days of sun for the ground to dry out. We may get it by Monday. But first we have to make it through the weekend.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Texas climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon says the state is almost drought free for the first time in a decade. How wet is it? Well, nobody's talking about the dog days of summer, anymore, now that Austin, alone, has set records for cool temperatures in all of July. More like, the season of the seal.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 03:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It isn't easy, mowing a wet St. Augustine lawn. Especially with an electric mower. I keep thinking I'm going to electrocute myself. Got through the lower forty without doing so. Now for the upper forty. Wet grass clips all over my shoes and the lower legs of my jeans. Had to take them off before coming inside. At least I don't have Bosco to worry about. Have to get it done. Only light, intermittant showers today. Much more rain forecast the rest of the week and the grass was already high. I long for a truly hot Texas summer. And dry, dry, dry.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

This is why Central Texans are praying the hurricane season confines itself to the Atlantic this year:

"'Everything is saturated. The rivers are at capacity, the lakes are up to capacity -- any tropical system that moves into Texas is going to create a lot of problems,' said Joe Arelleno, director of the Austin-San Antonio forecast office of the National Weather Service."

Meanwhile, we got another series of storms today. The high pressure dome we are used to sweating under in the summer decided to move to the northwest of us this year, and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is flowing in unimpeded. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Just one flood gate remains open on Mansfield Dam at Lake Travis and the sloop is accessible again:

"Late this afternoon, the elevation of Lake Travis was at 683.6 feet above mean sea level (msl) — nearly 18 feet lower than its recent peak elevation July 6. However, the lake — created to hold floodwaters — still remains in its flood pool; Lake Travis is at full elevation at 681 feet msl."

Went out to check the boat this morning, after finishing mowing the lawn. Cabin has no mildew and the outboard started on the first pull. Then, coming home, another thunderstorm passed over with blinding rain. Traffic slowed, fortunately, because the car ahead braked suddenly and I ran into it. My fault, of course, as it always is when you rearend someone. Fortunately no one was hurt, but I'm now looking at expensive bodywork. I do wish all this rain would go the hell away. The aquifers are full, the ground is saturated. We don't need any more.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I thought I was fed up with all the damn mosquitoes this wettest of recent Texas years has spawned. Then I began to think the physiological chirping crickets of my tinnitus were tuning up for barbershop harmonies. Until my old bud at KVUE, Shelton Green, wrote this piece on the latest "benefit" of all the rain: the real crickets are back, several months early. Just what we needed. What a weird year.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

At 1 p.m. today, the lake is to reopen to recreational boating, although given the warnings, one has to wonder why:

“'It’s not quite the same lake that it was before the flood,' [LCRA's Tim] Bradle said. 'While much of the debris is gone, some still remains, especially just below the lake’s surface, and it could be hazardous to watercraft and people.'”

One of the aerial shots I saw showed a dead cow floating along. I suppose it's been taken care of. But there's also three floodgates open on Mansfield Dam, though one is supposed to close today. Well, now I can go ahead and reschedule the sloop's rerigging, possibly as soon as next week. And start dreading the refurbishing of the teak.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Lower Colorado River Authority meteorologist Bob Rose notes this at spaceweather.com:

"Grab your binoculars. Pretty green Comet Linear VZ13 is gliding through the constellation Draco this week. It's too dim for the unaided eye, [but some say a 7X35 binocular will do just fine]. To find [VZ13] go outside after sunset and face north; the comet lies just a few star hops from Polaris."

It helps to be high enough to see the horizon. A finder map here which is dated the 10th but should be helpful through tomorrow night. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

At this hour, with four flood gates still open on Mansfield Dam, it's down to 693.01 feet msl. But Anderson Mill Marina says the family sloop won't be accessible until the lake drops another seven feet, to about 686, which won't likely be this weekend. The marinas on each side of ours, Cypress Creek and Riviera, already have access, but their slip rental is a lot higher. Anderson Mill also has terrain problems (when the lake is above 686) which they don't have. You can get a sense of how high water would flood the marina's little available land in this unflooded photo.

UPDATE  LCRA was set to close one of the flood gates at 3 p.m. Friday, when the height was down to 691.01. I suppose it was dropping too fast for them. Also there's rain forecast downriver. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Two teenage girls and a canoe. Pulled under and through the floodgates at Longhorn Dam. Whoa.

"Paramedics evaluated the victims at the scene, and then transported both to Brackenridge Hospital. Neither of the girls appeared to have life-threatening injuries, however paramedics report one victim did swallow a significant amount of water."

I'd imagine so. This is why Lake Travis is closed. You can bet it would happen there, too.

UPDATE  One of them tells KVUE: "My whole body hurts. I spent the better half of today in a neck brace, stuck with needles, and strapped to a hospital bed. We are both very thankful to be alive."

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

After weeks of soaking rains, it's a treat to see the sun and a near-empty weather radar screen. It was getting so bad there for a while I could hear the grass growing a couple of inches a day. Of course Lake Travis is still flooded, though it's declining about a foot a day and at this hour is a mere 697.04. At this rate it'll be about two weeks until I can get the family sloop a few miles uplake for a replacement of the 22-year-old standing rigging--about 12 years more than it should be for safety's sake, even on a freshwater lake. 'Course I'll probably have to start over again cleaning the mildew in the cabin, which I expect will be renewed after almost a month of being closed up. Still it's good to be dry for a change. Howdy dry, sit down and stay a spell, if you please. You will? Great!

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The family sloop. So near and yet so far. Beyond reach for the moment, with Lake Travis apparently peaked at 701.2 feet msl. That's 20 feet above normal, sort of normal. Full, anyway, although it's normally lower than 681 this time of year. The radar is mercifully clear and the lake is actually falling a tiny bit, now at 700.97, though it looks like another week, maybe two, before I can get back to work on the cabin. Probably be full of mildew by then, and I'll have to start over. It's the outboard I worry about most. Not good for it to sit out there without being run every few days.

UPDATE  Fresh Bilge reminds me, via this link, how easy we have it compared to Lake Texoma. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

After 44 days and nights of almost constant rain, it's wise to remember that Noah's Ark this ain't:

"We need to keep in mind that these rains will stop, the earth will get parched and cracked, the grasses will wither, all will return to what it was last year. Drought and flood are a cycle. If we don't bank the water we're getting now, we won't have any to withdraw in the next drought."

Indeed, LCRA meterologist Bob Rose predicts a drier, if not quite dry, week ahead.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The reflections in the water in the foreground make this a little artsy. The point of it is the way the dock extension at Anderson Mill marina leads into the water, with a canoe strategically placed presumably to help one get to shore. It's probably worse than this by now, Lake Travis having risen about 3 more feet since July 1 with two more to go according to the latest LCRA forecast. More rain forecast today. It might be Monday before we see the sun again.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Lake Travis, still taking in water from the rains in the western Hill Country, isn't satisifed with 700 feet above msl:

"LCRA now forecasts that Lake Travis will peak between 701 and 702 feet msl based on rain that has already fallen. However, more rain is expected today throughout the region. Be advised: If there is much additional rain, at a time when the lakes and river are already full, more floodgates may be opened with little or no notice."

Radar's almost clear at this hour, but that's expected to change by dawn. Wait and see.

UPDATE By late Wednesday, the forecast was 703 feet msl. Not much on radar, except some really powerful storms around Bay City, southwest of Galveston. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

That's weather-speak for thunderstorms, with rain, which is what we're expecting today through Thursday. Heavy at times. A recent one was a gusher, but without thunder, and it stopped after a few minutes. Lots more on the radar, little green blobs everywhere, with a few yellow and red ones mixed in, all flowing northwest. The weather service in New Braunfels says tonight through noon tomorrow the blobs will coalesce and the rain could be heavy. By then the jetstream will have settled in east of here, to interact with the damn low pressure trough that seems to have been here forever. At least we missed our June layer of Saharan dust. Some years it's ash from the Chiapan farmers of southern Mexico burning their fields before the planting. But the dust from the African desert is more regular, June to August. Washed out of the air so far.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

So called. This is (or was) the entry to a park and boat ramp on Lake Travis. It's one of the reasons the lake is closed to recreation for July 4. Worse is what's going on out in the watershed to the northwest. Almost 3 inches has fallen near the Colorado River at Lampassas today, which means the lake probably is going higher than the 701 feet above msl already forecast. Radar shows most of today's rain is in the watershed, and some of it is of the red and yellow variety. So the lake's flooding problem is going to get worse soon.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 04:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It's back. After a few days rest, rain (heavy at times) is back in the forecast. On the radar it's all south and southeast of Austin, so far. Houston and Galveston are really getting pounded. My fingers are crossed that the watershed of the lakes doesn't get a lot more. With Lake Travis already predicted to hit 701 feet above msl in a few days (the record is 710 in 1991) still more water would present a terrible problem for LCRA, boatowners and everyone who lives out there.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This is what almost 18 feet above normal looks like in the Cypress Creek channel at Lake Travis. The floating docks on either side rose, the flagpole didn't. And the cleat for the flag's halyard being well underwater, nobody's going to be taking it down soon. Especially when LCRA says almost 3 inches of rain Saturday in the Colorado River watershed around San Saba will push the lake to 701 feet in a few days. It could be weeks before things are back to semi-normal.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 03:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

LCRA automated site shows Lake Travis up to 697.85 feet above mean sea level, or almost seventeen feet above full. On the way to 700 by Monday is the latest prediction. Believe I'll visit tomorrow, to see what I can see and what can be shown here.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rain chances are significantly diminished through Sunday until they rise to 50 percent on Monday, according to the National Weather Service. Nice to know. I can finish mowing the lower forty tomorrow. Unfortunately, Lake Travis is likely to remain in the flood pool until late in the week.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I just finished cleaning the sloop, well, last week I did. I was considering cutting a hole in the forward hatch to install a solar/battery-powered Nicro air ventilator to cut down on the mildew and mold. Too late. The LCRA's latest data has Lake Travis at 695 point something feet, with projections for it to rise as high as 699 by the weekend. That means the docks at the marina (not to mention the parking lot and entry road) won't be accessible until late next week, if then. And, boy, is the mildew and mold going to have fun growing in the cabin in the meantime.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This 14-acre residential resort on Lake Travis has been the subject of several recent search engine visits from people tracking info on it. They seem to be trying to determine how high the lake has to be before The Island would flood. I remember that it was isolated during the '91 flood, or, perhaps, it was the one in '97. I don't remember that it has ever actually flooded.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 07:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

KVET/KASE meteorologist Troy Kimmel sees a "large organized southeastward moving cluster of thunderstorms just southeast of San Antonio is moving into the coastal plains" and theorizes:

"My initial thought would be that this system.. being between us and the gulf moisture coming ashore from the Gulf of Mexico.. will temporarily disrupt the moisture flow and perhaps result in less precipitation for the greater Austin area for at least a part of this afternoon."

So far it seems to be working. Radar shows a lot of the heavy rain well east of La Grange, heading north to Bryan.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 05:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Too funny. How not to measure temperature for the historical climate record. Yet, this is the way the feds do it. Al Gore? You need to look into this slap at global warming. Maybe re-edit your faulty biopic?

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Lake Travis dropping very slowly at this hour, down to 693.63, with four floodgates staying open. Five feet lower than forecast for this afternoon, and nothing obvious on the LCRA automated guages site to change it. KVUE's radar shows plenty of rain across the area, and more coming in, but little of the red and yellow variety. Plus it's moving faster than Wednesday morning. The meteorologists have a word for the red and yellow blob that pulled up almost stationary over Marble Falls yesterday that I hadn't encountered until the other day. In keeping with the age of terrorism, I suppose. They call it a precipitation "bomb."

UPDATE  Within an hour, the lake was rising slowly again. Lots of rain falling in upstream Lake LBJ and being passed down to Travis. By 3:30 p.m., it was up to 694.5.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

 LCRA graphic of Lake Travis on the way up, flooding some homes, isolating some marinas, and covering some private docks, with up to another 5 feet expected, and more possible. By 11:30 p.m., it was at 693.30.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

LCRA is now projecting that Lake Travis will rise to almost 697 feet above mean sea level by tomorrow afternoon, despite having four flood gates open. That would be sixteen feet above full. Have to check but that might be a record height. That's just from the rain that's fallen so far. More rain is expected out there tonight.

UPDATE LCRA has closed the lake to recreational boating. City of Austin has, likewise, closed its waterways. Debris, etc. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 02:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

I stare at the LCRA automated rain guages site entry for Marble Falls in disbelief. Seventeen point three nine inches of rain since midnight? The Llano River flowing at 52,871 cubic feet per second? The Pedernales River at 17,548? Lake Travis at 688.31, which means seven inches feet above full and the start of flooding out there on a grand scale. Two floodgates are open on Mansfield Dam with probably more to come, making shore life downstream on Lake Austin unpleasant as well. It's hard even to get into the LCRA's site, so many people must be trying. Indeed, there is widespread flooding in the Hill Country and especially along the Highland Lakes, according to the daily, with more rain to come. Austin spared, so far.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

With big storms moving in from the north, and some places out near the lakes picking up 3 inches or more, according to the LCRA's automated guages, it seems timely to repeat the weather service slogan for low-water crossers, and to pass along this great site's complete approach to Texas floods. For the rare reader who might benefit. I realize this isn't radio, but it's tempting to treat it that way sometimes. It's not hard to get excited. We live in the most flash-flood prone part of North America.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, who grew up in College Station, is wondering if floods are to come:

"The wet spring has turned into a wet summer for the Lone Star State and now that we are almost through with June and this area is still wet, there has to be concern that the level of tropical influence needed does not have to be very high to cause problems.

"I believe we are going to descend rapidly into a moderate La Nina and the last time that happened, the hurricane season of 1998 had 7 landfalls, 3 hurricanes. The European [forecast model] August/September/October precip forecast has an almost mirror image in the gulf of the ASO 1998 rainfall. If one looks at that season, one sees that there were two tropical cyclones that hit Texas, neither hurricanes, but 2 storms full of water now, moving slowly into the state[.] [W]ithout a break from the wet pattern here for more than a couple of weeks[, that] could really mean trouble."

It looks tricky enough for the next week, all of which is forecast to rain, and rain, and rain.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

All that flooding in England and Wales sounds familiar. If we get much more rain, we're going to have our own flooding problems here shortly. Another 80 percent chance today and another flash flood watch. I suppose we shall all grow flippers and webs between our toes soon enough. Feast or famine.

UPDATE  The Mad Housewife is happy with all the rain. That's good, because Bob Rose says there's lots more to come. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Got the gas aboard this morning for tomorrow's early trip to Yacht Harbor Marina, even if the forecast is for a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms. I think the forecast is overly broad, as the area most at risk is east of I-35, not Lake Travis in the hills west of Austin. So, it's worth a gamble. If there's lightning in the sky, I'll call the marina and cancel. If not, I'll motor the 2-3 miles to their dock and tie up. Then... multiple problems. Get the jib off the forestay, and the mainsail out of the mast, detach the topping lift, lazy jacks and boom vang. Then unhitch the boom. If it's not pouring by then, the rerigging might get done. If it is, and the rigger wants to put it off, I can always take a cab back to my car and go home.

UPDATE  Well, I find that LCRA is forecasting only 40 percent for Monday, and they run the lakes.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

May set records for wet. Looks like June will set a few records of its own. More from LCRA's Bob Rose:

"Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day through the weekend, with the possibility for some locally heavy rain. With the ground wet from previous rains, flash flooding will be a possibility. Everyone should keep up with the latest weather developments."

I can see my trip on Monday to Yacht Harbor Marina for a rerigging of the sloop could turn out to be an adventure. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Hasn't stopped raining for long since Friday, and this morning's downpour was forecast as only a 20 percent chance. I guess we got all 20 percent--almost half an inch, which we can add to the other half inch of the weekend. As you can see the Texas flag is very adaptable. I suppose this was made in China, like so many other American consumer goods these days. I didn't look.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 02:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The rains ended yesterday, but the runoff is still flowing and Lake Travis is now at 682.14, about a foot higher than it was Friday. So LCRA is making plans:

"At 4 p.m. today, LCRA plans to fully open one floodgate at Buchanan Dam and to increase releases from Mansfield Dam from about 5,000 cfs with two hydro units to about 7,500 cfs with three hydro units. Inks Lake will rise to about two feet above its spillway. Tomorrow morning at about 8 a.m., LCRA plans to open one floodgate at Mansfield Dam for a total release of about 12,000 to 13,000 cfs."

Posted by Dick Stanley at 03:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

LCRA says the weekend's rain is expected to end tonight, but Lake Travis is still taking in runoff from storms in the watershed, including one area that got almost six inches overnight, and the lake is expected to be about 683 feet above mean sea level by next weekend. That would be about 18 inches above where it is now, which might put the rest of the parking lot at Anderson Mill marina underwater. With the sloop's rerigging scheduled for Monday, the 25th, I'll have to hope the water isn't full of debris and boating banned by then. It should take me about thirty minutes to motor to Yacht Harbor Marina for the work, unless there's logs and other big stuff to dodge.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 05:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

LCRA site shows Lake Travis has risen about 12 inches since last night's rain, as flow rates rise in the Llano and Pedernales rivers. Indeed:

"Inflows from overnight rains are slowly filling the Highland Lakes. Flood operations are not anticipated at this time. However the chances of flood operations this weekend have become more likely as the lakes fill."

They'll start later this afternoon with hydrogeneration at Mansfield Dam, and likely stick with that if the predicted more rain in the watershed doesn't start driving the level up too fast. Opening flood gates always seems to be the last resort, given it's a reservoir, and opening too many can flood people living along Lake Austin farther downstream. Those folks are sure to be watching LCRA's balancing act.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

An outbreak of neon-blue, noctilucent clouds over Europe's and the U.S.'s northern tier. Also visible from the space station.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The sunken car in Tulsa might not look so strange around here by Monday. The weather service is calling for likely rain, possibly heavy, tonight, Saturday and Sunday. Looks like our wet spring isn't over yet. We have had some big floods in June. Are we about to repeat? Just spotty green amoebas on the radar so far. Can't last. They've been wrong before, but not this wrong. Bob Rose has more.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 08:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Climate Prediction Center says that old, misnamed reprobate and hurricane-pusher La Nina could be close at hand.

"Some forecast models, especially the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), continue to predict a rapid transition to La Niña by July 2007. However, for the past few months the CFS forecasts have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. Historically, the next few months are a favorable period for the development of La Niña."

It could make for a busy hurricane season, with some storms, inevitably, rolling our way from the Gulf. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 05:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Meteorologist Troy Kimmel emails that we can expect scattered showers this afternoon from a cold front making its way southeast across Texas. Thought I saw a surprising amount of dark clouds over Lake Travis this morning when I was out there working on the sloop. Got the cabin cleaned out, finally, and all cushions vacuumed and the surfaces wiped down with Lysol. Next I want to paint the interior teak, before starting work on the teak bin boards and doghouse trim. Next big problem to solve is getting the outboard overhauled. The one place that works on Suzukis is swamped with work. Meanwhile I've a re-rigging planned for the 18th at Yacht Harbor marina, a few miles away, but can't get there easily without a motor. Not in a hurry, anyway. I could sail back, after the rigging's completed, but still got to get there.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

More clusters of severe thunderstorms moving in from the northwest, just like last evening. Bob Rose says we might as well enjoy the thunder and lightning, as these cells may be the last we see or a while:

"This may be the beginning of our typical summer weather pattern. If today's long-range solutions are correct, today's storm activity could be the last of the spring-like storms our region will see this month."

Posted by Dick Stanley at 04:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This, compared with this from last December, shows how our south central part of Texas (and the  rest of the state) has come out of a big drought in the past six months. In the last two hours, we added another inch or so of rain as some big storms swept through from the northwest. Lowered the temperature about 20 degrees, into the upper 60s. Some urban and small stream flooding, and enough lightning to leave about 7,000 people without power. We weren't affected. Mr. B. got a little excited by a few close lightning strikes, however. Lot of hail reported. Probably see the damage from that tomorrow.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

About 7 inches of rain fell at the airport and another 7 inches at Camp Mabry last month (the official Austin raincounter sites of the National Weather Service), about 2 inches more than normal for a May, which is usually wet. Seablogger says the rains have already come to droughty Florida, although TS Barry isn't due ashore (near Tampa) before tomorrow morning. Its huge circulation is well ahead of its core. Two named storms already this year. Makes you wonder if it really will be as rough as forecast, or a bust like last year. Texans often are in the embarrassing position of having to wish for rain from tropical storms or hurricanes (knowing someone on the coast will have to get blasted first) but not this year. We're flush with wet. Probably a tipoff that we're headed for more. Feast or famine is the weather rule in Texas.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Lower Colorado River Authority graph shows how far and how fast Lake Travis has risen since last Tuesday, thanks to the weekend storms in the watershed. The lake is now forecast to hit 684 feet above mean sea level by Thursday, without any more rain. That would be a rise of 11 feet. I didn't bother to visit the marina this morning, figuring the parking lot would be under water. Certainly is now. Ah, well, I have other chores including a backyard to mow when the wet grass dries out by tomorrow.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The rancho and most of the area has been spared any severe flooding so far, but Lake Travis is rising like a rocket. According to the LCRA: the Llano River is running more than 12,000 cubic feet per second, when a few hundred is normal. The Llano flows into the upper lakes whose dams pass their excess downstream to Travis. Meanwhile the Pedernales, which flows directly into Travis, is running more than 6,000 cubic feet per second, when a few hundred is normal. Meanwhile, Lake Travis is at 681.22 feet above mean sea level, which is full--for the first time since April, 2005.

The parking lot at Anderson Mill marina was mostly underwater Sunday morning. The lake was more than 12 inches lower at that point. The extra foot could have drowned the rest of the lot. The river authority is keenly aware of all this and may have to open another gate or two on the dam to slow the rise. They don't like to squander the water, and so have been releasing only enough to generate electricity. But opening more may be necessary to prevent flooding on the lake. Which, in turn, might mean dock and other shoreline damage to folks who live downstream on Lake Austin. A complicated juggling act.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 02:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)

The waves of rain some meteorologists predicted seem to have made their appearance on KVUE's Web radar, with showers at the rancho for the first time all day. But the forecast rain totals were revised downward from as much as 10 inches to as little as 2 to 4 inches. That's good because Lake Travis is more than full for the first time in two years. The Lower Colorado River Authority has opened the floodgates at Mansfield Dam. It's been a wild three months as the lake has come back from the drought of 05-06. Any great additional rain now in the lake's watershed could start flooding homes out there on the shoreline. Looks like the Turnback Canyon race is going to get wet tonight. They're probably asleep. They have to get up later this morning to retrace the whole 19 miles they came today.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 12:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Parts of the Hill Country around Fredericksburg (now at 10 inches) and Johnson City are soaked, after waves of rain in the past 24 hours, especially where the Pedernales River is out of its banks. The death toll hasn't risen much since this morning, so people must be heeding the weather service slogan regarding low-water crossings: "Turn around, don't drown." Lake Travis has risen two feet since Monday, mainly since Thursday. But LCRA expects it to rise another 5 to 6 feet over the weekend, which would be at or just below its flood pool elevation. And that's just from what's already fallen, with more expected.

The lake might flood by Memorial Day, or LCRA open the flood gates and pass the water downstream through Austin. Travis probably will be closed to boating, due to the debris and the high bacteria count, as most of the water is coming from the Pedernales and there's a lot of cows and sheep out there. The rancho has picked up only a bit more than 1.5 inches. But the radar is clear, for now, with most of the rain parked well to the north. KVET/KASE meteorologist Troy Kimmel says we could get up to 10 inches more by Monday, primarily south of Austin, as a series of lows combine with a stationary front to our north to fetch moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific, and trigger more rain.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 06:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

No one who lived through it--including me--has forgotten the Austin flooding of May 24, 1981. Though there have been plenty of other floods since then, that remains the Memorial Day weekend biggie of memory. So, since intermittant heavy rains began yesterday, and are forecast to continue today and through the weekend, it's natural to wonder if we're about to have another one. Five people already have died from flooding northwest of Austin. It's pretty normal to have rain on Memorial Day weekend, as LCRA meteorologist Bob Rose notes. But he also says the threat of flash flooding this weekend is real. Since more than an inch has already fallen in the Austin area--and a whopping 9 inches in parts of the Hill Country, where at least one person has drowned--we're not taking this one lightly.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 10:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Awakened by thunder several times last night, I was nevertheless surprised to see on the LCRA's internet rain chart this morning that up to 2.5 inches had fallen across the area by dawn. Meteorologist Bob Rose says it could be the last significant cold front for a while:

"We need to really appreciate this spell of cooler weather because it’s likely to be one of the last we’ll see before...the onset of summer’s heat that will occur over the next couple of weeks. Texas weather, you gotta’ love it!"

Well, I love the spring and the fall. Not so much the inbetweens. And spring is almost over. 

Posted by Dick Stanley at 09:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The family sloop, a 1985 Catalina 22, looks better in this photo than it did up close, at the time, as it was covered with grey mold spots after a year without use on Lake Travis. During the drought the docks were moved to where they were inaccessible most of the time. Now it's back and almost four weeks since the photo was taken, the exterior is three-quarters clean. Elbow grease and Sof Scrub is all it takes. Still have to finish the cockpit and clean out the cabin, but it's coming along. The admiral wants to sell it and I had planned to, while it was inaccessible, but of course nobody wanted to buy it then. But after 22 years of sailing it, it's hard to part. Has to be cleaned and the outboard overhauled to sell it, anyway. If I can lure Mr. B. onto it a couple of times once school is out on May 24, I may have the winningest reason to keep it. Racing is something I've never cared to do, but he might find it exciting.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 01:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

According to the Lower Colorado River Authority, which keeps track of such things, Lake Travis now stands at 673 feet above mean sea level. That's eight feet below full, which is not normal for this time of year. What is normal for this time of year is big rains in the lake's watershed. Some homeowners out there could go from vanished lake to flooding in a span of six months.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 05:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

May is fixin' to live up to her name. Some big storms that have been edging closer all week are due to poke their noses into our atmosphere by this evening, possibly strong, possibly bringing heavy rain. Tonight through Thursday night. Figures. I finished the backyard yesterday. Nothing makes St. Augustine grow fast like a big rain.

UPDATE  Line of storms--stretching from Georgetown to San Antonio--is moving in at 10:45 p.m. An hour later, the rain had moved on and the rancho had a mere tenth of an inch. Ho hum.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 11:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

 Cloudy, drizzly day at the rancho. After a week of rain, LCRA's Bob Rose is expecting still more:

"The pattern so far this spring has been nothing short of amazing, with a parade of storm systems marching from southern California to Texas, with almost every one producing rain and thunderstorms over parts of Texas."

May is normally our wettest month. If it keeps raining, we could have big floods by June.

Posted by Dick Stanley at 03:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)