Monthly Archives: August 2006

Chris still expected

Chris doesn’t seem to have much chance to become a hurricane, after all, but the hurricane center still has it headed for South Texas by next Wednesday as, at least, a tropical storm.

UT lecturer Troy Kimmel concludes: "With this forecast track and intensity forecast, the effects locally most likely would be minimal with an increase in moisture and instability as the system moves ashore as the counterclockwise flow off in the Gulf increases."

The Chron’s SciGuy, Eric Berger, who is in Houston, still worries: "If the storm remains even very moderately organized, there certainly will be ample fuel for it in the Gulf. All the more reason, then, to hope that wind shear and Cuba rip it apart."

If we got some rain out of it, it would be fine with me. The only problem with wanting rain for Central Texas in July and August is somebody on the coast has to get hit by a tropical storm or hurricane first.

UPDATE Saturday a.m. Chris appears dead, but Accuweather.com’s Joe Bastardi hasn’t given up yet: "Still pressures are near 1010 with what is left of the system and while this means Chris is no problem at all for the Florida Straits, it is still something to watch for south Texas."

Say thanks

Simple, but effective, idea.

"To honor our soldiers across the country and increase community morale, Xerox Corporation has created Let’s Say Thanks, a national program designed to deliver thousands of cards to soldiers overseas with messages of support from home."

Today’s pretty picture

newton1_strip.jpg

The face of the sun is fluffy gold, without any sunspots. The action is at the edge of the sun where Jack Newton of British Columbia photographed this enormous prominence for spaceweather.com

R.I.P. Michael Levin

"At age 16, Michael Levin stunned his Bucks County [Pa.] family by announcing that he would settle in Israel after high school and join the military there."

Cutting through the propaganda

"Putting his political future on the line," reports the Jerusalem Post (which offers a transcript in Word format), "British Prime Minister Tony Blair came out with all his might against radical Islam during an address on Tuesday before the Los Angeles World Affairs Council.

"In his speech, Blair called for a ‘complete renaissance’ on foreign policy and unequivocaly stood by Israel: "The purpose of the provocation that began the conflict in Lebanon was clear. It was to create chaos and to provoke retaliation by Israel that would lead to Arab and Muslim opinion being inflamed, not against those who started the aggression but against those who responded to it."

Not unusual for Blair, whose courage knows no bounds, but odd considering that the British government’s BBC is putting its resources at Hez’s disposal while ignoring the rockets falling on the Israeli homefront. 

"The BBC world service…has come to sound like a virtual propaganda tool for Hezbollah."

At any rate, these are looney tunes days at the Beeb: "The BBC has been urged to pull a ‘sick’ new comedy show which features spoof news reports of Tony Blair being assassinated and a 9/11-style video of terrorists crashing an airliner into the Houses of Parliament."

Then Chris unspun

"DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON."
Now I see why the hurricane center had Chris meet Texas as a low.
UPDATE By midnight, however, Chris still is a tropical storm. 

Psy ops

Yoni Tidi, an Israeli blogger, links to an Al Jiz article detailing the hacking of Lebanese television.

"A photograph of Nasrallah himself also appeared with the legend: ‘member of Hezbollah: watch out.’ Another photograph of corpses was framed by the words: ‘there are a large number of corpses like this on the ground and Nasrallah is hiding this truth." Israel also recently hacked into FM radio stations and instead of normal programmes a two-minute recording was repeatedly broadcast.’

"’Hassan sent men to fight the Israeli army, an army of steel, without preparing them. Stop listening to patriotic hymns for a moment, reflect and bring your feet back to the ground,’ said the Arabic message.

"Israel has reportedly used a variety of technological weapons to add a psychological dimension to its war in Lebanon. Lebanese mobile phone users have also received text and voice messages saying the Israeli offensive was aimed against Hezbollah and not the Lebanese people."

Yoni also has lots of military sources and keeps up with what the IDF is doing and why, making him worth a visit. And so is In Zion, We Trust, which has a good analysis, a map, and detailed comments.