The National Weather Service has the chances of rain Sunday night through Wednesday morning starting at 70 percent and declining to 30 percent, and meteorologist Bob Rose was excited in his Friday column:
"…the weather forecast for Sunday and Monday has changed and there now appears to be a potential for significant rains across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions…"
That’s where it’s needed to raise Lake Travis, for one thing. But Bob only sees the rains from a slow-moving upper low continuing into Tuesday morning, and only 1 to 2 inches over the Hills, probably not enough to raise the lake more than a foot, if that. And if the low speeds up, the rain will be lighter.
But meteorologist Troy Kimmel was more enthusiastic in this morning’s email:
"In the atmospheric computer models, this system has continued to show signs that it’ll be a ‘slow mover’ as it crosses Texas. As a result, the NWS rainfall guidance has increased across the area…with 2 to 4 inches of rain being possible across the area…Isolated totals of 5 to 6 inches are possible…mainly north and east of the local area…" and with the dry ground taken into account, the potential for minor urban and small streams flash flooding.
After one of the driest Februaries in memory, we get excited about a rain forecast.
THE TEXAS SCRIBBLER 