Gustav-ing

Where, oh, where will this little sheep Gustav go? And how loud will be its baaa by the time it gets there, Sunday or Monday? Possibly a Cat 3 or 4 say the LCRA’s Bob Rose (no permalink) and Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi (subscription only), and anywhere from the Florida panhandle to the upper Texas coast. As you can see from this graphic by the Interior Department’s Mineral Management Services (via meteorologist Jeff Masters’ Wunderblog) that big a sheep is likely to cause some spikes in your gas prices for a week or so, depending… 

Word is the crews are already leaving the platforms. In New Orleans, meanwhile, where the pols apparently have made few improvements to the levee since the last devastating hurricane, they’re talking about evacuating the city. Also cranking up their "It’s all Bush’s fault" arguments, I’m sure. But the meteorologists ain’t sure ole Gustav, which has already killed twenty-two people in the Carribean, is actually going there. Fortunately, the meteors seem to agree that the two following storms, and possibly a third one (this is the height of the hurricane season) won’t be getting into the Gulf. They’ll be the East Coast’s worry.

UPDATE: Via Instapundit: more on the possibilities. But they remain just that.

UPDATE Aug. 31: I’m not going to start a new post on Gustav until it goes ashore. It was weakened by crossing Cuba. Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi thinks it will stay weakened, and possibly change course to hit the Florida panhandle, partly because of a theory he has that Fay’s "wake" left cooler water and drier air behind her. The Seablogger disagrees. Jeff Masters says we’ll see strengthening tonight with landfall near New Orleans Monday morning. I just think this thing’s being hyped by the old media, for political as well as meteorology reasons. Wait and see.