Accuweather meteorologist Joe Bastardi (a Texas A&M grad) believes Ike could come ashore in Tejas early Saturday as a Category 4 (winds 131-155 mph; storm surge 13 to 18 feet above normal) and be reminiscent of the 1886 hurricane that finally wiped Indianola–once a major port–from the map, after an 1875 storm began its demise. Them’s scary words, especially if you own one of the many pastel beach houses and condos on, say, Mustang Island.
He’s also comparing Ike to Carla, a Category 5, which did extensive damage to the Texas coast, and inland as far as Dallas, in 1961. She spawned twenty-six tornadoes which did even more damage. Think I prefer the Indianola example, if I have to choose. More worrisome for us is what Ike’s core might do, as it is expected to be sucked north by a trough of low pressure dropping south out of the Rockies, either right before landfall, in which case it might go to Galveston, or after, which could bring what’s left of it up to Austin.
Fortunately, Bob Rose is only calling for Ike to be a Category 3 (bad enough with 111 to 130 mph winds and storm surge of 9 to 12 feet above normal)–still big, powerful and very destructive, with a possible 4 to 6 inches of rain for us by Sunday morning. But there’s always Gustav to consider. He was going to the final slayer of New Orleans until he turned into a pussycat in the last few hours before he struck. Atmospheric conditions don’t look to be the same for Ike, but we’ve still got three days to keep our fingers crossed that they will change. Otherwise, it’s time to give thanks that we don’t live on the coast and get the leaves out of the gutters!
MORE: The state’s already ordering mandatory evactuation for people all along the coast. Yipes.
THE TEXAS SCRIBBLER 
Lively times definitely. If it is a consolation, with all this rebuilding going on, your coastal area doesn’t have old neighborhoods going seedy.
Depending on where Ike goes ashore, there may not be any neighborhoods of any quality left behind. Not a good time to own a beach place.