Category Archives: Weather/Climate

Rain chances diminishing

Posted on March 19, 2007 | Comments Off on Rain chances diminishing

LCRA’s chief meteorologist Bob Rose says another mini- drought-breaker like we had about nine days ago isn’t in the cards, just more humidity and a light rain later this week followed by a bit more this weekend thanks to a Pacific cold front combined with a low pressure trough out of New Mexico:

"Rain amounts Saturday through Sunday will be a little heavier, generally in the range of 0.5 to 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals.  As of now, however, I’m not seeing the development of a heavy rain event.   High temperatures both days will be in the middle 70s"

At least we’re going to get nice spring weather the next couple of weeks, highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s. And with the perennials greening up and the antique roses budding out, it should be even nicer.

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Posted in Antique Roses, Weather/Climate

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Wet spring?

Posted on March 18, 2007 | Comments Off on Wet spring?

Dry this weekend, but with the prospect of more heavy rain later this week into next weekend and perhaps the following week, as well, according to meteorologist Bob Rose of the Lower Colorado River Authority:

"In fac[t], I’m beginning to see many favorable parameters for severe thunderstorms during this period.  Rain amounts have the potential to be moderate to heavy since this system will be moving so slowly.  It’s too early to have a good handle on rain amounts, but somewhere around 2 to 4 inches doesn’t look out of the question."

Last weekend’s storms, concentrated in the watershed of the lakes, raised Lake Travis almost seven feet, to 652.79 above sea level by this morning. Another series of storms could do more, making this, as Bob says, a wetter spring than previously forecast. We need it.

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Big storms moving in

Posted on March 11, 2007 | Comments Off on Big storms moving in

Rainfall rates of 2 inches at hour. Flash flooding expected. More than 3 inches have already fallen in the Llano River, which should bring Lake Travis up some. Nothing much at the rancho yet, but KXAN’s radar shows it headed this way. Weather Service’s Web radar was down but now back up. Funny how that happens at times like this. Showing tornado boxes north and west. Time to shut down for a while.

UPDATE  And they came and went without any damage at the rancho which hasn’t had much more than an inch at 11 p.m. But the weather service radar shows much more to come as the low pushed in here by the jetstream dipping south seems to be parked over Central Texas. Lower Colorado River Authority automated guages show almost 4 inches on the Llano so far, so there’s hope for a significant rise in the lakes from this deluge. Indeed, flooding could become a real problem if, as the forecast models show now, the low continues to sit overhead until Tuesday. Probably will move out, though. More likely.

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Big rains a comin’, maybe

Posted on March 10, 2007 | Comments Off on Big rains a comin’, maybe

The National Weather Service has the chances of rain Sunday night through Wednesday morning  starting at 70 percent and declining to 30 percent, and meteorologist Bob Rose was excited in his Friday column:

"…the weather forecast for Sunday and Monday has changed and there now appears to be a potential for significant rains across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions…" 

That’s where it’s needed to raise Lake Travis, for one thing.  But Bob only sees the rains from a slow-moving upper low continuing into Tuesday morning, and only 1 to 2 inches over the Hills, probably not enough to raise the lake more than a foot, if that. And if the low speeds up, the rain will be lighter.

But meteorologist Troy Kimmel was more enthusiastic in this morning’s email:

"In the atmospheric computer models, this system has continued to show signs that it’ll be a ‘slow mover’ as it crosses Texas. As a result, the NWS rainfall guidance has increased across the area…with 2 to 4 inches of rain being possible across the area…Isolated totals of 5 to 6 inches are possible…mainly north and east of the local area…" and with the dry ground taken into account, the potential for minor urban and small streams flash flooding.

After one of the driest Februaries in memory, we get excited about a rain forecast.

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Private road movie

Posted on March 10, 2007 | Comments Off on Private road movie

Just about 50 hours away now from the beginning of our Spring Break, private road movie to far West Texas. In which Mr. Boy, Mom and the geezer will pile into a rental sedan and hit the rodeo for Fort Stockton and beyond. Well, Fort Davis, actually, which is well beyond FS, but no longer on I-10. Rather well off the beaten track. Or so it was the last time I visited, in the late 90s. Even West Texas changes. So who knows what it looks like now? Weather forecast looks good: mild  days and chilly nights. Mr. B. is going to get his first taste of "…the stars at night are big and bright…"

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Posted in Mr. Boy, Rancho Roly Poly, Texana, Weather/Climate

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Another global warming denier

Posted on March 5, 2007 | Comments Off on Another global warming denier

French scientist Claude Allegre’s second thoughts:

"…in an article entitled ‘The Snows of Kilimanjaro’ in l’ Express, the French weekly…[he] cited evidence that Antarctica is gaining ice and that Kilimanjaro’s retreating snow caps, among other global-warming concerns, come from natural causes. ‘The cause of this climate change is unknown,’ he states matter of factly. There is no basis for saying, as most do, that the ‘science is settled.’"

Worth a look. Via Drudge.

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Posted in Science/Engineering, Weather/Climate

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How dry? La Nina dry.

Posted on February 28, 2007 | Comments Off on How dry? La Nina dry.

La Nina, as expected, is burgeoning. For us that means dry, and we’re already dry, leaving behind the sixth driest February on record dating back to 1856:

‘”We’re seeing a shift to the La Nina, it’s clearly in the data,’ NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher said. La Nina, a cooling of the mid-Pacific equatorial region, has not officially begun because it’s a process with several months with specific temperature thresholds, but the trend is obvious based on satellite and ocean measurement data, he said. ‘It certainly won’t be welcome news for those living off the coast right now…’"

Hurricanes now become the most likely way for us to get wet. As dry as we are, we need one, but it’s a shame to think of how many people will get hurt in order for us to end this drought of ours.

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Posted in Texana, Weather/Climate

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