“…rainfall at Austin Camp Mabry [National Weather Service’s official rain gauge in the city] through May 25th has totaled 16.72 inches, 13.11 inches above normal. This breaks the previous record May of 14.10 inches set in May 1895.”
—Meteorologist Bob Rose at the Lower Colorado River Authority.
That’s the forecast of meteorologist Bob Rose with the Lower Colorado River Authority.
“This long-term spell of wet weather is very unusual—even for the [normally wet] month of May. A good part of this wet pattern can be traced to the moderate El Niño that is in place [off the coast of Chile]. The El Niño looks to continue through the summer and the upcoming fall.”
The ground in much of Austin and environs is saturated, so with more rain expected this weekend and throughout next week, flooding could be just around the corner.
“I want to remind everyone to be very cautious around area creeks, streams and low water crossings,” Rose concludes. “All of these can rise very quickly as we get additional rains. If you encounter a flooded roadway or low water crossing, please remember not to cross any barricades and Turn Around, Don’t Drown.”
UPDATE: Mr. B.’s scout Troop 511 has canceled its weekend camping at El Rancho Cima, west of San Marcos: “The [Blanco] river has risen and is unsafe, and the ground is saturated and swamp like. All other Troops have canceled their camping plans this weekend.”
Not likely, says LCRA’s Bob Rose:
“For most locations, [Monday] appears to be the hottest day so far this summer with the temperature climbing well above 100 degrees [to 105 F by the end of the day]. Of course, the big question is when is the scorching heat wave going to break? The short answer is, not anytime soon. Today’s forecast data indicates broad high pressure will remain over the region for at last the next 10 days, causing more blistering hot and mostly dry weather.”
At least we had a nice thunderstorm and brief downpour yesterday, and probably more to come.
In the forecast, anyhow. It’s August. July’s cool and rain is over. One of the coolest and wettest ever. It was pretty nice.
Time to whack us with triple-digit heat. So hundred-degree days are forecast thru Wednesday. Ninety-nines on Thursday and Friday. Yech.
Sez my old meteorologist buddy Bob Rose at the LCRA: “the center of the high pressure ridge is now located over eastern Texas. This means the most stable atmosphere and the hottest temperatures have shifted to Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.”
Why does it matter? If she arrives early, say mid- to late-summer, we could have another dry scorcher. Then, as she strengthens in the fall into the winter, a warmer and drier winter. Or not.
The LCRA’s Bob Rose is on board for her early arrival, along with NOAA and Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi. But Anthony Watts at WUWT has a neat nay-saying article we might cross our fingers on. Because, among other things, La Nina would bring a stronger hurricane season. Which, this year, could mean pushing much more of that Gulf crude oil much farther ashore into Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Maybe even turn it the other way and push some of it into Texas.
Too soon to be sure but Lower Colorado River Authority meteorologist Bob Rose says we could be in for heavy rain and strong winds if, after going ashore near Corpus Christi Saturday morning, the remnants of Ike decide to head north to Austin. It’s more likely now, as the new track has it coming to us as still a tropical storm. So we’ll plan on battening the hatches.
Sprinkles, mainly sprinkles. We got a quarter inch overnight, most places around here got much less. So much for the hotshot tropical storm. The LCRA’s Bob Rose (whose employers don’t provide him with a permalink) says forecasts of much more didn’t come true because the computer models failed to accurately predict the eastward shift of a high pressure ridge, which drew Edouard’s rain well north of us.
Rose: "This will definitely be a research project to see why almost all of the computer and human solutions missed this forecast track."
Fat lot of good it will do us in the meantime. Although the radar showed a good deal of it went south, as well. At least we had a relatively cool evening last night. Felt cool, anyhow, as the temps dropped into the mid-seventies by dawn. But the drought continues.