Category Archives: Weather/Climate

Normal Texas summer (hot).

Posted on August 5, 2006 | Comments Off on Normal Texas summer (hot).

There’s nothing quite like a brutal Texas summer. Hot summers are the norm, and when the norm disappears for a few years, I miss it. Some benefits: The heat and normally accompanying drought help cut down on the mosquitoes and other pesky bugs. The sunsets are prettier with more dust in the air. Californians and others stop moving here in such great numbers. You can’t really appreciate the mild Texas spring and fall without a brutal summer in between. With a swimming pool, the blazing sun heats the water, making it inviting all summer, rather than Barton-Springs-frigid as last summer and the summer before. And, of course, you have the inevitable return of cool summers to look forward to.

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Chris still expected

Posted on August 4, 2006 | Comments Off on Chris still expected

Chris doesn’t seem to have much chance to become a hurricane, after all, but the hurricane center still has it headed for South Texas by next Wednesday as, at least, a tropical storm.

UT lecturer Troy Kimmel concludes: "With this forecast track and intensity forecast, the effects locally most likely would be minimal with an increase in moisture and instability as the system moves ashore as the counterclockwise flow off in the Gulf increases."

The Chron’s SciGuy, Eric Berger, who is in Houston, still worries: "If the storm remains even very moderately organized, there certainly will be ample fuel for it in the Gulf. All the more reason, then, to hope that wind shear and Cuba rip it apart."

If we got some rain out of it, it would be fine with me. The only problem with wanting rain for Central Texas in July and August is somebody on the coast has to get hit by a tropical storm or hurricane first.

UPDATE Saturday a.m. Chris appears dead, but Accuweather.com’s Joe Bastardi hasn’t given up yet: "Still pressures are near 1010 with what is left of the system and while this means Chris is no problem at all for the Florida Straits, it is still something to watch for south Texas."

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Then Chris unspun

Posted on August 3, 2006 | Comments Off on Then Chris unspun 
"DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON."
Now I see why the hurricane center had Chris meet Texas as a low.
UPDATE By midnight, however, Chris still is a tropical storm. 

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Season’s first hurricane?

Posted on August 2, 2006 | Comments Off on Season’s first hurricane?

TSChris.jpg

Tropical Storm Chris, as seen by satellite in this Navy pix, is expected to become the first hurricane of the season. It already looks aimed eventually at the Dry Tortugas, off southwest Florida, according to Navy estimates shared by the National Hurricane Center. Some folks are already wondering if it will hit the Texas coast by next week. 

UPDATE  Troy Kimmel, chief meteorologist, KVET/KASE/KFMK Radio in Austin, sent me a flash graphic from the weather service’s forecast which shows a big high keeping Chris in mid-Gulf, well south of New Orleans, for instance, then trending straight into Galveston-Houston. But because it’s more than five days out, the graphic drops Chris as a hurricane and has it hitting Texas only as a big low. Which must be an artifact of their forecasting process, because there’s nothing along the way to make Chris lose his hurricane status. But our other meteorologist friend, Bob Rose, thinks Chris could go in at mid- or even lower-coast.

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Peak hurricane season nears

Posted on July 31, 2006 | Comments Off on Peak hurricane season nears

thunderclouds_strip.jpg

 Thunderstorms from space. People worry about hurricanes, but the flash flooding from a few entrained supercells thundering through your neighborhood also can leave a lasting impression. Peak hurricane season starts in two weeks. The National Hurricane Center says research trying to link devastating weather to global warming is inconclusive, according to al Reuters.

 As for the tropical wave near the Bahamas, meteorologist Bob Rose doesn’t expect it to amount to much except maybe bring Central Texas some lower daytime highs if it pushes enough moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. The coast might get half an inch. "Further inland, the showers will become very scattered in nature, with totals generally around 0.25 inches or less. High temperatures next weekend will be mostly in the middle 90s."

UPDATE "Gentlemen, start your generators." TS Chris takes on the Caribbean and the CHN gets to work: " Prepare for widespread power outages, especially in the BVI’s and isolated elsewhere if the track stays the course. More after the next advisory. Good luck, be smart, and be safe!! Dave."

 

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Big rains a’comin

Posted on July 25, 2006 | Comments Off on Big rains a’comin

ECI8.JPGNational Weather Service infrared satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico shows why big rains are expected by tomorrow, if not before, as far inland as Rancho Rolly Polly. The weather service in New Braunfels expects to be putting up a flash flood watch on Wednesday. But LCRA’s Bob Rose thinks the hill country might not get much: "…the latest forecast guidance indicates the heaviest and most concentrated area of rain will occur across the coastal plains region and the eastern half of Central Texas, generally to the east of Interstate 35. Within this area, there will be some potential for localized flooding tonight and Wednesday."

UPDATE Then the patterns shifted and by 8 a.m. meteorologist Troy Kimmel was predicting a quarter inch or less west of I-35 before a shift back to hot and dry. Oh, well. 

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Rainy days ahead

Posted on July 24, 2006 | Comments Off on Rainy days ahead

While some parts of the country swelter, the triple digit days of Central Texas have passed away, and after a few cool nights, we’ve got a tropical disturbance to watch in the western Gulf, with a chance of some heavy, drought-busting rain. After an unseasonably warm and mostly dry first half of the year we’ll take it.

Weather.com says the disturbance has already developed "a small vortex along the Mexican coast near Tampico. Should the vortex move slightly off the coast it could develop before reaching the Texas coast Tuesday. However, if the vortex moves on the coast or hugs the coast development would not be likely. Either way the overall area is moving to the north-northwest and should move into eastern Texas Tuesday with heavy rain."

Troy Kimmel, who teaches meteorology at the University of Texas, expects "the potential of a couple of inches of rain beginning tomorrow (Tuesday) and continuing into Thursday and Friday when rain chances diminish."

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