Category Archives: Weather/Climate

The importance of being Ernesto

Posted on August 25, 2006 | Comments Off on The importance of being Ernesto

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Could this be our drought breaker? Tropical Storm Ernesto, which the Nat’l Weather Service expects in mid-Gulf by Wednesday as a hurricane. After that, Austin meteorologist Bob Rose says, nobody knows: "As of now, there is no clear answer as to where the storm will go…anywhere from Brownsville, Texas to Pensacola, Florida is possible. Should the storm track northwest toward Texas, it appears landfall would be late next week, possibly even next weekend due to the slower forecasted movement."

UPDATE Looks like Ernesto won’t bring Austin anything but could play hell with Mobile, Ala, and environs. Weather.com says: "Current forecasts indicate that Ernesto will be a Gulf of Mexico hurricane by Tuesday and increasing in strength as it heads toward the northern Gulf of Mexico."

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Return of El Nino

Posted on August 25, 2006 | Comments Off on Return of El Nino

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Ioke, packing winds of 160 mph, is expected to cross the International Dateline on Sunday, becoming a typhoon, and so match Hurricane/Typhoon Ele, which also was spawned southwest of Hawaii, and crossed the dateline in August 2002–which turned out to be an El Nino onset year.

"It might be one more clue that we’re headed toward El Nino this fall," said Austin meteorologist Bob Rose. "It is interesting that the current drought resembles similar dry patterns in 1996 and 2000 which ended as La Nina faded and El Nino began.  In 2000, the rains began to return in late September and October.  In 1996, the rain began to return in October as well."

Of course the astrometeorologists (read astrologers) have been predicting the return at least since May. 

El Nino generally means rain for Texas, and gentle, soaking rains would be welcome, after this stressful drought, but post-drought flash flooding is more common in the Texas feast or famine weather cycle. 

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Debby wins her name

Posted on August 22, 2006 | Comments Off on Debby wins her name

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But Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi says she may not survive the features in her path.

"With the storm in no hurry to turn into a monster the track will be consistently further south with time. This is the wave that looked like it would be near 20 north and 50 west by Friday to me from last week, though now it is forecasted by TPC north of that. The central atlantic trof, a major player in active hurricane seasons may be there to escort little Debby out when she arrives there this weekend though that is not etched in stone."

UPDATE By Aug. 24, Debby was expected to become a hurricane but not to threaten land at all, instead turning north about mid-Atlantic and dissipating before reaching the Arctic Circle. But  Accuweather said on the 25th that her moisture "may enhance rainfall in northern Europe a week to 10 days down the road."

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Debby as a toddler?

Posted on August 21, 2006 | Comments Off on Debby as a toddler?

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She’s a long way off and no telling whether she’ll get her name, Debby, before another storm does, but it looks like the hurricane lull is just about over and plenty of time left in the season (3.2 months) to make 2006 unfortunately memorable. Alas, the hurricane center has her taking dead aim on Massachusettes. We could use a heat wave breaker. Sez Bob Rose: "With no significant change expected through the end of the month, August 2006 will likely end up being one of the warmest on record." 

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Heat perspective

Posted on August 18, 2006 | Comments Off on Heat perspective

From meteorologist Bob Rose’s eather discussion regarding the ongoing heat wave…

"While this is certainly significant, it isn’t close to the record of 21 consecutive days set between July 21 and August 2, 2001. So far this month, there have been [14] days with temperatures at or above 100 degrees. The record for the most 100-degree days in August is 27, set in 1923. We’re not near record territory yet, but several more days are likely to be added to this month’s list. No significant change in the current pattern is expected for the next few days."

So disregard the yellowing, crunchy grass and look forward to Labor Day when it should all be over for another year.

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And no relief in sight

Posted on August 15, 2006 | Comments Off on And no relief in sight

"We hit a high of 103 degrees at [Austin’s] Camp Mabry [this] afternoon! This marks the seventh day in a row of a high temperature over 100 degrees in Austin. It also marks the 20th 100 degree day this summer."

No relief? Well, the National Weather Service is predicting some but LCRA’s Bob Rose doubts it.

"I find it very interesting that the latest 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks from National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center call for below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall across a large part of Texas for the latter half of August. None of the forecast modeling I see supports this bold prediction. I’ll be curious to see if this forecast continues the next couple of days."

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Dewpoint

Posted on August 11, 2006 | Comments Off on Dewpoint

When Houston’s KPRC-TV, Channel 2 News, dropped the dewpoint readings from its on-air weather forecast (though the web site still has it), some meteorologists got rather exercised over what they saw as an attempt to dumb down the populace while making television news consultants (yes, they have those) happy.

I confess I have never understood the utility of mentioning the dewpoint. But Bob Rose says for athletes, for one, it has more value than knowing the relative humidity, for which I also confess I have only a vague appreciation.

"I hear a lot of people in the summer talk about the humidity being around 35 percent and thinking the air is dry when in fact it’s not," Bob writes. "It’s just that the temperature is so high, the air can hold more water vapor, so the humidity reading ends up being lower."

He says the dewpoint is actually an easier concept since it doesn’t change with the air temperature. 

"Basically, anytime the dewpoint gets in the 60s, or higher, the air is going to feel pretty humid.  And the closer the air temperature and dewpoint readings are, the more humid the air will be." 

Houston is a very humid town, so you’d think they’d want to figure this out. But not KPRC.

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