Tag Archives: Chris

Chris still expected

Posted on August 4, 2006 | Comments Off on Chris still expected

Chris doesn’t seem to have much chance to become a hurricane, after all, but the hurricane center still has it headed for South Texas by next Wednesday as, at least, a tropical storm.

UT lecturer Troy Kimmel concludes: "With this forecast track and intensity forecast, the effects locally most likely would be minimal with an increase in moisture and instability as the system moves ashore as the counterclockwise flow off in the Gulf increases."

The Chron’s SciGuy, Eric Berger, who is in Houston, still worries: "If the storm remains even very moderately organized, there certainly will be ample fuel for it in the Gulf. All the more reason, then, to hope that wind shear and Cuba rip it apart."

If we got some rain out of it, it would be fine with me. The only problem with wanting rain for Central Texas in July and August is somebody on the coast has to get hit by a tropical storm or hurricane first.

UPDATE Saturday a.m. Chris appears dead, but Accuweather.com’s Joe Bastardi hasn’t given up yet: "Still pressures are near 1010 with what is left of the system and while this means Chris is no problem at all for the Florida Straits, it is still something to watch for south Texas."

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Then Chris unspun

Posted on August 3, 2006 | Comments Off on Then Chris unspun 
"DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON."
Now I see why the hurricane center had Chris meet Texas as a low.
UPDATE By midnight, however, Chris still is a tropical storm. 

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Season’s first hurricane?

Posted on August 2, 2006 | Comments Off on Season’s first hurricane?

TSChris.jpg

Tropical Storm Chris, as seen by satellite in this Navy pix, is expected to become the first hurricane of the season. It already looks aimed eventually at the Dry Tortugas, off southwest Florida, according to Navy estimates shared by the National Hurricane Center. Some folks are already wondering if it will hit the Texas coast by next week. 

UPDATE  Troy Kimmel, chief meteorologist, KVET/KASE/KFMK Radio in Austin, sent me a flash graphic from the weather service’s forecast which shows a big high keeping Chris in mid-Gulf, well south of New Orleans, for instance, then trending straight into Galveston-Houston. But because it’s more than five days out, the graphic drops Chris as a hurricane and has it hitting Texas only as a big low. Which must be an artifact of their forecasting process, because there’s nothing along the way to make Chris lose his hurricane status. But our other meteorologist friend, Bob Rose, thinks Chris could go in at mid- or even lower-coast.

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