Tag Archives: Bob Rose

Wet spring?

Posted on March 18, 2007 | Comments Off on Wet spring?

Dry this weekend, but with the prospect of more heavy rain later this week into next weekend and perhaps the following week, as well, according to meteorologist Bob Rose of the Lower Colorado River Authority:

"In fac[t], I’m beginning to see many favorable parameters for severe thunderstorms during this period.  Rain amounts have the potential to be moderate to heavy since this system will be moving so slowly.  It’s too early to have a good handle on rain amounts, but somewhere around 2 to 4 inches doesn’t look out of the question."

Last weekend’s storms, concentrated in the watershed of the lakes, raised Lake Travis almost seven feet, to 652.79 above sea level by this morning. Another series of storms could do more, making this, as Bob says, a wetter spring than previously forecast. We need it.

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Big rains a comin’, maybe

Posted on March 10, 2007 | Comments Off on Big rains a comin’, maybe

The National Weather Service has the chances of rain Sunday night through Wednesday morning  starting at 70 percent and declining to 30 percent, and meteorologist Bob Rose was excited in his Friday column:

"…the weather forecast for Sunday and Monday has changed and there now appears to be a potential for significant rains across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions…" 

That’s where it’s needed to raise Lake Travis, for one thing.  But Bob only sees the rains from a slow-moving upper low continuing into Tuesday morning, and only 1 to 2 inches over the Hills, probably not enough to raise the lake more than a foot, if that. And if the low speeds up, the rain will be lighter.

But meteorologist Troy Kimmel was more enthusiastic in this morning’s email:

"In the atmospheric computer models, this system has continued to show signs that it’ll be a ‘slow mover’ as it crosses Texas. As a result, the NWS rainfall guidance has increased across the area…with 2 to 4 inches of rain being possible across the area…Isolated totals of 5 to 6 inches are possible…mainly north and east of the local area…" and with the dry ground taken into account, the potential for minor urban and small streams flash flooding.

After one of the driest Februaries in memory, we get excited about a rain forecast.

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No arctic air?

Posted on January 28, 2007 | Comments Off on No arctic air?

So we can hope. We’d certainly like to avoid the single-digit days of the Northeast, if we can. Indeed, the deep-freeze-by-next-weekend prognostications of meteorologists Bob Rose (who left town for a long-scheduled cruise) and Troy Kimmel seem to be defunct. The National Weather Service isn’t buying it, nor is Accuweather, and Austin’s KXAN weather folks have the daytime highs rising into the 60s by Saturday, about thirty degrees warmer than Rose and Kimmel were predicting last Friday. Fine with us here at the rancho, where the sun is out today but the air is in the chilly 40s. We’re already tried of winter, which usually only lasts a few weeks here in Central Texas, which we’ve grown to believe is our natural right.

UPDATE  The weather service has altered its forecast somewhat, saying the arctic air will come next Sunday but is expected to be "modified" before it reaches South Central Texas–their term for Central Texas–and so not as cold as previously advertised. But they’re hedging their bets on how cold. 

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Posted in Texana, Weather/Climate

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Maybe no ice

Posted on January 25, 2007 | Comments Off on Maybe no ice

The anticipated Arctic air express for the eastern two-thirds of the country next week is still on schedule, says meteorologist Bob Rose.

"Long-range solutions continue to show the development of a pattern that will bring very cold air into Texas beginning late next week, continuing into next weekend and possibly longer…"

But, at least, they’re no signs (yet) of any concurrent rain to turn it icey: "Fortunately, the long-range solutions continue to indicate the weather will be at least initially be dry…"

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Brrrr

Posted on January 16, 2007 | Comments Off on Brrrr

Bob Rose, meteorologist for the Lower Colorado River Authority, is making Mr. Boy happy. Bob  is forecasting another day off from school with more rain, sleet and snow for the rancho and environs:

"The wintry precipitation is showing no signs of letting up in the near term, with more freezing rain, sleet and snow expected into Wednesday.  Precipitation does look like it will taper off Thursday morning.  For the most part, temperatures will remain at or below freezing into Thursday morning,"

Then, another cold front on Friday and more rain into the weekend. Unfortunately, there’s not been enough rain yet to raise Lake Travis much, just under two feet in the past 48 hours. There is, however, one live oak whose ice-laden branches are embracing the roof, and another more menacing one embracing the power line connection in the backyard. So it’s iffy how much longer we’ll be on the air. The good thing is this is our winter, a week or two at the most. Eat your heart out.

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Posted in Mr. Boy, Rancho Roly Poly, Texana, Weather/Climate

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Dry November

Posted on November 23, 2006 | Comments Off on Dry November

Meteorologist Bob Rose of the Lower Colorado River Authority offers some thoughts on the dry spell.

"Weather conditions have been unusually dry this month, with most areas so far reporting little to no rain. The outlook for rain the next few days looks bleak and it’s possible we may end the month with no additional rain. So far this month, Austin Mabry has reported 0.04 inches [the 10th driest on record], [and] Austin-Bergstrom 0.05 inches…the 3rd driest on record…" 

"Most climate experts are puzzled as to why the pattern across Texas and the southern US has recently turned so dry and why the expected wet signal from El Nino has failed to develop. [They] do expect a change in the overall pattern beginning in December, with most calling for a trend toward increased precipitation. The current situation does point out that most El Nino’s are different from each other, with each one producing different results across Texas."

Bob says other El Nino winters have started dry and ended with plenty of rain–notably 1987-88, 1991-92, and 1997-98. So flash floods could be just around the corner.

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Waiting for El Nino

Posted on September 21, 2006 | Comments Off on Waiting for El Nino

Bob Rose and Troy Kimmel, my favorite Austin meteorologists, say we’re going to bust this drought any time now, as the strengthening El Nino in the eastern Pacific is going to bring us a rainy period this fall/winter here in Central Texas. That’ll be nice because, although the temps are dipping into the 50s overnight and the days are seldom above the low 90s, it’s still pretty dry.

"The latest measurements indicate that a couple regions of the Pacific have already reached moderate threshold while others are still categorized as weak," Rose writes. "The Nino 3.4 region, the one which typically has the greatest influence on Texas weather, is still showing weak. Overall, sea surface temperatures continue to warm…and the episode is forecast to become moderate in intensity by November or December.

"Historically, weak El Ninos typically have a somewhat dry signal for Texas. On the other hand, moderate to strong episodes show a strong correlation with above normal rainfall across Texas and the southern US.  There is also a stronger signal for below normal winter temperatures with the moderate and strong events."

The outlook predicted by the National Weather Service? "…for November through February…above normal rainfall across almost all of Texas."

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