Raining hard at the Rancho [Thursday night] and the radar at 2:30 a.m. suggests much more to come, if the Balcones Escarpment doesn’t break up the big yellow patch moving east as it sometimes does.
I’ve got the watch, as Mr. B. has school and Mrs. C. has work in the morning. The sandbags and towels are in place and I have a cup of sugar-free apple cider to keep me alert.
The situation already went pear-shaped out on Lake Travis not long ago, where the water has risen 25 feet in the past week as of tonight. This El Nino is a bitch.
UPDATE: The escarpment broke up most of the storms and by mid-morning Friday the sun was out for the first time in a while. More rain expected on Saturday, however, as El Nino continues strong.
MORE: By Sunday, the 31st, hardly any more rain had fallen and we were forecast to get a clear week ahead of us for the first time in 27 days.
It’s the surge that will get the tourist beaches and fishing villages in Baja California, since the near-Category Five hurricane will lose some of its now-155 mph winds by the time it comes ashore tomorrow.
But, as the meteorologists say, a hurricane is not a point, and Baja is already getting plenty of wind, rain and waves. Meanwhile, we wait to see if we’ll get any of Jimena’s endgame, i.e. good rain. Benefiting from someone else’s tragedy, as usual with these things. Accuweather is still calling for thunderstorms for us, but has pushed them out to Saturday night now. Jim Spencer at KXAN sees a better chance Friday night than Saturday.
Not here, no. In Sacramento, on Wednesday, where we left last Saturday after a week of what everyone there said was an unusual period of very pleasant temperatures, despite their lengthening drought and smoke from wildfires to the north.
Still, it’s hot enough here, though not quite as bad as when we left to go out there–a few degrees lower on the daily highs. But Jim Spencer’s forecast at KXAN is for the highs to get back to ninety-nine by the weekend with more to come. The triple-digit days are going to come back. This is the time of year when they normally start. This year they just started early, in late May. Maybe they’ll be too exhausted to return. Hope, hope.
So we can hope. We’d certainly like to avoid the single-digit days of the Northeast, if we can. Indeed, the deep-freeze-by-next-weekend prognostications of meteorologists Bob Rose (who left town for a long-scheduled cruise) and Troy Kimmel seem to be defunct. The National Weather Service isn’t buying it, nor is Accuweather, and Austin’s KXAN weather folks have the daytime highs rising into the 60s by Saturday, about thirty degrees warmer than Rose and Kimmel were predicting last Friday. Fine with us here at the rancho, where the sun is out today but the air is in the chilly 40s. We’re already tried of winter, which usually only lasts a few weeks here in Central Texas, which we’ve grown to believe is our natural right.
UPDATE The weather service has altered its forecast somewhat, saying the arctic air will come next Sunday but is expected to be "modified" before it reaches South Central Texas–their term for Central Texas–and so not as cold as previously advertised. But they’re hedging their bets on how cold.
"We hit a high of 103 degrees at [Austin’s] Camp Mabry [this] afternoon! This marks the seventh day in a row of a high temperature over 100 degrees in Austin. It also marks the 20th 100 degree day this summer."
No relief? Well, the National Weather Service is predicting some but LCRA’s Bob Rose doubts it.
"I find it very interesting that the latest 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks from National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center call for below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall across a large part of Texas for the latter half of August. None of the forecast modeling I see supports this bold prediction. I’ll be curious to see if this forecast continues the next couple of days."