Tag Archives: Olmert

Referendum

Despite all the fancy, tax-raising promises of this or that by the Dems, the presidential race will be a referendum on the war, particularly the Iraq campaign for which the Lefty Obama-rama already has plans:

“’Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq,’ says a statement on the senator’s Web site. ‘He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months. Obama will make it clear that we will not build any permanent bases in Iraq. He will keep some troops in Iraq to protect our embassy and diplomats; if al Qaeda attempts to build a base within Iraq, he will keep troops in Iraq or elsewhere in the region to carry out targeted strikes on al Qaeda.‘”

As Michael Totten says, the hedge at the end only means he’ll eschew counterinsurgency for a return to smart bombs and civilian casualties. This is why I think the Dems are headed for defeat. The lefties want to cut and run, they always have. But I’m betting no one else does. 

Image

The nightmare continues

D07A14_2.JPG

We’re not Spaniards yet

President Bush, in this report from the usually unfriendly BBC, indicates he will be keeping his word on Iraq rather than calling in Iran and Syria to save his bacon.

"Mr Bush, answering questions after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, made it clear there would be no complete about-turn in US foreign policy…Iran must be isolated internationally if it continued with its uranium enrichment programme, Mr Bush said. He also showed little enthusiasm to engage with Syria, stressing that the US had already made it clear to Damascus that it should stop interfering in Lebanon and stop harbouring extremists."

Meanwhile, Austin Bay says the Baker-Hamilton Group is more about political cover for the Dems than any dramatic changes in policy.

"Then the military will continue to do what it’s been doing in Iraq and Afghanistan and the new Iraqi government will continue to learn by doing — and in the ordeal of war that will mean learn by bleeding, suffering, and sweating."

Has the IDF lost its nerve?

From the Jerusalem Post:

"IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz is known to be opposed to a ground incursion into Lebanon, which he has said would only be carried out as a last resort. Harel also said that while the possibility existed, the chances the IDF would launch such an incursion were slim."

I’m just an old combat infantryman, but Haluzt seems to be worried more about his casualties than eliminating the Hez rocket launchers. Which he’s trying to do from the air and sea, and with massed artillery  and small-unit special operations, rather than in large movements of infantry and armor.

It fits in rather unpleasantly with something else in the JP edition, commentator Daniel Pipes’ opinion that the IDF has lost the touch that once made it great, and his conclusion that all of this will mean little in the long run.

"Deterrence cannot be reinstated in a week," he writes, "through a raid, a blockade, or a round of war. It demands unwavering resolve, expressed over decades."

But there aren’t any decades left before Iran gets the bomb and gives Hez a really nasty warhead for its rockets, and Nazareth, for instance, is not merely rocketed but turned into glass. Casualties now or nuclear war later?

Israel blogger Meryl Yourish ( who lives in Virginia and may have finally found a job she wants and best wishes to her) notes that Hez has extensively mined the southern Lebanon borderland which would make it deadly to invade even in a Merkava tank. Yet she thinks IDF morale is high, and saves a taunt for Hez bossman Hassan Nasrallah, otherwise known as "Chipmunk Cheeks."

There’s a last chance feel to this latest Israeli war on its terrorist tormentors and, hesitant chiefs of staff or no, I hope Olmert’s otherwise dovish government takes it while the taking’s good.

UPDATE  There’s at least one company-grade IDF officer saying battalion or division size invasion isn’t out of the question. "’There is a possibility _ all our options are open. At the moment, it’s a very limited, specific incursion but all options remain open’ Capt. Jacob Dallal, an Israeli army spokesman, told The Associated Press on Wednesday."

Why a ceasefire won’t work for long

Iraq the Model’s Mohammed Fadhill explains.

"The key point in this strategy is to keep the half-solution alive. This method proved successful in keeping the despotic regimes in power for decades and these regimes think this strategy is still valid. What makes them this way is their interpretation of international comments which came almost exactly as they always do; calls for restraint and urging a cease-fire which they (Iran and her allies) think will mean eventually going back to negotiations which they know very well how to keep moving in an empty circle."

What it really boils down to is the insanity of half measures when dealing with terrorists. You either go for victory or you accept their war of attrition, a slow death of a thousand cuts. But even if the Olmert government knows that – and it surely does – will they have the courage to push on through the usual condemnation?

Everyone in the blogosphere, it seems, apologizes before noting something DEBKAfile has up. The conventional wisdom is that DEBKA is not always accurate, but the Israeli open-intelligence site certainly is interesting and has many readers, and now has a good active map that shows what’s within the range of some of those thousands of missiles that have been raining on northern Israel since last week, almost one-a-minute at times.