Tag Archives: Troy Kimmel

It’s a boat, 2

Posted on June 8, 2007 | Comments Off on It’s a boat, 2

Meteorologist Troy Kimmel emails that we can expect scattered showers this afternoon from a cold front making its way southeast across Texas. Thought I saw a surprising amount of dark clouds over Lake Travis this morning when I was out there working on the sloop. Got the cabin cleaned out, finally, and all cushions vacuumed and the surfaces wiped down with Lysol. Next I want to paint the interior teak, before starting work on the teak bin boards and doghouse trim. Next big problem to solve is getting the outboard overhauled. The one place that works on Suzukis is swamped with work. Meanwhile I’ve a re-rigging planned for the 18th at Yacht Harbor marina, a few miles away, but can’t get there easily without a motor. Not in a hurry, anyway. I could sail back, after the rigging’s completed, but still got to get there.

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Posted in Rancho Roly Poly, Sailing, Weather/Climate

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Water world

Posted on May 25, 2007 | Comments Off on Water world

Parts of the Hill Country around Fredericksburg (now at 10 inches) and Johnson City are soaked, after waves of rain in the past 24 hours, especially where the Pedernales River is out of its banks. The death toll hasn’t risen much since this morning, so people must be heeding the weather service slogan regarding low-water crossings: "Turn around, don’t drown." Lake Travis has risen two feet since Monday, mainly since Thursday. But LCRA expects it to rise another 5 to 6 feet over the weekend, which would be at or just below its flood pool elevation. And that’s just from what’s already fallen, with more expected.

The lake might flood by Memorial Day, or LCRA open the flood gates and pass the water downstream through Austin. Travis probably will be closed to boating, due to the debris and the high bacteria count, as most of the water is coming from the Pedernales and there’s a lot of cows and sheep out there. The rancho has picked up only a bit more than 1.5 inches. But the radar is clear, for now, with most of the rain parked well to the north. KVET/KASE meteorologist Troy Kimmel says we could get up to 10 inches more by Monday, primarily south of Austin, as a series of lows combine with a stationary front to our north to fetch moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific, and trigger more rain.

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Big rains a comin’, maybe

Posted on March 10, 2007 | Comments Off on Big rains a comin’, maybe

The National Weather Service has the chances of rain Sunday night through Wednesday morning  starting at 70 percent and declining to 30 percent, and meteorologist Bob Rose was excited in his Friday column:

"…the weather forecast for Sunday and Monday has changed and there now appears to be a potential for significant rains across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions…" 

That’s where it’s needed to raise Lake Travis, for one thing.  But Bob only sees the rains from a slow-moving upper low continuing into Tuesday morning, and only 1 to 2 inches over the Hills, probably not enough to raise the lake more than a foot, if that. And if the low speeds up, the rain will be lighter.

But meteorologist Troy Kimmel was more enthusiastic in this morning’s email:

"In the atmospheric computer models, this system has continued to show signs that it’ll be a ‘slow mover’ as it crosses Texas. As a result, the NWS rainfall guidance has increased across the area…with 2 to 4 inches of rain being possible across the area…Isolated totals of 5 to 6 inches are possible…mainly north and east of the local area…" and with the dry ground taken into account, the potential for minor urban and small streams flash flooding.

After one of the driest Februaries in memory, we get excited about a rain forecast.

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Not near as cold

Posted on January 31, 2007 | Comments Off on Not near as cold

Looks like the meteorologists whose interpretations last week of the computer forecast models showed a rash of bitter arctic air for Central Texas this weekend into next week are waffling:

"I think there will be a secondary reinforcing cold front through the area late in the day Sunday," emails Troy Kimmel. "This front will be colder than the one Friday night/Saturday morning. This will result in highs on Sunday around 50.. lows Sunday night falling into the upper 20s…"

He’ll have an update this afternoon, but so far he’s not foreseeing lows in the teens anymore.

UPDATE  Troy’s no longer concerned about possible unusual low temps, and that’s good.  

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Arctic air or not?

Posted on January 29, 2007 | Comments Off on Arctic air or not?

Central Texas meteorologists, from the broadcasters to the National Weather Service, are having conniptions trying to figure out what’s going to happen this weekend into next week. Some say the coldest weather in many years, others aren’t sure:

"I’d like nothing more than to tell you that the [computer forecast] models have settled on a reasonable solution regarding the timing and/or intensity of this expected arctic air," writes meteorologist Troy Kimmel. "This, however, is not the case as the models continue to be quite divergent in their solutions which really doesn’t make us feel any more confident regarding exactly how this potential event will unfold."

So we’ll just have to wait a few more days for the computer models and their artful interpreters to decide what’s going to be what and where.

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No arctic air?

Posted on January 28, 2007 | Comments Off on No arctic air?

So we can hope. We’d certainly like to avoid the single-digit days of the Northeast, if we can. Indeed, the deep-freeze-by-next-weekend prognostications of meteorologists Bob Rose (who left town for a long-scheduled cruise) and Troy Kimmel seem to be defunct. The National Weather Service isn’t buying it, nor is Accuweather, and Austin’s KXAN weather folks have the daytime highs rising into the 60s by Saturday, about thirty degrees warmer than Rose and Kimmel were predicting last Friday. Fine with us here at the rancho, where the sun is out today but the air is in the chilly 40s. We’re already tried of winter, which usually only lasts a few weeks here in Central Texas, which we’ve grown to believe is our natural right.

UPDATE  The weather service has altered its forecast somewhat, saying the arctic air will come next Sunday but is expected to be "modified" before it reaches South Central Texas–their term for Central Texas–and so not as cold as previously advertised. But they’re hedging their bets on how cold. 

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Posted in Texana, Weather/Climate

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Another ice storm?

Posted on January 24, 2007 | Comments Off on Another ice storm?

KVET-KASE meteorologist Troy Kimmel has some bad news for those of us who were hoping that the normal, 2-week winter in Central Texas was almost over:

"I am becoming increasingly concerned with projected cross-polar flow developing which is forecast by some of the atmospheric computer models to bring some of the coldest Arctic air seen in recent years over the eastern two thirds of the U. S. (east of the Rockies).. including our area..  by about the end of the month and continuing into February."

It could, he says, run into continuing Pacific storm systems and slather us again with ice. Yuk.

UPDATE  Yipes, even LCRA meteorologist Bob Rose is commenting on this possibility. Lord preserve us from more ice. 

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Posted in Texana, Weather/Climate

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