Category Archives: Weather/Climate

Draining Lake Travis

Some people worry a lot about Lake Travis, especially when new municipalities start negotiating with the Lower Colorado River Authority for access. The lake is a reservoir, with customers downstream, and a certain vulnerability to the weather. So it goes up and down, and up and down. Last year it was waaaayyy down. Which is when this outfit got started and used one of my photos, which they have finally attributed, for which I am grateful. Cute cartoon, too. Check it out.

UPDATE:  And, then, I don’t when, they went toes up and the photo also disappeared.

New Gulf storm?

Joe Bastardi sees one coming. So does Jeff Masters. And Alan Sullivan. From Masters:

"The four reliable computer models for forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones have been very busy the past few runs cooking up some nasty storms in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the coming week. Neither the timing nor the location of these hypothetical storms has been consistent. However, the models are insistent enough that something might happen, that I believe there is about a 40% chance we’ll see a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by week’s end."

So hold onto your hats, down there on the Texas coast. Hurricane season ain’t over until it’s over.

Stan Rogers

Now that there is a genuine Northwest Passage through the Arctic, it’s time to recall Stan Rogers’ lyrics on the subject:

Northwest Passage
(Stan Rogers 1949-1983)

Westward from the Davis Strait ’tis there ’twas said to lie
The sea route to the Orient for which so many died;
Seeking gold and glory, leaving weathered, broken bones
And a long-forgotten lonely cairn of stones.

Chorus: Ah, for just one time I would take the Northwest Passage
To find the hand of Franklin reaching for the Beaufort Sea;
Tracing one warm line through a land so wild and savage
And make a Northwest Passage to the sea. 

Three centuries thereafter, I take passage overland
In the footsteps of brave Kelso, where his "sea of flowers" began
Watching cities rise before me, then behind me sink again
This tardiest explorer, driving hard across the plain.

And through the night, behind the wheel, the mileage clicking west
I think upon Mackenzie, David Thompson and the rest
Who cracked the mountain ramparts and did show a path for me
To race the roaring Fraser to the sea.

How then am I so different from the first men through this way?
Like them, I left a settled life, I threw it all away.
To seek a Northwest Passage at the call of many men
To find there but the road back home again.

A northwest passage to the sea

Ice melting in the Arctic has created a long-sought fabled sea route from Europe to Asia across the top of the world. The usual suspects, of course, are blaming global warming. It could be, but I rather doubt it. The record is simply too young to know for certain if this hasn’t happened before. Hopefully, the Seablogger will enlighten us on the subject, once he gets his pitiable personal work completed.

Water, water everywhere, in Texas

pdsi.JPG

This is why the annual fall rains are not going to be as appreciated as usual this year. What do you know? Texas is a blue state, afterall. This year, anyway.

Via Banjo Jones 

Historical Humberto

"BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES, HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE, NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW, SOMEDAY, WHY THIS HAPPENED."
UPDATE: The Seablogger, never shy about the weather, has an idea. 

Hurry-up hurricane

TS Humberto quickly spun up to a hurricane overnight and went ashore in Galveston County east of High Island at 2 a.m., dumping sixteen inches of rain, but sparing Houston and much of the upper Texas coast. By 8 a.m. today the National Weather Service still had it listed as a hurricane while it moved northeast across southwestern Louisiana. It could have been worse, said meteorologist Jeff Masters:

"Storms like Humberto give us the sobering reminder that as much as hurricane forecasting has improved in recent years, there is still much we do not understand–particularly in regards to intensity forecasting. If Humberto had had another 12-24 hours over water, it could have been a major hurricane that would have hit without enough time to evacuate those at risk."

Nevertheless, Port Arthur took a hit, with downed trees, flooding and power outages, and two tornadoes were reported near Galveston. JD, in Brazoria County, seems to have been spared, though he isn’t posting this early yet. Hurricane center does not show it, but Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi is wondering if Humberto might not curve around and get back over water…