Never mind the climate lies from Paris and the White House, nor the warm December we’ve been having so far in Central Texas, the cold is coming. Boy, is it coming, according to WeatherBell Analytics forecaster Joe Bastardi:
- Overall, a snowy, colder than normal winter is expected in the South and East
- Core of winter will be later rather then earlier
- December could be very warm with February very cold
- El Niño is a big influence but not the only factor
Snow here would be a minor miracle. It happens occasionally but only just. But in so generally warm a climate, a bitter cold and wet month (i.e. February) would be plenty impressive enough.
It’s been a cool June so far, with just a week to run. Normally we’d have been in the upper 90s day-after-day by now and, at least judging from the past few years, had a 100-degree day or two. Not this year. Nada.
All of which could have been anticipated by anyone (like me) relying on WeatherBell Analytics and especially my fav Pennsylvania forecaster Joe Bastardi (formerly of Texas A&M) who called all this way back in April.
Relatively cool and relatively wet summer, JB said, and he’s been right so far.
He and his partner Joe D’Aleo also forecast last winter’s extreme cold and they were outliers against the federal forecast of a warmer winter than usual. Of course the feds are locked into their political global-warming hogwash and always see the future through those fractured glasses. How do they walk and chew gum at the same time, I wonder?
The dystopian outlook that seems to dominate science fiction these days, particularly the apocalyptic kind, foresees an eruption of the dormant but volatile Yellowstone volcano in Wyoming as civilization shattering, especially in North America.
So does the U.S. Geologic Survey: “If another large caldera-forming eruption were to occur at Yellowstone, its effects would be worldwide. Thick ash deposits would bury vast areas of the United States, and injection of huge volumes of volcanic gases into the atmosphere could drastically affect global climate.”
Comes contrarian meteorologist Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell to say that such an eruption would likely, counter-intuitively, be a ho-hummer in most places downwind.
“Remember Mt. St. Helens. There was very little notable disruption to the climate from that. Great sunsets yes and of course the utter devastation around it, but the volcanoes that are of prime concern are in the tropics, and in the Arctic. Volcanoes in the westerlies have their ash distributed quickly, and so I don’t think this would have any real affect on the climate, or put it this way, it would be in the category of Mt St Helen[s] which was minimal…”
Lots of apocalyptic scifi authors who, along with their readers, seem to delight in imagining human misery, are going to look awfully foolish if the thing does blow and Joe is right. And things just might get a little crazy if he isn’t. But I’ll place my bets with him.
UPDATE: OTOH, as Bastardi’s colleague Joe D’Aleo notes, Jellystone has the potential to be 2,000 times the size of the Mt. St. Helens eruption.
Weather Bell Analytic meteorologist Joe Bastardi says our wind of 16 gusting to 22 mph could make us more prone to an ice storm. If it continues as the temp drops to 24 tonight.
“Deep in the Heart of Texas, the hideous specter of the ice storm is rearing its ugly head. Since the wind is blowing while precip is falling, the heating of the air that occurs through the freezing process of water is negated by evaporation due to wind…The heart of Texas will be cold and unforgiving in this pattern the next 3-5 days.”
Hasn’t happened yet. But if it does, we may be off the air, since ice buildup tends to bring down power lines, or over-weight and bring down adjacent trees which fall on the lines.
I was thinking back on Labor Day when I cut back the Antique Roses in the Back Forty whether I should go the whole hog one-third trim, or do what I did which was just give them a haircut and plan to give them another one in January, instead of waiting to Valentine’s as is customary with this breed.
Now I wish I had gone the one-third, because January could be icy (probably not snowy, that’s hardly ever true here) according to WeatherBell meteorologist Joe Bastardi. His conclusion is terse: “Another colder, snowier than normal winter is on the way, in my opinion. I would prepare using a blend of 02-03, 09-10 as two-thirds, with 04-05, 06-07 as one-third…”
If the latter half of the statement is confusing, it refers to analogue winters which is Bastardi’s favorite method of forecasting because it frequently works. The winter of 2010, for instance, was so cold here that the green elephant ears in the front beds turned black and fell on the ground. They grew back, of course, from the roots. Go here for his not very technical, reasonably easy to understand explanation with lots of pretty graphics.
Been a pleasant two weeks at the rancho, with highs in the low nineties and night-time lows in the mid-sixties. Even had some rain. Yep. Coolest start to a July since, oh, I don’t know, but there were others prior to the global warming boondoggle that’s become a billion-dollar science research industry courtesy of the feds.
Naturally, the cool has to be caused by the warming, and it’s supposedly something to do with melting Arctic Ice, according to Weather Underground. Everything is, you know. Cold, hot, rain, snow, drought. It’s Global Warming all the time. WeatherBell meteorologist Joe Bastardi explains why, in this case, as in many others, it’s pure bull. And, alas, he predicts we’ll soon be warming back up to our usual July-August stretch of 100-degree days.
UPDATE: Local meteorologist Bob Rose says it’s the coolest start to July since 1967. I knew there had to be a precedent that had zip to do with AGW.
…because the site of the official thermometer is not in accordance with NOAA’s own guidelines.
The guidelines state that such “temperature instruments should be 5 1/2 feet above a grassy surface 100 feet or more from a heat source and away from structures that can affect ventilation.”
Instead, in the federal agency’s own official photograph of the Death Valley thermometer, it appears to be sited on concrete (it obviously is not grass) and within a few feet of a building.
“And yet still the hype is turning into tripe about the 134 at Death Valley…The instrument can be accurate, but if the site is not maintained or the environment changes around it, its more than likely to read warmer!”
Of course it plays in really nicely with the federal hue and cry about global warming, i.e. climate change, i.e. we have to regulate CO2 (read, choke the economy by raising the price of electricity) to save the planet, etc. Which even some climate “scientists” ignore.
Via WeatherBell meterologist Joe D’Aleo.
UPDATE: More on the thermometer siting scandal (and it sure as hell is a scandal) from climate blogger Watts Up With That.