If you lived in the Carribbean, just think how often you’d be looking over your shoulder.
Farther west, there may even be a hurricane in store for Texas: "The Bay of Campeche disturbance (off the Western Yucatan) and an elongated wave in the far southeastern Caribbean appear to be vying for the title of Isaac."
Austin meteorologist Bob Rose says the federal Climate Prediction Center made the call Monday and the weather service will issue a news release on it tomorrow. Big rains a’comin’, probably.
"…the Climate Prediction Center stated that atmospheric conditions and oceanic temperatures in the Pacific have reached a critical threshold to declare El Nino conditions. Water temperatures in the tropical Pacific have been warming over the past couple of months. This warming combined with increased westerly trades and a negative Southern Oscillation Index all indicate the onset on El Nino.
"…El Ninos often bring Texas and the southern US increased rainfall during the fall and winter months. They also tend to bring our region cooler temperatures during the winter. El Nino will likely play a large role in our region’s weather over the next several months."
Like they say, in Texas it’s either droughtin’ or floodin’. We’ve had the former for almost a year (some say more) and the latter looks to be on the way. Some of the fall-winter storms we’ve had in El Nino years have been hellacious.
Cool days and nights here lately, thanks to a cold front on Monday and rain all day yesterday (Tuesday). Refreshing, after the dog days just departed. Indeed, August was the hottest ever in Austin and San Antonio, according to the National Weather Service.
"This is very significant," said Austin meteorologist Bob Rose, "since weather records for Austin-Mabry date all the way back to 1854 and San Antonio records date back [to] 1885."
Temperatures at the National Weather Service’s official site at Camp Mabry in West Austin "beat the previous record warm August in 1999 by 0.2 degrees," Rose said, "while San Antonio temperatures beat the previous record set in 1962 by 0.8 degrees."
Curiously, the record August heat came without any record maximum temperatures. "At Camp Mabry, the average high temperature of 100.7 degrees was the second warmest average daily high temperature on record for August," Rose said. "The average daily low temperature of 76.3 degrees becomes the warmest average low temperature on record for August.
"Note that for San Antonio, not only was August 2006 the warmest August on record, it was also the warmest month ever on record–beating the old record of 88.1 degrees set in July 1980 and July of 1998. Austin-Camp Mabry recorded 24 days with temperatures at or above 100 degrees, Austin-Bergstrom recorded 23 and San Antonio recorded 19."
No wonder I didn’t get much (any) yard work done this summer.
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Posted in Weather/Climate
Tagged August, Austin, Bergstrom, Bob Rose, hottest, Mabry, Nationa Weather Service, San Antonio
Harbinger of El Nino (and floodin’ down in Texas) or not, Ioke is a monster of a storm.
"In the western Pacific, Super Typhoon Ioke (155 mph) is forecast to track awfully close to or even over Wake Island overnight into early Thursday morning (U.S. time)," says the Weather Channel. "As of 8 pm EDT Wednesday Ioke was located about 150 miles east-southeast of Wake Island. About 200 people have been evacuated from the island. Unfortunately, if it holds its projected path, Ioke will likely submerge and devastate much of the island. Ioke has been a powerful system for the past 7 days and will make history for its intensity for such a long period of time."
Good thing it’s out in the middle of nowhere. Not good for Wake Island. Semi-impressive name (vaguely reminiscent of Greek mythology) actually is innocuous: Hawaiian for "Joyce."
Sounds silly, maybe, to make much out of the quarter to a half inch of rain that fell in torrents this morning as Mom left to take Mr. Boy to school, but it’s like that in Texas. Especially in a drought. Enlivens the spirit. Afterall, it hadn’t rained like that for two months. You can almost hear the grass growing in gratitude. Wet ground also will keep the temps down below the 100s for a few days. It’s only in the 80s at the moment. Coolest day since June. Mercy.
Bob Rose, meteorologist for the Lower Colorado River Authority in Austin, tells me my recent tally of the official 100-degree days so far in this heat heavy summer was a little low.
The official National Weather Service sites, at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, and the Texas National Guard’s headquarters at Camp Mabry in West Austin, are the ones federal meteorologists count.
"Using data through Sunday, 8/27," Bob writes, "Mabry has recorded 32 100-degree days and Bergstrom has recorded 27 so far this summer."
He said that puts the summer of 2006 in the top 10 years with 100-degree days. Camp Mabry’s 32 is a tie for 7th place with 1980. Bergstrom’s 27 is in 9th place behind 30 days in 1985. Of course these rankings will improve as summer has a few weeks to run yet.
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Posted in Weather/Climate
Drouth is the old-timey Texas spelling [straight out of the King James Bible] of drought, an on-again, off-again condition around here. Some old weathermen say that drought is the normal state of affairs in Texas. When you have a really good, long one, the ground gets so dry that the air just gets hotter and hotter, and here we are, coming up on thirty days of triple-digits. So it’s no surprise that Texas agriculture is starting to look like the drier parts of Rancho Roly Poly.
"Estimated drought losses for Texas have reached $4.1 billion, eclipsing the $2.1 billion mark set in 1998, Texas Cooperative Extension economists reported Friday…said Dr. Travis Miller, Extension agronomist. "Much of the corn and soybean crop has been harvested for silage or hay; pastures are bare and hay barns are empty. Much of the hay being fed is from out-of-state or along the upper coast, which has received favorable rains. Livestock water supplies are disappearing and ranchers are unable to sustain herds with purchased hay and dry tanks."
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Posted in Weather/Climate
Tagged Agriculture, drought, Drouth, Texas, triple-digit days
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