Tag Archives: National Weather Service

Twenty million bats on radar

Accuweather meteorologist Jesse Ferrell has a neat series of augmented radar-capture pix, plus a radar video from the NEXRAD of the Austin-San Antonio weather service office in New Braunfels, showing a cloud of bats exiting Bracken Cave, southwest of Austin. Even if some of them are radar echoes clutter (also called radar bloom), the cloud is pretty impressive.

The folly with Dolly

The New Braunfels office of the weather service is forecasting potentially heavy rains south of the rancho from Dolly’s inland track, starting Wednesday night into Thursday, although no one is sure what the track will be, specifically how far north of the mouth of the Rio Grande. All depends on the track and how big the storm is, certainly probably a hurricane when it goes ashore, but how fast will it fall apart after that? Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi (subsrcibers only) is ranting (as usual) at the hurricane center for allegedly missing Dolly’s actual location this morning, which could bring it ashore well north of Laguna Madre, in which case we could likely get a lot more rain.

UPDATE:  The Seablogger, presumably still enjoying his northeastern cruise, nevertheless has taken time out to predict a possibly severe Dolly striking as far north as Galveston! Pajamas has a nice roundup of views.

Wet ground

The National Weather Service says it’s our wet ground, from the record rain we’ve had the first seven months of the year, that’s keeping our daily highs from reaching a hundred so far. The heat index is there but not the actual temp. I had thought we’d roll right into triple-digit days this week and next, but apparently the wet ground is going to hold our highs two or three degrees below that for a while longer. Maybe into next week, as the high-pressure dome that normally creates such heat isn’t over us at the moment, but out over the Red River where it is expected to slide away to the northwest starting tomorrow. We might even get a slight cold front through here on Sunday, but without any rain. We’re leaving Monday, in any case, for our annual trip of a few days to the beach at Port Aransas.

Tropical storms please stay away

This is why Central Texans are praying the hurricane season confines itself to the Atlantic this year:

"’Everything is saturated. The rivers are at capacity, the lakes are up to capacity — any tropical system that moves into Texas is going to create a lot of problems,’ said Joe Arelleno, director of the Austin-San Antonio forecast office of the National Weather Service."

Meanwhile, we got another series of storms today. The high pressure dome we are used to sweating under in the summer decided to move to the northwest of us this year, and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is flowing in unimpeded. 

Return to dry

March ended with almost three times the amount of rain Austin normally gets. Indeed, with almost 14 inches recorded at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport since Jan. 1, we’ve already received almost half the rain we normally get in a year. But KVUE’s chief meteorologist Mark Murray expects it all to end as the La Nina weathermaker strengthens, making April a transition month back to dry. So it looks at the weather service’s Climate Prediction Center here from now through June.

Historical preciptable water

National Weather Service has an ominous few lines in its weather discussion. We’ve already had one fast-moving set of storms with no thunder or lightning but plenty of sudden, short rain:

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PW (Preciptable Water) LEVELS CLOSE TO HISTORICAL RECORDS…. THIS DOES NOT NECESSARILY TRANSLATE TO HISTORICAL FLOODING AS MARCH IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY ONE OF OUR PEAK FLOODING MONTHS. THE CONTINUOUS THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE TO A THREAT OF MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WITH THE WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION OF RAIN LIKELY TO HAVE A LARGER INFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR AREAS. 

Adios Longhorns

El Nino is being merciless, away down there off the coast of Peru, so it looks like Mr. B. and his Tiger Cub buds will not be making a Longhorns practice for the fourth Thursday in a row. Because the field at DK-Royal-Memorial Stadium will be soggy again and they’ll move the practice inside where there is no seating for cubs and parents. Oh, well, it was a cool invite. And there’s always next week, maybe, after Oklahoma State, which might be another Tech, or worse.

From the Austin-San Antonio National Weather Service Forecast Center in New Braunfels.

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. East northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Rainwise, El Nino is being merciful. Spacing it out like this–midweek now for four weeks–means we haven’t had a flash flood yet. Of course, we haven’t had a lot of rain, either, and the lakes/reservoirs are still way down.