Bob Rose and Troy Kimmel, my favorite Austin meteorologists, say we’re going to bust this drought any time now, as the strengthening El Nino in the eastern Pacific is going to bring us a rainy period this fall/winter here in Central Texas. That’ll be nice because, although the temps are dipping into the 50s overnight and the days are seldom above the low 90s, it’s still pretty dry.
"The latest measurements indicate that a couple regions of the Pacific have already reached moderate threshold while others are still categorized as weak," Rose writes. "The Nino 3.4 region, the one which typically has the greatest influence on Texas weather, is still showing weak. Overall, sea surface temperatures continue to warm…and the episode is forecast to become moderate in intensity by November or December.
"Historically, weak El Ninos typically have a somewhat dry signal for Texas. On the other hand, moderate to strong episodes show a strong correlation with above normal rainfall across Texas and the southern US. There is also a stronger signal for below normal winter temperatures with the moderate and strong events."
The outlook predicted by the National Weather Service? "…for November through February…above normal rainfall across almost all of Texas."
THE TEXAS SCRIBBLER 