Tag Archives: Gulf of Mexico

Off to the beach

Looks like Fay will not be joining us at Port Aransas, although some big waves from her intensity as she sweeps through Florida just might. It happened with Ivan in 2006. In any case we’re outta here until Thursday. Off to see the likes of Ruby Begonia, the Presidio La Bahia, and other familiar but still amazing attractions, along the trail to Port A, which is on Mustang Island in the Gulf of Mexico. Adios.

UPDATE: Returned sunburned but happy on the 21st. Drove down in the rain, and it rained off and on for a few days. But there were some afternoons when the sun came out, so the gang had a good one. Mr. B. even got to try boogie boarding, similar to surf boarding, which he pronounced strenuous but fun.

New Gulf storm?

Joe Bastardi sees one coming. So does Jeff Masters. And Alan Sullivan. From Masters:

"The four reliable computer models for forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones have been very busy the past few runs cooking up some nasty storms in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the coming week. Neither the timing nor the location of these hypothetical storms has been consistent. However, the models are insistent enough that something might happen, that I believe there is about a 40% chance we’ll see a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by week’s end."

So hold onto your hats, down there on the Texas coast. Hurricane season ain’t over until it’s over.

Tropical Depression Nine

That low that’s been churning off the Texas coast for several days has now been declared a tropical depression, south-southwest of Galveston and moving north at six mph. Tropical storm warnings have been issued from Port O’Conner, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana. It’s forecast to be a tropical storm shortly before making landfall on the Texas coast tonight.

UPDATE: Whew. That didn’t long. It’s Tropical Storm Humberto now and it’s cooking and ready to go. An AF recon sent to measure it returned to base with mechanical problems. But another is on the way. It better be. This thing is moving as fast as Allison did six years ago. Hope it doesn’t have as much rain in it. The ground all along there is ripe for flooding as it is already saturated.

Freedom from the oil ticks?

It could come yet, especially with this first, Chevron example of a vast and deep–ridiculously deep–oil well in the Gulf of Mexico. Although many more of them might mean more tar balls on the beaches at Port A, where the condo signs already warn weekend renters not to track inside what tar occasionally washes up. I suppose to make the break from Saudi Arabia, et al fully realistic, though, we’d first have to wean our various pols–including Daddy Bush–off the oil ticks’ cash. But it’s a hopeful sign for the future, anyhow. Without oil to sell, they’d have no influence at all. They still make nothing of their own, except carpets.

Via Instapundit 

The girl child

The Climate Prediction Center says that old, misnamed reprobate and hurricane-pusher La Nina could be close at hand.

"Some forecast models, especially the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), continue to predict a rapid transition to La Niña by July 2007. However, for the past few months the CFS forecasts have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. Historically, the next few months are a favorable period for the development of La Niña."

It could make for a busy hurricane season, with some storms, inevitably, rolling our way from the Gulf. 

The importance of being Ernesto

TSErnesto.jpg

Could this be our drought breaker? Tropical Storm Ernesto, which the Nat’l Weather Service expects in mid-Gulf by Wednesday as a hurricane. After that, Austin meteorologist Bob Rose says, nobody knows: "As of now, there is no clear answer as to where the storm will go…anywhere from Brownsville, Texas to Pensacola, Florida is possible. Should the storm track northwest toward Texas, it appears landfall would be late next week, possibly even next weekend due to the slower forecasted movement."

UPDATE Looks like Ernesto won’t bring Austin anything but could play hell with Mobile, Ala, and environs. Weather.com says: "Current forecasts indicate that Ernesto will be a Gulf of Mexico hurricane by Tuesday and increasing in strength as it heads toward the northern Gulf of Mexico."