Tag Archives: climate models

Specious argument

I have often, foolishly, commented that the climate modeling of anthropogenic global warming can’t be accurate since weather forecasting is so fallible. It’s a poor argument, as Andrew Dessler at Texas A&M shows:

"Predicting the weather is like predicting what the next roll [of the dice] will be. Predicting the climate is like predicting what the average and standard deviation of 1000 rolls will be. The ability to predict the statistics of the next 1000 rolls does not hinge on the ability to predict the next roll. Thus, one should not dismiss climate forecasts simply because weather forecasts are only good for a few days."

On the other hand, it’s a good argument to say that the climate models are too weak to be trusted, because the physics of the atmosphere isn’t fully understood. In other words: garbage in, garbage out.

Ana and Bill

Where to, oh storms? To Texas, hence, to shed a little rain upon our cracking, dusty drouth? As the Seablogger notes, none can say:

"We cannot model and hope for more than partial accuracy ten days out, yet politicians profess to be panicked about models of the climate a century hence. Some of them are simply grabbing for money and regulatory power. Many others believe — like the idiot Senator from Michigan, Debbie Stabenow, who thinks she can feel global warming when she flies."

So, unlike the idiot senator and her other credulous colleagues, we’ll just have to wait and see.