Tag Archives: Andrew Dessler

Specious argument

I have often, foolishly, commented that the climate modeling of anthropogenic global warming can’t be accurate since weather forecasting is so fallible. It’s a poor argument, as Andrew Dessler at Texas A&M shows:

"Predicting the weather is like predicting what the next roll [of the dice] will be. Predicting the climate is like predicting what the average and standard deviation of 1000 rolls will be. The ability to predict the statistics of the next 1000 rolls does not hinge on the ability to predict the next roll. Thus, one should not dismiss climate forecasts simply because weather forecasts are only good for a few days."

On the other hand, it’s a good argument to say that the climate models are too weak to be trusted, because the physics of the atmosphere isn’t fully understood. In other words: garbage in, garbage out.