Category Archives: Weather/Climate

Floodin down in Texas?

Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi, who grew up in College Station, is wondering if floods are to come:

"The wet spring has turned into a wet summer for the Lone Star State and now that we are almost through with June and this area is still wet, there has to be concern that the level of tropical influence needed does not have to be very high to cause problems.

"I believe we are going to descend rapidly into a moderate La Nina and the last time that happened, the hurricane season of 1998 had 7 landfalls, 3 hurricanes. The European [forecast model] August/September/October precip forecast has an almost mirror image in the gulf of the ASO 1998 rainfall. If one looks at that season, one sees that there were two tropical cyclones that hit Texas, neither hurricanes, but 2 storms full of water now, moving slowly into the state[.] [W]ithout a break from the wet pattern here for more than a couple of weeks[, that] could really mean trouble."

It looks tricky enough for the next week, all of which is forecast to rain, and rain, and rain.

Still more rain

All that flooding in England and Wales sounds familiar. If we get much more rain, we’re going to have our own flooding problems here shortly. Another 80 percent chance today and another flash flood watch. I suppose we shall all grow flippers and webs between our toes soon enough. Feast or famine.

UPDATE  The Mad Housewife is happy with all the rain. That’s good, because Bob Rose says there’s lots more to come. 

It’s a boat, 5

Got the gas aboard this morning for tomorrow’s early trip to Yacht Harbor Marina, even if the forecast is for a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms. I think the forecast is overly broad, as the area most at risk is east of I-35, not Lake Travis in the hills west of Austin. So, it’s worth a gamble. If there’s lightning in the sky, I’ll call the marina and cancel. If not, I’ll motor the 2-3 miles to their dock and tie up. Then… multiple problems. Get the jib off the forestay, and the mainsail out of the mast, detach the topping lift, lazy jacks and boom vang. Then unhitch the boom. If it’s not pouring by then, the rerigging might get done. If it is, and the rigger wants to put it off, I can always take a cab back to my car and go home.

UPDATE  Well, I find that LCRA is forecasting only 40 percent for Monday, and they run the lakes.

More rain

May set records for wet. Looks like June will set a few records of its own. More from LCRA’s Bob Rose:

"Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day through the weekend, with the possibility for some locally heavy rain. With the ground wet from previous rains, flash flooding will be a possibility. Everyone should keep up with the latest weather developments."

I can see my trip on Monday to Yacht Harbor Marina for a rerigging of the sloop could turn out to be an adventure. 

Rain, rain, go away

TexasPool.JPG

Hasn’t stopped raining for long since Friday, and this morning’s downpour was forecast as only a 20 percent chance. I guess we got all 20 percent–almost half an inch, which we can add to the other half inch of the weekend. As you can see the Texas flag is very adaptable. I suppose this was made in China, like so many other American consumer goods these days. I didn’t look.

Flood gates to open

The rains ended yesterday, but the runoff is still flowing and Lake Travis is now at 682.14, about a foot higher than it was Friday. So LCRA is making plans:

"At 4 p.m. today, LCRA plans to fully open one floodgate at Buchanan Dam and to increase releases from Mansfield Dam from about 5,000 cfs with two hydro units to about 7,500 cfs with three hydro units. Inks Lake will rise to about two feet above its spillway. Tomorrow morning at about 8 a.m., LCRA plans to open one floodgate at Mansfield Dam for a total release of about 12,000 to 13,000 cfs."

Travis still rising

LCRA says the weekend’s rain is expected to end tonight, but Lake Travis is still taking in runoff from storms in the watershed, including one area that got almost six inches overnight, and the lake is expected to be about 683 feet above mean sea level by next weekend. That would be about 18 inches above where it is now, which might put the rest of the parking lot at Anderson Mill marina underwater. With the sloop’s rerigging scheduled for Monday, the 25th, I’ll have to hope the water isn’t full of debris and boating banned by then. It should take me about thirty minutes to motor to Yacht Harbor Marina for the work, unless there’s logs and other big stuff to dodge.