Category Archives: Weather/Climate

Dolly: Goodbye Texas, Hello Mexico

I’ve exhausted the easy rhymes on Tropical Storm Dolly, which is finally nudging hurricane status at seventy-four mph but seems headed for northern Mexico instead of southern Texas. But the right quandrant of a storm is the hardiest and so the Rio Grande Valley will get the worst of whatever she has when coming ashore sometime tomorrow. In Cameron County they’re getting up the plywood and preparing for flooding. Looks like Central Texas will get no rain at all, not even enough wind to worry about, unless one of the tornadoes these things often spawn should wander up our way. Which is doubtful.

UPDATE:  The LCRA’s Bob Rose thinks we’ll get some rain, anyhow: "Rain amounts will be fairly low, generally around 0.5 inch to as high as about 1 inch.  The remnants of Dolly are forecast to track west and dissipate over the mountains of northern Mexico Friday into Saturday.  For our region, the chance for rain will decrease beginning Friday and weather conditions will return to hot and dry this weekend."

Lollygagging Dolly

It’s beginning to look more and more like Dolly will go in near the mouth of the Rio Grande, about where the hurricane center originally had it pegged. So agrees Eric Berger at the Chron. And maybe only barely a minimal, category one, hurricane, she’s been so weak so far at just fifty mph. That would be good news for most on the Texas coast, but bring us less rain than we might otherwise get to cool off our long string of hundred degree days. Heck, I even have the landscapers coming tomorrow to trim one of the back forty’s live oaks where its branches are dragging on the rancho’s roof, to save the shingles, if there were high winds from the storm’s remnants coming inland. Looks like I jumped the gun. But we’ll know more about that tomorrow.

Inconvenient Truth

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Via Rene’s Apple.

The folly with Dolly

The New Braunfels office of the weather service is forecasting potentially heavy rains south of the rancho from Dolly’s inland track, starting Wednesday night into Thursday, although no one is sure what the track will be, specifically how far north of the mouth of the Rio Grande. All depends on the track and how big the storm is, certainly probably a hurricane when it goes ashore, but how fast will it fall apart after that? Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi (subsrcibers only) is ranting (as usual) at the hurricane center for allegedly missing Dolly’s actual location this morning, which could bring it ashore well north of Laguna Madre, in which case we could likely get a lot more rain.

UPDATE:  The Seablogger, presumably still enjoying his northeastern cruise, nevertheless has taken time out to predict a possibly severe Dolly striking as far north as Galveston! Pajamas has a nice roundup of views.

Good golly, Miss Dolly

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So where’s the first tropical storm in the Gulf this season likely to wind up? So far Jeff Masters’ prediction above calls for a landfall as a minimal hurricane somewhere along the Texas-Mexico border, i.e. around Brownsville or Matamoros. For once, reduced as we often are to wishing for a hurricane to bring us some summer rain, we’ve got one that could do the job for us with a minimum of pain to others. But Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi thinks Dolly could be at least a Cat 2 by the time she reaches the border. More rain for us in Central Texas, maybe, but possibly also more pain for others along the Rio Grande.

Global warming not human fault

Oops, another dissenter. This time the dean of hurricane forecasters, Colorado State University storm prognosticator William Gray, who says not only are we unlikely to be causing global warming, but what there is of it is unlikely to foster stronger hurricanes or destroy the earth.

Quick, Al, find someone to shut him up before he imperils your scheme. Unless you’re already too busy answering other dissenters. Maybe Barbara Boxer can handle this one.

Via Fresh Bilge, which led me to this lengthy, but readable, scientific argument against Anthropogenic (human-caused) Global Warming, which led to the link above on Gray.

UPDATE:  Oops is right. Now many of the American Physical Society’s almost 50,000 physicists also are out of Al’s and Barbara’s box. Oh, where will it end?

MORE:  Then, mirabile dictu, the physicists changed their minds, again, sort of. So the scheme is still, sort of, safe for now, Gorebot. But watch the gas guzzling, okay? It’s bad for your image, oh sainted one.

108 degrees

Not here, no. In Sacramento, on Wednesday, where we left last Saturday after a week of what everyone there said was an unusual period of very pleasant temperatures, despite their lengthening drought and smoke from wildfires to the north.

Still, it’s hot enough here, though not quite as bad as when we left to go out there–a few degrees lower on the daily highs. But Jim Spencer’s forecast at KXAN is for the highs to get back to ninety-nine by the weekend with more to come. The triple-digit days are going to come back. This is the time of year when they normally start. This year they just started early, in late May. Maybe they’ll be too exhausted to return. Hope, hope.