Tag Archives: Bob Rose

El Nino returns

Austin meteorologist Bob Rose says the federal Climate Prediction Center made the call Monday and the weather service will issue a news release on it tomorrow. Big rains a’comin’, probably.

"…the Climate Prediction Center stated that atmospheric conditions and oceanic temperatures in the Pacific have reached a critical threshold to declare El Nino conditions. Water temperatures in the tropical Pacific have been warming over the past couple of months. This warming combined with increased westerly trades and a negative Southern Oscillation Index all indicate the onset on El Nino.

"…El Ninos often bring Texas and the southern US increased rainfall during the fall and winter months. They also tend to bring our region cooler temperatures during the winter. El Nino will likely play a large role in our region’s weather over the next several months."

Like they say, in Texas it’s either droughtin’ or floodin’. We’ve had the former for almost a year (some say more) and the latter looks to be on the way. Some of the fall-winter storms we’ve had in El Nino years have been hellacious.

Record scorcher

Cool days and nights here lately, thanks to a cold front on Monday and rain all day yesterday (Tuesday). Refreshing, after the dog days just departed. Indeed, August was the hottest ever in Austin and San Antonio, according to the National Weather Service. 

"This is very significant," said Austin meteorologist Bob Rose, "since weather records for Austin-Mabry date all the way back to 1854 and San Antonio records date back [to] 1885."

Temperatures at the National Weather Service’s official site at Camp Mabry in West Austin "beat the previous record warm August in 1999 by 0.2 degrees," Rose said, "while San Antonio temperatures beat the previous record set in 1962 by 0.8 degrees."

Curiously, the record August heat came without any record maximum temperatures. "At Camp Mabry, the average high temperature of 100.7 degrees was the second warmest average daily high temperature on record for August," Rose said. "The average daily low temperature of 76.3 degrees becomes the warmest average low temperature on record for August.

"Note that for San Antonio, not only was August 2006 the warmest August on record, it was also the warmest month ever on record–beating the old record of 88.1 degrees set in July 1980 and July of 1998. Austin-Camp Mabry recorded 24 days with temperatures at or above 100 degrees, Austin-Bergstrom recorded 23 and San Antonio recorded 19."

No wonder I didn’t get much (any) yard work done this summer.

And no relief in sight

"We hit a high of 103 degrees at [Austin’s] Camp Mabry [this] afternoon! This marks the seventh day in a row of a high temperature over 100 degrees in Austin. It also marks the 20th 100 degree day this summer."

No relief? Well, the National Weather Service is predicting some but LCRA’s Bob Rose doubts it.

"I find it very interesting that the latest 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks from National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center call for below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall across a large part of Texas for the latter half of August. None of the forecast modeling I see supports this bold prediction. I’ll be curious to see if this forecast continues the next couple of days."

We’re havin’ a heat wave

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Dog days

The triple-digit days are upon us here in Central Texas and can be expected to remain a while, though hopefully not all the way through Labor Day as they have in the past.

But meteorologist Bob Rose of the Lower Colorado River Authority isn’t encouraging:

"…this is Texas weather in mid July and weather conditions are typically consistently hot and dry. Long-range forecasts show little change over the next week or so. Even the tropical Atlantic remains quiet, with little organized activity to speak of. Hot and mostly dry weather will continue in the near term with no significant changes expected any time soon."

Bob’s full take here

UPDATE Officially it was only 98 today, but there were a few backyard thermometers topping 100. National Weather Service forecasting 100s the rest of the weekend and into next week. A heat index tomorrow as high as 106.