Never mind the climate lies from Paris and the White House, nor the warm December we’ve been having so far in Central Texas, the cold is coming. Boy, is it coming, according to WeatherBell Analytics forecaster Joe Bastardi:
- Overall, a snowy, colder than normal winter is expected in the South and East
- Core of winter will be later rather then earlier
- December could be very warm with February very cold
- El Niño is a big influence but not the only factor
Snow here would be a minor miracle. It happens occasionally but only just. But in so generally warm a climate, a bitter cold and wet month (i.e. February) would be plenty impressive enough.
I was thinking back on Labor Day when I cut back the Antique Roses in the Back Forty whether I should go the whole hog one-third trim, or do what I did which was just give them a haircut and plan to give them another one in January, instead of waiting to Valentine’s as is customary with this breed.
Now I wish I had gone the one-third, because January could be icy (probably not snowy, that’s hardly ever true here) according to WeatherBell meteorologist Joe Bastardi. His conclusion is terse: “Another colder, snowier than normal winter is on the way, in my opinion. I would prepare using a blend of 02-03, 09-10 as two-thirds, with 04-05, 06-07 as one-third…”
If the latter half of the statement is confusing, it refers to analogue winters which is Bastardi’s favorite method of forecasting because it frequently works. The winter of 2010, for instance, was so cold here that the green elephant ears in the front beds turned black and fell on the ground. They grew back, of course, from the roots. Go here for his not very technical, reasonably easy to understand explanation with lots of pretty graphics.