Tag Archives: hurricanes

Hurricanes a’comin’

By the end of the week, we could have the first one entering the Gulf of Mexico, says Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi. The western Caribbean sure is warm enough. Where will it head after that? Somewhere from northern Florida west around the coast to Tampico.

Unfortunately for the Texas coast, hurricanes spin counterclockwise which might bring some of the oil spill to our beaches, relieving the northern coast beaches that have gotten it so far. Might just disperse it. Or not. We’ll have to wait and see. But JB is calling for three storms to hit the spill.

Ana and Bill

Where to, oh storms? To Texas, hence, to shed a little rain upon our cracking, dusty drouth? As the Seablogger notes, none can say:

"We cannot model and hope for more than partial accuracy ten days out, yet politicians profess to be panicked about models of the climate a century hence. Some of them are simply grabbing for money and regulatory power. Many others believe — like the idiot Senator from Michigan, Debbie Stabenow, who thinks she can feel global warming when she flies."

So, unlike the idiot senator and her other credulous colleagues, we’ll just have to wait and see.

The quiet before the storm

Not referring to the Russian-Georgian deal, or even Baby Barry’s vacation before his presumed coronation two weeks away, but the two three tropical waves from the African coast which seem likely to become hurricanes before the week is out. It’s selfish to wish one of them on the Gulf of Mexico, just so we might get a little more rain, given the chance of death and destruction. So we won’t go there.

Global warming not human fault

Oops, another dissenter. This time the dean of hurricane forecasters, Colorado State University storm prognosticator William Gray, who says not only are we unlikely to be causing global warming, but what there is of it is unlikely to foster stronger hurricanes or destroy the earth.

Quick, Al, find someone to shut him up before he imperils your scheme. Unless you’re already too busy answering other dissenters. Maybe Barbara Boxer can handle this one.

Via Fresh Bilge, which led me to this lengthy, but readable, scientific argument against Anthropogenic (human-caused) Global Warming, which led to the link above on Gray.

UPDATE:  Oops is right. Now many of the American Physical Society’s almost 50,000 physicists also are out of Al’s and Barbara’s box. Oh, where will it end?

MORE:  Then, mirabile dictu, the physicists changed their minds, again, sort of. So the scheme is still, sort of, safe for now, Gorebot. But watch the gas guzzling, okay? It’s bad for your image, oh sainted one.

TS Dean around the corner?

LCRA meteorologist Bob Rose notes a situation that the forecast models foresee in the Gulf that could serve to draw in any tropical storm forming in the western Carribbean and crossing the Yucatan peninsula by Monday:

"…low and mid-level winds in the atmosphere will be blowing from the southeastern Gulf towards the Texas/Mexican coast much of next week.  Should any disturbance try to develop, it would be steered to the western Gulf.  The latest readings show water temperatures in Gulf of Mexico are as warm, and in some places even warmer than they were in the very active season of 2005."

Fortunately, the forecasters say any landfall could be as far south of Texas as Tampico, Mexico.

Uh oh

Now that we’re getting ready to head for the beach on the middle Texas coast on Monday, the Seablogger is watching something brewing down around Hispaniola that could become a storm in the Gulf of Mexico before long. It certainly is time for some hurricanes, as we near their late August peak season. Just not around Port Aransas, please.

The girl child

The Climate Prediction Center says that old, misnamed reprobate and hurricane-pusher La Nina could be close at hand.

"Some forecast models, especially the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), continue to predict a rapid transition to La Niña by July 2007. However, for the past few months the CFS forecasts have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. Historically, the next few months are a favorable period for the development of La Niña."

It could make for a busy hurricane season, with some storms, inevitably, rolling our way from the Gulf.