Tag Archives: Joe Bastardi

Will Irene do an Ike?

Joe Bastardi, late of Accuweather, now forecasting for a start-up called Weather BELL, thinks (as of this afternoon) that Hurricane Irene is of the “genre” of Hurricane Ike which whacked Galveston in 2008. Same low central pressure calculation (950 mb), he says, and a tighter eye than Ike as Irene moves north “riding a path only seen a couple of times in  200 years.”

The picture above is of the Bolivar Peninsula near Galveston which Ike cleared of vacation homes and the people still in them who had refused to leave. So, while some forecasters are calling hype on Irene, Joe is betting parts of the Northeast Coast are going to look something like the above.

Hope not. But there it is. We shall see.

UPDATE:  She did not, in the sense that she did not produce Ike’s storm surge waves that cleared Bolivar. So far, inland flooding is her big story.

UPDATE: As of 9/29: At least ten billion dollars in damages and 40 deaths, so far. Epic flooding of rivers and streams from Irene’s drenching rains, from North Carolina north to Vermont.

People who refused evacuation are now surrounded by rising floodwaters. Albany, NY, as far inland as that is, is having 100-year flooding. Irene was not the wimp some are saying she was.

Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you’ve got

Somehow, in all my other distractions, I managed to miss Joe Bastardi’s February departure from Accuweather. Part of it was letting my Pro subscription lapse last summer when I had to get a new credit card and forgot to update my account. When they finally got around to asking for the update, I decided to let it go.

Bastardi was fun to read (and to listen to his brief video forecasts) but his focus wandered and I could have a hard time understanding him. I also got a little tired (despite agreeing with him) of his anti-AGW rants. But I always figured I could resume my sub if I got to missing him.

Then I got busy with the three (yes!) books I’m writing, and my spring trip to Israel. Only noticed the other day that old JB had gone missing because I always liked to hear his latest hurricane forecast and we’re coming up on the active part of that season right now.

Well, turns out he’s the new chief meteor of a start-up called Weatherbell, frequently appears on Fox, does guest shots on WUWT, and still Tweets (though how he can compress his natural verbosity into a Tweet is beyond me). My only question is does he still end his forecasts with the famous (and funny) line that’s the title of this post? Or does Accuweather claim to own it? I may have to subscribe to his new gig to find out.

Hurricanes a’comin’

By the end of the week, we could have the first one entering the Gulf of Mexico, says Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi. The western Caribbean sure is warm enough. Where will it head after that? Somewhere from northern Florida west around the coast to Tampico.

Unfortunately for the Texas coast, hurricanes spin counterclockwise which might bring some of the oil spill to our beaches, relieving the northern coast beaches that have gotten it so far. Might just disperse it. Or not. We’ll have to wait and see. But JB is calling for three storms to hit the spill.

Moment to moment

Confluence of events here. Mrs. C., whose best friend is dying, was distraught last night about how the friend and others she relies on are all older than she and so she will have to face their deaths. Probably so, I said, and paraphrased Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi’s tag line (“Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you’ve got”) as: “Enjoy the moment, it’s the only moment you’ve got.”

Because we live in the present, always. The past is beyond retrieval and the future never arrives. Or as John Stuart Mill put it in 1874 (found in Jack McDevitt’s space opera Seeker, which I’m reading at the moment, so to speak): “The past and the future are alike shrouded for us: We neither know the origin of anything which is, nor its final destination.” What a life. The only one we’ve got.

La Nina or no?

Why does it matter? If she arrives early, say mid- to late-summer, we could have another dry scorcher. Then, as she strengthens in the fall into the winter, a warmer and drier winter. Or not.

The LCRA’s Bob Rose is on board for her early arrival, along with NOAA and Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi. But Anthony Watts at WUWT has a neat nay-saying article we might cross our fingers on. Because, among other things, La Nina would bring a stronger hurricane season. Which, this year, could mean pushing much more of that Gulf crude oil much farther ashore into Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Maybe even turn it the other way and push some of it into Texas.

More snow?

Could be. After Sunday’s high in the low 80s (yep), the temp fell to 40 by midnight at the rancho. Supposed to be colder tonight and then up to an inch is in our forecast for Tuesday. And Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi says:

“By the way, this looks like the worst last week of Feb weather I can remember in Texas since I have been studying maps. It is interesting how late snowfalls are getting more common there, and earlier snowfalls too. If Dallas misses Tuesday IT’S CAUSE WACO AND COLLEGE STATION GET IT! In other words they miss to the south.”

Just not this far south, if you please. Although Mr. B. would be thrilled..

UPDATE: The forecast changed this morning to a ninety percent chance of snow Tuesday and the amount was upped to between two and four inches. Then, this afternoon, it was back to one-half to one inch.

“The Warmest October in Human History”

That’s this year, according to NASA’s shrill sign-waving climate "scientist" James Hansen, and it was the opening line of the Copenhagen climate conference. As if the gang that couldn’t keep from destroying two space shuttles, killing everyone aboard including a school teacher they recruited for the privilege, could possibly know what happened to the October temperature in All. Of. Human. History.

Is that unfair? Maybe. But their "warmest October in human history" prompts it because the claim is so obviously stupid. Better to say, to paraphrase Accuweather meteorologist Joe Bastardi: [It’s] "the warmest you ever measured with the way you measured it." Which is a lot more accurate, but not sufficiently alarming, apparently. Not enough to keep the grant money flowing to sustain the bureaucracy they created getting to the moon. For what? To come home and trash the enabling technology and never go again.

SciFi writer Jerry Pournelle, likewise, is skeptical: "…few of us would have thought that last October was all that warm. Didn’t seem that warm to me, and my impression from the radio and TV was that it was actually pretty cold." Moreover, others were finding a flaw in the data. It was cool enough in Texas, in a precursor to our latest early winter–now into the start of its third week of overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Which is unusually cold for us this time of year. The "sleeping" sun seems a lot more potentially devastating to me than any supposed rise in sea level fifty years from now, according to, ahem, the famous crockumentarian Al Gore.

Bastardi again: "Go look back through all the data, and understand that you can’t measure at the time of Rome, or the Vikings, or the Great Depression, the way you measure things now… Al Gore, who doesn’t have the guts to debate anyone on this issue, a man who may soon be a carbon billionaire, is claiming people who are fighting him are in the pockets of polluters. You do the math."